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Opinion
It is back to headquarters this week for a big ten-race card.
I’m starting midway through with a few shorties before hopefully kicking home a couple at double figures late in the day. I’m using 12 units and hinging a fair packet of it on Brutality in the last from the outside gate.
Last week
Outlay: 14 units
Return: 6.4 units
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 319 units
Return: 410.2 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 4 – 9 The Face (two units)
Yes, he’s short enough, but The Face has a bit on his opponents here. His first-up run was in really fast time, and his next run behind Forbidden Love stacks up too.
Race 5 – 5 Rule of Law (one unit)
Another one right in the market, Rule of Law is looking towards bigger and brighter things. He comes in off a good trial win. Geist is a nice horse as well and if revved up could be in the finish.
Race 6 – 4 Sacramento (one unit)
Sacramento’s win last time was fantastic. He was exposed pulling the field up to a runaway leader but had too much fight and held them off. He’s fitter again and is extending towards his best distance range. Stick with him. Another one of my faves Accountability is back after a short break and is right in it at his best. Poulton Le Sands is an absolute blowout.
Race 7 – 9 St Covet’s Spirit (two units)
I am going back-to-back with Sam Clipperton. St Covet’s Spirit hasn’t had much luck recently, including last start where the winner pocketed her when she was building for a late charge. I have this as a very winnable race if she can find her best and finally get some luck.
Race 8 – 6 Cradle Mountain (one unit)
Today’s speculator comes via Cradle Mountain. He pops up from time to time at a price and he’s suited here. Yes to the dry track, he won the race last year and his second-up numbers are a tick. There was an issue last go but I’m trusting he’s right. We’ll know at the 150. Order Again was the other one in the numbers and early money is for it if you like your curries mild.
Race 9 – Dame Kiri (one unit)
Oh Dame Kiri! This horse was too far back on a track favouring leaders when I had a bucket on her a fortnight ago, but ran on well to nab third. I like the step to the mile and think she’s the right price. It is a good race. Majella, Zing and Selica are all in the mix. Invinciano gets her chance on a dry track.
Race 10 – 14 Brutality (four units)
Brutality got too far back off an outside draw last time and charged home for third. He’s drawn the Coach and Horses Hotel again for this, but could be a few rows closer if Kathy can do her thing. The extra 100 metres is a definite tick and the firm track is no issue. The 52.5 kilos is irresistible. I’ve booked dinner in his name.
Good luck and good punting, stay safe and pray for Brutality!
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