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Opinion
We head back to Randwick this Saturday for the return of several serious autumn players, highlighted by the restricted, big-money Inglis Millenium.
It’s generally coming up Tommy Berry in my numbers, here’s hoping he has a Christmas in February and we can fill our pockets.
Ten units are in play. There are no bets in the first three races. Written Beauty is a good thing but I will watch at a price like $1.40. Maybe Paper Daisy in the two-year-old race?
Last week
Outlay: 9 units
Return: 15.4 units
2020-21 season (since 1 August)
Outlay: 340 units
Return: 433.7 units
Stats are based on one unit being equal to a $1 win bet, New South Wales dividends. See the comments for any changes based on scratchings or track condition.
Race 4 – 9 Maui Girl (one unit)
I am happy to have a nibble at Maui Girl to start the day. She’s been racing consistently without winning and normally runs well in this sort of grade. Louise Day is a big plus of course, as is the good barrier. She’s overs. Tepario is the danger. This horse is unbeaten on slow tracks and this is her trip. The Waterhouse-Clark combo scares me too. Madam Legend is next in line. Brazen Gem has had enough chances.
Race 6 – 2 Prague (one unit)
New stable, old form? Hopefully the shift to the Neasham yard (on fire) does the trick for Prague. He was potentially the best suited to 1200 metres of the big guns. This horse has trialled well. I could make an each-way case for The Face and Vreneli at odds. Both have a fitness edge and will go forward.
Race 7 – 10 Dame Giselle (two units)
Dame Giselle just kept winning for me in the Spring, and I don’t see a reason to jump off now. She’s come back nicely, looking at her quiet trial behind Nature Strip and Bivouac. I am an Ole Kirk fan but he might be better over further. I am wary of The Bopper.
Race 8 – 8 All Time Legend (five units)
This is almost an empty-the-pockets job. All Time Legend is short but rated levels above the others here. He was a tragedy beaten last start when I went around him. He now gets a huge weight drop and will look to make amends. The only other horse I could entertain was Quackerjack, but there was a big gulf between them in my numbers.
Race 9 – 8 Zing (one unit)
I’m a bit surprised to see Zing at almost $10 in this. She’s normally right in the market and has been going well enough. I’m red-penning last start after she went back from the bad draw. I expect her to be up with them this time and she should be in the finish. Blinkers on first time is another tick. It’s tightly rated behind her. Derbari, Pitchfork, Blaze a Trail and even St Covet’s Spirit will likely go in my quaddie.
Good luck and good punting. If you’re into doubles it’s probably that sort of day.
It looks a cracking card at Caulfield too. If you’re interested, I’ll be taking Best of Days, Snapdancer and Imaging in Races 6, 7 and 8.
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