Opinion
The Premier League season often brings with it sides cemented as relegated before a ball has been kicked.
Fulham, brandished with that tag this season, are a yo-yo side, as are Norwich City. Bournemouth were also drawn into the firing line at the dawn of season 2022-23.
Yet, currently the battle for relegation is tight.
The bottom three – Nottingham Forest, Wolves, and Leicester – sit on nine, ten, and 11 points respectively. The gap between the Foxes and 17th-placed Southampton is a single point, while the gap from 20th to ninth-placed Liverpool is seven points.
Seventh-placed Fulham (yes, seventh-placed Fulham) are closer to the drop than to first-placed Arsenal.
To put that into context, after 13 match weeks last season the gap between 20th and tenth was 12 points and even then, Newcastle United, who were cemented at the bottom of the ladder, marched away out of relegation trouble with relative ease come the back end of the season and have carried that form into this year’s European fight.
So are there teams locked in to go down? Or are we going to see a repeat of the 2002-03 season when West Ham were relegated with 42 points?
Aside from the five clubs above – West Ham, Leicester, Southampton, Forest, and Wolves – the other six outfits sandwiched into the mathematical relegation danger zone are Brentford, Everton, Crystal Palace, Bournemouth, Aston Villa, and Leeds United.
West Ham have the squad to offset the potential damages their European escapades might cause. Everton too look resilient and revitalised after last season, where they flirted with the drop so much a first date was organised. Frank Lampard’s side is exceptionally organised defensively and welcome Dominic Calvert-Lewin back a long injury lay off.
Frank Lampard. (Photo by Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Crystal Palace appear safe having collected ten points in their last five games – only Newcastle and Manchester United have collected more. Leicester have turned the tide of their early season form, despite where they currently rest on the table, with seven points in their last five games.
Manager-less Bournemouth too seem capable of the previously believed unlikely, fighting valiantly in every encounter, proving many doubters wrong.
Brentford teeter on the edge of relegation, as they did last season. This time feels different, the lessons of last year well indoctrinated in Thomas Frank’s side as they continue being a beacon of energy, relentlessly pressing, with quick breaks.
That leaves us with the sides with more to do to rescue themselves.
Aston Villa lost their manager, trounced Brentford 4-0, then were on the wrong end of the same scoreline against a buoyant Newcastle.
Unai Emery is a fantastic manager, don’t let Arsenal fans tell you otherwise. Hopefully the brilliant Spaniard, who shockingly traded a European fight at Villarreal for a relegation contest with Aston Villa, can instil something they lacked under Steven Gerrard: a clear identity.
Wolves and Forest both find themselves at the bottom of the table for points and goals, having scored six and eight respectively.
Wolves’ tally is the lowest after 13 games since Burnley scored the same amount in the 2020-21 campaign – where they secured safety. And without Raul Jimenez, Sasa Kalajdzic and Diego Costa – sent off for a very on-brand headbutt of Ben Mee at the weekend – they lack a true focal point for the flurry of creative yet unprolific players around them.
Nottingham Forest, who went against the grain of sides in strife and re-signed their manager Steve Cooper on a five-year deal earlier in October, also lead the Premier League for goals conceded (28). Perhaps a side that signed at the rate and cost of Forest, we shouldn’t be surprised this is happening. After all, only Marcelo Bielsa’s Leeds avoided spending any time in the relegation zone after spending over 100 million euros in the season after promotion.
On Leeds, a late victory against Liverpool secured a first win since their 3-0 thumping of Chelsea late in August. A propensity to win games they shouldn’t but lose games they should win is thrilling for club and fans, yet it could prove costly. Worrying as well is Patrick Bamford’s stalled form since his injury return. The Englishman is yet to score, although Rodrigo’s purple patch does offset this in some capacity. How long can it last?
Finally, we have Southampton. Perhaps the most confusing side the Premier League. Are they good? Are they bad? Are they stuck in perpetual and endless tug-of-war between the two?
They’ve beaten Chelsea and held Arsenal to a draw and have only conceded more than two goals twice – a 4-1 opening day loss to Spurs and a 4-0 loss to Manchester City in October that could’ve been 7-0. Of the sides lying outside the drop, the Saints may just be in the most danger; the antelope peacefully drinking on the water’s edge as the crocodile silently pursues it below the surface.
In a relegation scrap, goals are like oxygen. Those comfortable with their creative capabilities float gracefully on their backs above the water, allowing the incoming tide to pass beneath them without thought or worry. Those without them are squashed under those same waves, each time they rise for a breath they are quickly forced back down again by the force of their deficiencies.
The common denominator with all these teams is their lack of goals. Brentford and Leeds are the only sides in the top half of the table for expected goals – seventh and ninth respectively – Villa are 12th, while the rest of the threatened sides accommodate the bottom six in the xG rankings.
It is true that a leaky defence scarcely helps the cause. Burnley were relegated with the tenth-best defence in the league last season because they had the 19th-worst attacking output.
One thing to remember about the Premier League drop is it’s a slippery slope, a slide enhanced by water and dish soap, a phenomenon with an unparalleled gravitational pull.
Sides can analyse the league table, get comfortable with the cushion of points they’ve acquired and wind up in a poor run of form, unable to string it together, compose themselves and withdraw themselves from the dogfight.
Competition runs right through the Premier League this season, perhaps no more so than at the bottom.
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