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It’s silly season. We’ve gone through the finals, the World Cup and the November 1 deadline after which, NRL players who are out of contract for 2024 can discuss terms with other clubs. With that in mind, we’re launching Smart Signings, our new series on who NRL clubs should be targeting to address their biggest weaknesses, using the players that are actually available to them.
It’s a good time to be a Newcastle fan. Sure, they might have been rubbish last season, and sure, they might fire their coach 10 minutes into the 2023 premiership, but look on the bright side: you won’t have to pay for flights to Brisbane for Magic Round.
But seriously, there is a grain of truth in the idea that things are looking for up for the Knights. They’ve ditched two underperforming halves in Anthony Milford – the stopgap’s stopgap – and Jake Clifford, and brought in one overperforming half in Jackson Hastings.
Who stands alongside him is as-yet-unknown, but don’t bet against it being Kalyn Ponga. Yes, the Kalyn Konundrum is set to run again with the signing of Will Pryce, one of the best young players in Super League, for 2023.
Pryce is probably best at fullback, begging the question of whether he might get that role going forward with Ponga switched to five eighth. For me, there’s a lot of sense in that.
Ponga is best when he has hands on the footy and has shown his willingness to do that from the back, but it could be improved yet further with the star man more involved.
His 32 touches per game is right up there with the most – adjusted to possession numbers, he was third in the NRL in 2022 – and his former teammate Tex Hoy is second, showing the willingness of Adam O’Brien to run his fullback as chief playmaker.
That 32 is still well down on what a five eighth gets, however, with the top exponents there averaging above 40 and some close to 50. That’s 33% more potential Ponga moments if he was shifted to the front line.
Will Pryce. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
With a more dominant half coming in, it might still be possible to do that. Hastings touches the ball more than anyone in the NRL when he plays 7 and was averaging above 90 possessions before moving to lock later in the year. If he plays, that’s where the ball is going to go.
It creates the potential for the 6 to just attack, play with a run-first mentality and let the other bloke do the other stuff. If you think Ponga could defend in the front line – or, at least, that he would do it better than Pryce – then it’s a no-brainer.
Let’s cycle back a bit and assess where Newcastle could do with some help. They were among the worst attacking teams in the comp, in alongside the Bulldogs and Warriors – remember, both of whom sacked their coaches – on just shy of 2.9 tries per game.
As you might expect over the course of a 25-game season, their underlying numbers backed this up.
They were among the worst for line breaks and line engagements too, indicating that they didn’t threaten enough with the ball. They were nearly last for attacking kicks and forced drop outs.
However, Newcastle were right in the middle of the pack on metres, general play passes and tackles within 20. They also had among the best in kick return metres and, in Enari Tuala and Dom Young, two wingers who could start a set.
To parse those rankings: Newcastle were actually not that bad – like midtable, rather than outright basement – in the forwards, and could make yards early in the set. They could move into position well enough, but failed to challenge the line and, when they ran out of tackles, failed to get repeats.
If you haven’t guessed it yet, what you are looking at here is a team with bad halves. That they have let Milford walk and punted Clifford shows that, at some level, they know this too.
Jackson Hastings. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
So how could they improve? Their stocks are Hastings, nailed for the 7 jumper, plus Adam Clune, an adequate lower-end NRL replacement halfback.
There’s Phoenix Crossland, who you have to assume will continue in the No.14 jersey, new signing and star of nominative determinism Tyson Gamble, the now-injured Simi Sasagi and, of course, Ponga.
In the interests of being a completist, if they were to shift Ponga, they have another fullback in Bailey Hodgson, yet to make his NRL debut after a bad injury but highly touted and signed to their top 30, plus, of course, Pryce to arrive in 2024.
The smart signing angle is a little difficult because, to my mind at least, they have already done it. Hastings is the smartest signing possible, because he does all the bit of halves play that Ponga doesn’t really want to do, while allowing their star man to interject when he can.
Notably, Newcastle had already scoped this plan out by attempting to tempt a running, workrate fullback in Reuben Garrick, before he re-signed with Manly as a winger. If they were willing to pay fullback money for him, they must have done so with the idea of shifting Ponga to 6.
As it stands, and If they continue to run Kurt Mann as a ball-playing lock, then you could slot in a competent but fundamentally limited player in Gamble, who will make his tackles and generally not look out of place while handing the keys to Hastings and allowing Ponga to do what he did last year, but more so from the back.
It might bump the tryscoring potential up enough to get the Knights from 14th to, say, 10th, while allowing for experimentation later in the year or during Origin with Hodgson, in advance of Pryce arriving in 2024.
Will Pryce. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Pryce, for what it is worth, is a pure runner and, in theory, the perfect foil to a very-controlling halfback like Hastings.
I find it impossible that an NRL side will run a Super League-developed five-eighth from the beginning of his time in the comp for defensive reasons. If Pryce continues in that role in Super League, it might *might* be possible.
The Knights should be battering the door down now to get him for 2023 and, even if he starts in the NSW Cup, he’d be in the NRL by Origin.
Alternatively, they could return to the Garrick archetype by enquiring over for Nick Meaney, in his last contract year and also a goalkicker: Newcastle ran last in percentage last year and Hastings, slated to kick this year, went at 62%.
If they could get a loan on Sunia Turuva…wow. His potential upside is huge and he needs to get regular minutes, which he won’t at Penrith, especially not all fullback. A one-year deal might suit all parties.
They could also attempt to offer Brayden Trindall – off contract in 2024 at the Sharks and miles away from the 6 jersey, but better than anyone Newcastle have – or Lachlan Miller, to take over at 1.
The other key area of weakness is in their edge defence and back row. Newcastle conceded 5.6 line breaks per game with Dane Gagai the worst in the NRL on that metric.
That’s a function of Gagai getting older: he’s 31 now, but centres age very badly and got a lot of miles on the footy clock, having debuted in 2011 and played just shy of 250 NRL games.
There are, by my count, just two – Andrew Ettingshausen and Josh Morris – among the 45 players to have made it to 300 games who played the bulk of their career, as Gagai has, in the centres.
It’s hard to say how much of the dramatic fall in output is Gagai dropping off and how much is poor cohesion inside of him – plus a rookie outside in Young – but either way, it’s been one of the biggest issues for O’Brien.
They don’t really need a replacement, however, as Krystian Mapapalangi is already slated to come in on one edge, while hope springs eternal that Bradman Best can stay on the field long enough to hold up another.
O’Brien had floated the idea of Gagai going back to the wing, presumably with Mapapalangi getting a proper run to start off. Greg Marzhew just signed as well for an edge.
(Photo by Ashley Feder/Getty Images)
The pack, however, is anyone’s guess. David Klemmer and Mitch Barnett have left, but have been replaced by a fellow big man, Jack Hetherington, and the ultimate utility man, Adam Elliott.
There’s also Oryn Keeley, who debuted last year, is their best player in Flegg and played u-19s Origin for NSW. You can add another Pom, with Kai Pearce-Paul set to join at the same time as Pryce.
Let’s imagine a pack that had the Saifiti brothers starting either side of Jayden Brailey, with Tyson Frizell and Elliott behind Mann at 13.
You’d get two of Hetherington, Leo Thompson, Mat Croker, Jack Johns and Brodie Jones for your senior guys off the bench, plus Keeley to throw in too. They’re not world-beaters, but they’re also not terrible. You can see a world where Newcastle muscle up, get into position and then deliver the ball to Hastings and Ponga for magic.
If you really wanted to bolster stocks, Michael Chee Kam would probably love the chance not to have to play another year in reserve grade and, on his day, can add the attacking spark that Newcastle have lacked. Tyrell Fuimaono is also in his final year and would improve the standard in the back row.
If that side can stay on the field – and the Knights had one of the worst injury lists last year – then they wouldn’t finish 14th, that’s for sure.
Going into 2024, they would have the likes of Keeley, Pryce and Pearce-Paul to come in, plus Mapapalangi with another year under his belt.
From their best 17, Young, Frizell, Tuala, Mann and Fitzgibbon are entering their final year and it’s realistic to suggest all except Young are playing for a contract. If Young continues his good form, he’ll likely get one somewhere better than Newcastle.
Hymel Hunt, Jones, Clune and Hodgson are also in contract years from their fringe players. Given that the Knights are not yet in rebuild phase, this could prove the perfect time to transition towards the finals from the very bottom.
The 2024 forecast is already looking a lot brighter for Newcastle, even if 2023 is a little shaky. The smart signings might have already happened, just a year out.