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It’s silly season. We’ve gone through the finals, the World Cup and the November 1 deadline after which, NRL players who are out of contract for 2024 can discuss terms with other clubs. With that in mind, we’re launching Smart Signings, our new series on who NRL clubs should be targeting to address their biggest weaknesses, using the players that are actually available to them.
The Canberra Raiders, you will remember, finished eighth last year. They were also, if you remember, simultaneously lucky to do so and unlucky not to be higher.
Their record of 14 wins was good enough for the last finals spot, but would have got them a home final in 2019 and top four in 2016, but they also needed one of the all-time great collapses from Brisbane to secure their spot with a win in the last game of the regular season.
It was never easy to get a read on the Raiders. They beat the Sharks (twice), Roosters, Rabbitohs and Storm in Melbourne twice, once in the regular season and then again in the finals.
They also lost to the Warriors in shambolic circumstances, threw away big leads and generally looked like absolutely anything could happen, a lot of the time.
So how does one get a read on the roster, and how does one identify how it might improve year-on-year?
Firstly, it’s worth saying that they lost basically their entire spine early: Jamal Fogarty went down injured before a ball had been kicked, then Josh Hodgson went down within 10 minutes of the season starting. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad began the year at fullback and ended it in reggies. That disruption will do for anyone.
But what of 2023? They haven’t signed anyone more than Pasami Saulo, a depth option, and have lost Hodgson, CNK, Ryan Sutton and Adam Elliott from their ranks.
Their NSW Cup side was solid at best, and while you might be able to promote a few – Ata Mariota and Trey Mooney would be first cabs off the rank – there isn’t an obvious standout.
Looking at the team that won in Melbourne in the finals, it is clear why they think David Fifita might be an option. Elliott Whitehead seems destined to move to lock and, unless they give Mooney or Mariota a go, they need to strengthen second row.
Losing Elliott and Sutton is a big issue, because both are exactly the sort of solid options that you need if you want to get the most out of Joseph Tapine and Josh Papali’i.
Sutton might have only featured for 42 minutes per game on average, but his ability to main intensity, especially defensively, when called upon was vital, while Elliott is the epitome of a solid team player. Emre Guler and Corey Horsburgh could play the way they did because of those other two on the bench.
The Smart Signing, then, would be David Fifita. For me, the other name floated – Jeremiah Nanai – is a lot more risky. He’s had one outstanding year in first grade, but is still very young and currently overpriced in the market.
Fifita was also (lest we forget) also an incredibly hyped teenager who played Origin at a young age, was bought above market value and then failed to deliver on his price tag. He’s the cautionary tale here. Smart money buys the elite player on a bad run – who is still just 22 – and gives him space to shine.
(Photo by Jono Searle/Getty Images)
The stats would tell you that second row might not be the area of focus. The Raiders were eighth in the ladder but a fair drop off the rest of the finals sides on pointscoring, with their backline, in particular, a cause for concern.
Jordan Rapana and Nick Cotric were well behind the average NRL winger in run metres, tackle breaks and kick return metres, as were their centres, Matt Timoko and Seb Kris.
This could be a function of play style and cap distribution: their strength is the pack, so Papali’i and Tapine are used more for yardage than other teams might use their forwards, which impacts how many metres are available to the backs.
However: the better teams have better production from their backline, which is a general trend across the NRL, and the chances of the Raiders going much higher than eighth are limited by their ability to generate set starts.
Whitehead is 33, Rapana is also 32 and Papa is 30, so the chances of their production improving in the next year or two is pretty slim and this might be the time to look to cash in on assets while they still have value to someone else. Hodgson might a good blueprint in this regard.
There is youth there: Xavier Savage is a bright talent and already ranking very highly in key statistical categories for fullbacks. As he gets used to grade and smooths off the clearly very rough edges, that bodes well.
Albert Hopoate might be in that boat too, if given more of a crack. His numbers at NSW Cup level would suggest that he is ready for more first grade.
Matt Ikuvalu, currently a fair distance off a jersey at the Sharks and in his last contract year, might be convinced to truck the ball in aggressively in a more sustainable manner than, say, Rapana.
Ricky Stuart currently plays a forwards-first power game that puts a lot of creativity into the hands of his two star props. The offload numbers, and the starting pair’s stats for line break assists and try assists, confirm their creative role.
The other two, Horsburgh and Guler, are competent for the time that they are there but very much second fiddle to be used while the starters rest.
There’s a strong argument that those two bench options are at their ceiling as players and, unless Mariota or Mooney can come in an elevate to that level, then Sutton and Elliott will be big misses.
If you want to play the power game – see also: Parramatta – you have to be able to maintain it over 80 minutes, which they often weren’t able to do. They were once the Canberra Faders, remember.
On the other hand, when they were able to do it they tended to be alright. The second recruitment question largely lies in how they seek to replace the two bench options they lost to maintain the rage.
David Fifita (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
Horsburgh and Guler, plus Corey Harawira-Naira, aren’t it. They could do a bit better in terms of maintenance, or a lot better in terms of impact. Ricky would love to add a third wildcard to go with Josh and Joey, or even to allow him to extract more from those two in shorter does.
If we’re being honest, they would love the chance to add a nuggety back-rower in the style of a John Bateman, or a competent first-grader not getting a proper crack, like a Jaeman Salmon, but you can insert your own joke.
How would a Tevita Pangai jnr, freed from the pressure of a ridiculous contract at the Bulldogs, flourish in a system that actually told him to play like he wants to play, all aggression and offloads. If Jarrod Croker could be convinced to retire, suddenly cap space would open up. Spencer Leniu, on the market for 2024, would be perfect too and could eventually replace Papali’i.
For a steadier type, either of the back-rowers at Newtown, Kayne Kalache and Charbel Tarsipane, are overdue an NRL debut and don’t seem particularly close, while Wiremu Greig is close to the top of a lot of the metrics for impact forwards while never getting near a Parramatta squad.
The established path from the Super League to Canberra would be perfect for a Morgan Knowles, and the unhinged maniac policy that keeps Horsburgh and CHN in jobs could be very entertaining for Victor Radley’s sparring partner, James Bentley, who averages 36 tackles a game in the back row. He’s Super League’s answer to Adam Elliott, but with a lot more aggression.
Sticky certainly doesn’t need my assistance on this one, but, if you’re reading, Stick, make it happen: TVP and James Bentley. In the same team. As Horsburgh and Harawira-Naira. I’ll get you the parking spot at Driver Ave booked now for the disciplinary hearings.