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Opinion
The countdown to Round 1, 2023 has officially begun – so throughout January, I’ll be looking at all 18 AFL clubs and doing my best to put together an optimum team for the new year.
I’ll take injuries and suspensions into account, but this won’t be a predicted team for Round 1 – think of it more as a guide to what your team’s best 23 (the 22 starting players plus the new unrestricted substitute) could look like as the year unfolds.
On the agenda today is Hawthorn. Check out the links below if your team has already been done.
>> Goalsneaks galore, but who holds the fort down back for the Crows this year?
>> More new guns than they know what to do with, how do the Lions fit everyone in?
>> Is this the team that can take Carlton from heartbreak to happiness?
>> Why Tom Mitchell looms as recruit of the year for never-say-die Pies
>> The Bombers have promise… but can Brad Scott unlock it straight away?
>> Can the most important teenager in the AFL deliver for the Dockers?
>> Is this the Cat who can fill the shoes of the greatest captain ever?
>> Can return of the King propel the Suns into September at last?
>> Just how Tiger-like will Adam Kingsley make his Giants?
Perhaps only North Melbourne have lower expectations on them heading into 2023 than the Hawks. With Sam Mitchell going full scorched-earth on his list and waving goodbye to first-choice midfielders Jaeger O’Meara and Tom Mitchell, as well as a group of veterans and premiership heroes bidding farewell, it’s officially the end of an era for the club.
Mitchell did superbly to turn the Hawks into a competitive outfit last year despite limited personnel; he established a strong defensive structure and a highly efficient forward line, despite getting regularly smashed out of the midfield.
But with those stocks diminishing even further, he’ll have a heck of a job even repeating an 8-14 win-loss record, with the Hawks among the wooden spoon favourites since last year’s trade period ended.
Mitchell wanted his own team, not Alastair Clarkson’s – and he’s certainly got his way. Now it’s time to find out what exactly he plans to do with the ragtag band he has at his disposal.
The Hawks might have finished in the bottom four for points against last season, but considering only North Melbourne and West Coast conceded more inside 50s, that’s a reasonable effort.
Indeed, their stunning smashing of Port Adelaide in Round 2 epitomised what this unit might become with a little time and patience: the Hawks conceded 58 inside 50s to the Power, but through a combination of a strong structure and some woeful inside-50 entries, restricted Port to just seven goals and won by 64 points.
The group is marshalled by James Sicily, who really should have been All-Australian last year after a phenomenal return from a knee injury. Sicily is an intercept king while also frequently standing the opposition’s best tall: as Tom Lynch proved against him, it’s not always a sound plan, but he is good enough to handle most of the key forwards he comes up against.
The Hawks don’t really have a true monster-stopper as a key back, with Sam Frost about the closest approximation. Up until injury wiped out the back end of his 2022, he was a Hawks regular since crossing from Melbourne at the end of 2019, and it’s hard to see that changing, especially with Denver Grainger-Barras still learning the caper as a young tall entering his third year.
Grainger-Barras’ progress has been slow, and he’s probably been asked to do too much defensively to allow his intercept game, which pushed him high up the draft order as a junior, to flourish. Nevertheless, in a transitional year, there’s absolutely no reason why Mitchell and co. shouldn’t get as many games into him as possible to further his development. If Frost and Sicily can take the main talls, that should only help.
The Hawks also have a handy stable of smaller options, each fulfilling different roles. Blake Hardwick is a tough as teak traditional small forward stopper, and it’s been a long time since he wasn’t a best 22 lock. I’m convinced Jack Scrimshaw could be an All-Australian contender in a better team, but his mix of clean skills by foot and rangy height to pull down intercept marks – he ranked equal 23rd in the stat last year, right alongside Max Gawn, despite missing two games and being subbed out early in two more.
In a similar boat is Will Day, who hasn’t really kicked on from an outstanding debut season in 2020. Regular injuries haven’t helped, but he’s got immense capacity as a rangy, rebounding half-back in the Grant Birchall mould, and could even spend time on the wing this year.
The game-breaker is Changkuoth Jiath, whose raw pace and willingness to take the game on stands out like a sore thumb at the Hawks. One of the most thrilling players in the game to watch at full flight, I would love to see him at least tried in the midfield at some point this year, but as it stands he’s simply too valuable dashing off half-back to be used anywhere else.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
It was pretty clear from the get-go last year that Mitchell didn’t really rate what his namesake Tom Mitchell brought to the table in the engine room. He attended just 53 per cent of all centre bounces in 2022 as he shifted to an outside role – down from 74 per cent as recently as 2020 – while another traded-out Hawk in Jaeger O’Meara was likewise starved of centre bounce opportunities at times.
The result was that the Hawks ranked dead last for average clearances last year, 13th for contested possessions, and by extension 14th for average inside 50s. Winning the ball at the source was a constant problem, and one largely of Mitchell’s own making given his desire to forge a new-look midfield.
Mitchell and O’Meara’s departure adds more responsibility onto the shoulders of Jai Newcombe, who has risen in just 18 months from mid-season recruit to the Hawks’ premier midfielder. A constant presence around the ball for the Hawks, Newcombe tackles ferociously, wins his own ball and is more than decent by hand and foot.
The Hawks have a beauty in Newcombe – but he can’t do it all alone. Which is where James Worpel comes in.
I maintain that there hasn’t been as precipitous a fall from any one player since 2019 as Worpel has endured. Remember he won the Hawks’ best and fairest that year as a 20-year old with the world at his feet?
Mitchell missed that season with a broken leg, and under Alastair Clarkson, Worpel ceded midfield control to him and O’Meara. In 2021, the real start of his downward spiral, he attended 58 per cent of the Hawks’ centre bounces, a drop of seven per cent from the year prior.
Whether it was form-based or rotations-based, Worpel just didn’t get a regular chance to do what he does best – attack the ball like a man possessed.
Newcombe’s arrival and rise to stardom pushed him down the pecking order even further, but with Mitchell AND O’Meara now gone, Worpel has an opportunity.
He’s now the official second seed in the Hawks’ midfield behind Newcombe, and should be first choice in the midfield rotation. With an extended pre-season under his belt after a shoulder injury prematurely ended his 2022, he should be chomping at the bit to re-establish himself.
Josh Ward, tagger Finn Maginness and the big-bodied Conor Nash will also be among those vying for more on-ball opportunities, and Ward at the least will get plenty. But I still remember what Worpel produced from a young age, how he went into a head-on collision with Joel Selwood and came out with ball in hand in his seventh game, and I refuse to believe he doesn’t have more to give as a bona fide AFL talent.
New draftee Cameron Mackenzie seems likely to follow the plan Ward did in his debut season last year, where he was exposed to stints on-ball but not truly part of the rotation. Ward was a regular at centre bounces in the first five rounds of 2022, but as the season wore on and his young body became fatigued, he spent more time in the VFL and then in a half-forward role at AFL level.
Karl Amon‘s arrival gives the Hawks an attacking wingman option they’ve needed since Isaac Smith departed; between the former Port Adelaide gun and the impressive Harry Morrison, who excelled last year as a space-finding winger for the outlet kick coming out of defence, the Hawks should have both wings covered.
The retirement of Ben McEvoy makes the ruck a fascinating conundrum at the Hawks: Mitchell has three big men at his disposal, none of whom are the finished article, and all questionable whether they can work together in tandem.
Ned Reeves will likely be his first choice: a man mountain, he has strugged with injury throughout his career to date, but his size and wingspan allow him to win scores of hitouts. Around the ground, he’s nowhere near McEvoy’s level yet, but rucks, especially ones of Reeves’ size, take time.
Slightly more developed is Lloyd Meek, with the former Docker having spent much of his career so far behind Sean Darcy in the pecking order. He hasn’t been recruited simply to play backup: Reeves isn’t capable just yet of rucking solo, and Meek’s monster frame will likely make him a more palatable option as a forward-ruck than the other contender, Max Lynch.
Meek won rave reviews at the Dockers for his ruckwork at WAFL level, so don’t be surprised if he becomes the number one man by season’s end.
James Worpel (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
The Hawks don’t get it to their forwards much – so it’s an impressive effort that they finished last year ranked 11th for total points in the home-and-away season.
With a strong rebound game, a forward line usually with plenty of open space into, and a string of crafty forwards, the Hawks have real talent up front – if they can get it to them enough.
The loss of Jack Gunston is a blow, though – not only was he one of the last remaining links to the Hawks’ 2013-2015 dynasty, but he was an experienced, crafty forward always good for two or three goals a game, and a capable foil for the ultra-impressive Mitch Lewis.
His 32 goals, as well as his smarts, are just about impossible to replace, but the Hawks have got to try with Jacob Koschitzke. A semi-regular across his two seasons at the Hawks, his 36 career games have yielded 45 goals, which is about what you can expect from him for the moment.
The positive is he is a good deal bigger than Gunston, and at 22 has plenty of improvement still in him. With the veteran gone, it will be interesting to see how Koschitzke and Lewis work in tandem: does Koschitzke roam higher up the ground and leave Lewis the main man in attack, the role Gunston played last year; or will Lewis be the primary target at all times when going inside 50.
Either way, Lewis is the key in how far the Hawks go. At times unstoppable in the air, the 24-year old is an outstanding contested mark and, for the most part, an accurate kick for goal.
His best is breathtaking – games against the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide particularly eye-catching – and if he can stay fit after missing seven games in 2022, he’ll easily push 50 goals for the season.
It’s a massive, massive season for Chad Wingard, too. One of the few experienced Hawks who didn’t find a new home, Mitchell essentially put an end to any attempts to turn him into an on-baller, stationing him in the forward line for the majority of the year.
That meant a sizeable drop in his numbers, averaging just 12 disposals a game in 2022 compared to 22 in 2021, but he did manage 17 goals in 10 games before injury struck. His hamstrings are always going to be an issue, especially now he’s on the cusp of turning 30, but Wingard remains one of the few capable game-breakers the Hawks have on their list.
And I maintain he’d give the Hawks an extra bit of spark around the ball if he was given the occasional midfield stint.
You can basically lock in Luke Breust to do what he has done for years: play nearly every game, lead hard, gather crumbs at ground level, pressure fiercely and kick somewhere between 40 and 50 goals for the season. With Gunston gone, his role in shepherding a still inexperienced attack will be crucial, and having committed again to the Hawks and resisted the lure of finishing his career elsewhere (for now), his final years as a teacher might end up being almost as important as his role in the Hawks mid-2010s machine.
It’s arguable that Hawthorn’s best player right now is Dylan Moore, who broke out spectacularly in 2022 as a goalsneak-cum-midfielder. No doubt he’ll spend plenty of time around the ball in 2023, as he did from Rounds 17-21 last year; however, his first port of call might be as a dangerous forward.
Both Breust and Wingard are in the twilight of their careers, making Moore the one small forward that can be relied upon to complete a full season without injury or general soreness striking. There will come a day when Moore becomes a first-choice midfielder: but for now, he’s too valuable a goalscoring option to give that up.
It’s worth noting, too, that he averaged more than 25 disposals during that five-week stint in the engine room, but kicked just two goals.
Like Ward and Grainger-Barras, it’s imperative that Mitchell pump as many games into Connor Macdonald as possible. His first 20 games at AFL level were about what you could expect from a first-year player: full of energy, sparky around the ball, without becoming a consistent ball-winner.
He essentially played a heavily outside game, mostly on the half-forward line with stints on the wing, but he excelled as a junior in a more traditional midfield role. I’d be surprised to not see him occasionally enter a centre bounce here or there this year, but he’ll probably need another year or two of development, especially as an undersized player, to come anywhere near permanent midfielder status.
(Michael Dodge/Getty Images)
Backs: Blake Hardwick, Sam Frost, James Sicily (c)
Half-backs: Changkuoth Jiath, Denver Grainger-Barras, Jack Scrimshaw
Centres: Karl Amon, Jai Newcombe, Harry Morrison
Followers: Ned Reeves, James Worpel, Josh Ward
Half-forwards: Dylan Moore, Jacob Koschitzke, Connor Macdonald
Forwards: Chad Wingard, Mitch Lewis, Luke Breust
Interchange: Will Day, Finn Maginness, Lloyd Meek, Cameron Mackenzie
Substitute: Conor Nash
Emergencies: Sam Butler, Jarman Impey, Cooper Stephens
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