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Opinion
This is the time of year when almost all rugby league fans live in hope that new-signings, incident-free pre-seasons and player development will see their teams improve on what they produced the season prior.
Incident-free seasons are already off the table for a few clubs.
Supporters of the premiers hope that things stay very much the same, with the odd tweak aiding in a continuation of the success, yet for others, the guesswork and predictive period is well underway.
The 2023 season has already thrown up a host of, at this stage, unanswerable questions, which could become key talking points throughout the year.
What exactly will Wayne Bennett’s Dolphins look like in their first season? Will Craig Bellamy again brush off significant player losses to have his mighty Storm competing late in the year? What of a Tigers squad including John Bateman, David Klemmer, Apisai Koroisau, Isaiah Papali’i and Charlie Staines, with Tim Sheens back at the helm?
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And will the garage of Ferrari’s assembled by Phil Gould at Canterbury finally turn the fortunes of a club in desperate need of doing so?
As this stage, there are no definitive answers, plenty of opinions and bookmakers are wading through the quagmire in an attempt to frame-up what looks another compelling season.
(Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
No matter how clever the odds-makers may be, there has to be some value in there, on teams whose pre-season expectations are about to be out-stripped by their 2023 on-field performances.
An in-depth look at the odds offered by PlayUp suggests there could well be some value in the premiership market. Whilst the Panthers are kept safe at $4.00, the Roosters do look good value at $5.50, a team stacked with talent and now improved with the addition of Brandon Smith.
Perhaps the best offerings are on the Cowboys and Sharks to continue on from their excellent 2022 seasons, with $11 and $13 respectively being offered about their chances of raising the trophy.
A few might be able to ignore the rumblings up north and back Kevin Walters to thumb his nose at critics with a $17 premiership win, others might see a Bulldog miracle as possible at $21 or envision an Eels long-awaited triumph at $15. Frankly, those numbers all look a little skinny to me.
The best stab in the dark is potentially the Tigers at a whopping $51, terrific value considering the recruitment, yet also potentially one of the greatest NRL shocks. Have a crack at it Tigers fans, I will not be.
Dolphins coach Wayne Bennett talks to his players during training. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)
While Parramatta lose Reed Mahoney, Josh Hodgson arrives and should the Englishman strike his best form, the blue and golds might be excellent value for a top four finish at $3.25. That market seems quite conservative, with perhaps the Rabbitohs at $2.75 and the Bulldogs at $5, the only other places were the return seems fair.
The usual suspects will be locked away in most people’s top-eight predictions, but the probability of new teams featuring in the finals is real.
The Dolphins at $7.50 is a stretch, yet a dip at the Knights ($6.00), Wests Tigers ($4.50) or the Dragons at $4 looks a fair yet hopeful investment.
The Sea Eagles ($2.60), Bulldogs ($2.10) and Raiders ($2.10), who made it last year, appear to be the three teams on the cusp of contention in the market.
While a Manly pay-out with Tom Trbojevic returning to his old self would be a tidy one, the odds listed for the other two are simply not tempting enough.
Josh Addo-Carr looks an obvious contender for the seasons’ top try-scorer crown, and at $9, I will be having a little piece of the action.
Alex Johnston is kept safe at $5, yet Roosters duo Daniel Tupou and Joseph Suaalii are both $17 hopes and certain to attract interest. Also at $17 is Trbojevic, whose fitness and potential minutes make him a curious case in the market.
Nathan Cleary heads the season’s top pointscorer market and barring injury, should be an automatic collect at $4.00. Valentine Holmes ($6.50) does look the big threat to Cleary, yet Zac Lomax ($41), Mitchell Moses ($23.00) and Matt Burton ($41) might well be worth a look, in the hope that their clubs do indeed fire this season.
(Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Should many pundits prove correct, the Dolphins might be an easy earn at $2.75 to secure the least wins across the regular season, although the Warriors ($6.50) might draw plenty of interest in the hope that Bennett is about the produce something impressive in Redcliffe.
With the Panthers, Roosters and Storm in the top lines of betting to make the grand final, the value may well be just below them. Todd Payten’s Cowboys ($5.50) and Jason Demetriou’s Bunnies ($6.50) will win plenty of matches in 2023 and considering the potential return, could well be worth the investment.
While relatively simple to take the extremely short odds about the Panthers across numerous markets, or the $1.01 for the Dolphins to miss the top four, the real fun in wagering is spotting something a little out of the ordinary, tempting and unnoticed by others.
Good luck in finding one for season 2023, it looms as one of opportunity for many.