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Opinion
The AFL is a national competition. Has been for a while, as a matter of fact. People forget that, myself included. In my previous piece, I focused exclusively on Victorian clubs. That is my mistake, particularly given interstate fans have a persecution complex that would make Australian Catholics blush.
The game is the same as it was in the original piece. We pit two different clubs against each other and decide which one is better placed over either the next three or five years, taking into account list profile, club infrastructure and just general vibe, and history of success around the club.
Would you rather be Adelaide or Port Adelaide for the next three years?
These two teams seem to be the AFL’s embodiment of the end of the Industry Super Fund ads, with one smiley standing on an elevator going up and another smiley person on an elevator going down.
Adelaide is going up, Port is going down.
Over five years, therefore, this is an extremely easy game. It would be Adelaide. Last year they were both the youngest and least experienced list in the AFL yet they ranked first in tackles, third in clearances and fifth in rebound 50s, all of which indicate they were fairly ferocious in the middle and were able to transition the ball reasonably well while winning eight games.
A good backbone from which to build especially for a young list with a few fading stars, Rory Laid excluded.
Rory Laird of the Crows (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
But in 2023, their success must, again, be built on the kids. Up forward they are talented but unproven with Darcy Fogarty, Josh Rachele and Izak Rankine all being relied upon to pick up the slack left by David Duke if his slippage continues.
In the middle, it’s time to see if there is the talent already on the list to pick up the slack. The talent is good enough to achieve this.
You’ll note that this has focused entirely on Adelaide so far. It’s because we know what Port are. They’ve been the same for years, they were just worse at it last year. They have a coach on a seat that has been warm for at least six years.
The old stagers have been metronomic but are starting to drop off either in terms of their form or actually retiring. The young talent that enlivened them in 2019 has proven to be more sizzle than steak, despite what Kane Cornes wants you to think.
Was last year a blip or the start of a pattern?
For this exercise, it doesn’t matter.
Verdict: Adelaide
Would you rather be Fremantle or West Coast for the next five years?
Fremantle is a bit like Adelaide, if Adelaide were better last year and West Coast are a bit like Port if Port were worse and older last year.
West Coast were the fourth-oldest, third-most-experienced team in footy in 2022. They’ve shed some experience and some age for 2023 but they’re still ninth oldest and sixth most experienced. They finished 17th.
They’ve done the Nicholas Cage circa 2023: old, bad, expensive.
They were last or next to last in virtually every single category that mattered but most telling was the effort stats: last in one percenters, last in contested ball, second last in tackles inside 50 (if I kept going with stats that said West Coast were bad in this would be longer and more tragic than Raging Bull).
Fremantle was the opposite. Young and talented. Freo enter 2023 with the third-youngest and the second-least-experienced list, but they are a genuine contender in most people’s eyes after finishing fifth last year with a percentage of 117.
They have a young superstar midfield led by Angus Brayshaw which helped Freo to be the second-best stoppage team in footy who led the league in uncontested and effective possessions. They also were fourth for tackles inside 50, largely thanks to Lachie Schulz finally displaying an understanding of how best to win games in the modern era, even if they didn’t score enough to be a true threat last year (a persistent Fremantle problem).
Finally, they had a dominant defence around Alex Pearce and Luke Ryan.
This, really, shouldn’t be even close based on the on-field product. So why are we doing it? Fremantle are one of the most profoundly unsuccessful clubs in the history of the AFL. For 13 out of their 27 years in the AFL they have finished in the bottom four and they have never won a premiership.
Even after a year in 2022 that should have been roundly positive there was a mass exodus of (admittedly B-grade talent).
West Coast, on the other hand, are serial winners with the deepest pockets in the AFL. Since Fremantle joined the competition, West Coast have won twice and have won four times in their history, with the first of their premierships coming in their fifth year of existence and their second in their seventh.
When they bottom out, historically, it hasn’t lasted for very long. For instance, most recently from 2008-10, just after the lurid events of 05-06, they came 15th, 11th, and 16th.
In 2011 they were fourth.
West Coast are succeeders, Fremantle are failers.
Even despite that, the on-field evidence is too much.
Verdict: Fremantle.
Would you rather be Brisbane or Geelong for the next three years?
This one is the closest. Both teams are older, talent-laden, highly successful. Honestly, there isn’t much between these two sides other than the premiership (which, I accept, is significant).
Geelong head into the year as the oldest and most experienced list in footy, where Brisbane are third and fourth in those categories respectively.
Geelong led the league in scoring and point differential in 2022 on the way to finishing atop the ladder and holding the cup. Brisbane, on the other hand, had a marginally down year by their standards finishing fifth while still finishing third in scoring and fifth in point differential.
Virtually all of the truly excellent players that are on the two lists in 2023 either won’t be on the list 2025 or won’t be as excellent anymore so really picking nits about the players isn’t worth doing.
This is a bet on the infrastructure. For the 11 years of Chris Scott’s coaching career he has won virtually 70 per cent of his games, has never lost more than ten games in a season, and has never finished worse than tenth.
He has made the prelim eight times. Chris Scott making the prelim has been a safer bet than Tom Brady making the conference championship game.
Brisbane have been phenomenally successful under Fagan as well, particularly given the state that the club was in when he took over. In the last four years Fagan has made two prelims and two semi-finals, consistently winning more than 15 games when finals are included.
But he’s an older man with a club infrastructure that is far less stable than Geelong’s.
This is a bet on the laundry.
Verdict: Geelong.
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