The AFL season is almost upon us once again. I guess that means it’s time for my annual contribution to the absurd discourse by giving it absolutely none of my own consideration and leaving the constitution of this list to chance; much like a teenager getting an AI to write their essay on the themes of generational trauma in Hamlet.
For anyone who hasn’t read previous years’ versions, I have randomised the list of all the AFL teams and will now try to justify the resulting order as my “predicted” ladder for the coming season.
18. Adelaide
Something not too bad from the randomiser to get us started.
The Crows were quite bad last year; not historically bad, but not as much improvement as they’d like to have had by this point in the rebuild.
With another year in their young kids, you’d hope the climb starts getting some momentum this season. However, Rory Sloane and Taylor Walker are still key pieces, and they’re older and, with Sloane coming back from a knee reconstruction, slower.
They have some young players like Darcy Fogarty and Ben Keays who look like they’ll be positive elements going forward.
I’ve seen some tip the Crows to make a push for the top eight, but according to the randomiser that’s like someone trying to sing “Bohemian Rhapsody” by themselves at karaoke night: a little too ambitious.
17. Brisbane
Ooooooof. This is a bit more difficult to justify.
After breaking through for some excellent wins in the finals last year, including their first win at the MCG in years, apparently the Lions are going to completely collapse this season.
As such I’m going to project the wildest of outcomes: their potent forward line is struck by every injury discovered by physiotherapy (and some new ones too), the Olympic construction has to start earlier so they’re kicked out of the Gabba midgame, and the coaching staff is caught out funnelling money to a seasteading Ponzi scheme.
I don’t know. You try coming up with a reason for the Lions to come second last.
Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrates a goal. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
16. West Coast
A nice lay down misère from the randomiser now.
The Eagles are really very bad. They got a premiership out of their time at the top so their fans can’t be too upset – but there’s going to be some long winters until they start their climb back up the mountain.
Previously their only wooden spoon was followed by a preliminary final berth the next year, and they only missed last year’s bottom spot by a handful of percentage points. I don’t think anyone but the most one-eyed fans are expecting such a turnaround this year.
They need to hoard talent, particularly WA talent, and get some experience into any promising youngsters they currently have. That’ll mean a lot more heavy losses but, with a bit of luck, they’ll get to reap the rewards in a couple of years.
15. Hawthorn
Another prediction that isn’t stretching a long bow.
The Hawks offloaded several experienced players last season in a bid to fast-track their renewal and build the squad Sam Mitchell wants. While it may pay off in the long run, there’s going to be some short-term pain as an inexperienced list tries to get used to their new circumstances.
It’s not exactly clear what sort of approach the Hawks will take to tactics. Will Mitchell follow his former coach and emphasise precise disposals or will he forge a path with tough and scrappy defence? Picking James Sicily as captain suggests that he may want to build from the backs forward; that or he only picks captains named after his favourite islands.
Such a process takes time though. It’s rare for coaches to have immediate success when starting off in such a state as what Hawthorn was in when the previous coach left. I wonder what happened to him; he seems to have stayed away from football and out of the news since leaving.
Anyway, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Hawks knock off some finals teams while losing to the bottom four teams this year. It’s the sort of situation they’re in right now.
14. Western Bulldogs
I can’t believe the Bulldogs would struggle after losing Josh Dunkley and picking up Rory Lobb. That seems like such a winning swap. Maybe this randomiser doesn’t know what it’s talking about.
Luke Beveridge will go down in Bulldogs history as the second coach to receive a premiership for that club. However, his time at the club can be summed up in one word: inconsistent.
From year to year they may be premiership contenders or miss the finals entirely. Even the playing list doesn’t have consistency as players leave and seem eager to dump on what they experienced at the Whitten Oval.
It could be they could do with some renewal in the front office. Sometimes success can cruel a team. Moving on from their golden period rather than trying to recapture lightning in a bottle could be healthier for the Dogs in the long run.
Or wallow in mediocrity – honestly, I’d prefer that.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
13. Fremantle
The Dockers were one of the surprise packets from last year. They shot up into the finals and even managed to win one after a stirring comeback. I was even cheering for them for once in that game.
Sadly, it looks like this season will be a difficult second album.
They’ve picked up Luke Jackson from the Demons, but I don’t think that’ll move the needle too much; and Jaeger O’Meara is probably too injured to have much of an impact too. The loss of the Once and Future Docker David Mundy will be a hard one for the club to adjust to as well.
I enjoyed how the Dockers approached last season. I feel they’re one or two players away from competing. For instance, if they manage to somehow convince Brisbane to give up Lachie Neale they should get there.
Maybe Freo should invest in some hypnotism lessons this year.
12. Port Adelaide
Magpies/Power fans rejoice, your Hinkleyian nightmare is nearly over.
After years of feeling like but not quite being competitors, Port fell out of the top 8 last year. To put it mildly, there’s something off about them. Their forwards don’t quite feel dangerous enough, their midfielders don’t feel dominant enough and their defenders don’t feel stingy enough.
That’s not to say they don’t have some excellent players in those positions. Ollie Wines is one of the best going around right now, and Aliir Aliir is a wonderful key defender. It’s just that the rest of the squad feels like they are missing something. A je ne sais quoi that I can’t quite put my finger on.
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I think the big problem is coaching: they lack a tactical mastermind to cover-up and adapt to their flaws. A good coach makes finals; a great coach wins them. It seems like Ken Hinkley is not the latter, so Port need to go searching for someone who is.
11. Melbourne
Well, this is a fall.
From a drought breaking premiership to straight sets exit to missing the eight entirely; at least the snowfields will get their crowds back this year.
Melbourne have gone all-in on grabbing another premiership quickly. They have grabbed Brody Grundy to become even more dominant in the ruck. However, as seen last year, teams can get on top of them quickly and momentum is a killer. If teams start roving to Gawndy then their advantage almost disappears. And it was very obvious in games in the second half of last season that they find it very difficult to arrest other teams’ momentum when things aren’t going their way.
The Demons’ trajectory is much like every crypto investment since they started advertising all over the place: going downhill very fast. At least Melbourne fans are used to that with all their skiing trips.
Max Gawn and Mason Cox battle. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images).
10. Essendon
It’s a truth universally acknowledged that the Bombers have not been an example of good club management in the last two decades. It’s been nearly that long since they won a final.
From Matthew Knights to James Hird to Mark Thompson to Hird again to John Worsfold to Ben Rutten to now Brad “Fighter-Bomber” Scott, as they would say in the military: SSDD.
Essendon need to build a new culture and squad and that takes time – not something they’ve given their coaches much of lately.
That’s not to say they have nothing to build off. They have some real promising younger talents like Ash McGrath and Jordan Ridley and Brandon “what we’d all like to do to Margaret” Zerk-Thatcher.
If they can build from the middle out and keep some constancy in the coaching department, they can start to move back into finals. Maybe they’ll even win one before my kid graduates university.
9. North Melbourne
It’s been a rough couple of years for the Shinboners. Since Brad Scott left in mid-2019, they’ve had Rhyce Shaw and David Noble guide the club to a total of 15 wins.
It’s not a great surprise that they’ve gone searching for a messiah-like figure to lead the club. However, as I’m going through a conversion, I don’t have much faith in messiahs.
Alastair Clarkson is one of the most successful coaches of the AFL era, and some would argue that he is one of the best; but it’s not like he didn’t have help. He was fortunate to have some all-time great players at Hawthorn, for instance.
Plus, after those players left or passed their prime, it looked like the game had got away from him. Since the 2015 flag, the Hawks have made the finals only twice, and didn’t win a match in either of those finals series.
That’s not to say there’s nothing for North nuffies to look forward to. Nick Larkey looks like he could be the first Kangaroo Coleman medalist since John Longmire. Recent picks Harry Sheezel and George Wardlaw could be long-term successes, assuming they don’t ask to be traded this off-season.
However, I don’t think they’ll have the cleanliness in the clutch moments to win enough games to make the eight this year. That’s okay, since the same thing happened with Brad Scott’s first years at Arden St, and that lead to years of success… right?
8. Geelong
I’ve had some bad hangovers in my life; too much of a good thing applies to alcohol more than almost anything.
The Cats broke through to another premiership after a tortuously long drought of almost a dozen years, a sort of vindication for coach Chris Scott and captain Joel Selwood. Can the old folks home of the league run it back?
Apparently not, says the randomiser. Hangovers take a longer time to recover from when you’re older, so it makes sense that the Cats will not be a top-four team this time. It’ll take them until the bye rounds to not have a headache.
The thing that will keep the Cats inside the finals for another year is an excellent second half of the season . Once the potent twin-headed monster that is the Jeremy Cameron-Tom Hawkins duo gets rolling, the scores they put up will be hard to match. I wouldn’t be surprised if one of these two manages to nab another Coleman medal this year.
As for finals wins, well, at least they’re doing better than the Hawks of ’09 or the Dogs of ’17.
Tom Stewart of the Cats celebrates. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
7. Sydney
If there’s one thing worse than a hangover after a good night, it’s a hangover after a bad night.
I’m sure there were plenty of Swans fans who decided the best response to their team not turning up on Grand Final day was to ensure that they wouldn’t be able to remember a second of it. I can’t endorse that treatment for everyone, but I can say that was my approach when my team failed similarly in their Grand Final appearance.
But to this season now: in Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, the Swans have not only two of the most exciting young players, but also two of the best names as well. They’ll be the key to any success the Swans have in the next few years. Buddy has come back for one more year, but personally I feel he should have packed it in at the end of 2022.
6. Gold Coast
Looks like there’ll be Dew on the grass this Suntember. A breakthrough up there with the great inventions of Babbage and Guttenberg: the Gold Coast Suns are going to the AFL Finals. Took ’em long enough.
I’m actually fairly confident in this projection. With Ben King back and Mabior Chol coming off his best year, they look very dangerous up forward; King in particular should be aiming for 50 goals. Plus, Touk Miller should be a contender for the Brownlow this season, giving them excellent leadership in the midfield.
If they can avoid the injury plague and become more like the driver of a manual car by being more clutch, I see no reason why there won’t be a maiden finals appearance this year.
5. GWS
I’m not just a Giants fan in the AFL; I’m also a Giants fan in the NFL.
For those unaware, the New York Giants hired a respected assistant coach and with an unheralded roster climbed up the rankings to make the playoffs, even managing to win their first playoff game. Clearly, the stars are aligned for my other Giants to do similar.
Finn Callaghan and Tom Green are two young guns that could have young Nathan Buckley-esque seasons; plus, if Jesse Hogan can stay healthy and new captain Toby Greene can stay out of trouble, than inexperienced key forwards like Jake Riccardi and number one draft pick Aaron Cadman could develop into very dangerous targets.
They’ll need Sam Taylor to have another All-Australian year in defence, plus some more help from Nick Haynes and development from Leek Aleer; but I think their defence can improve thanks to the new coaching staff bringing some fresh ideas to the squad.
Plus I really want them to be good again.
4. St Kilda
Urgh. This year is going to make too many insufferable coaches happy; or whatever emotion they experience instead of joy. Epicaricacy, I suppose.
The one thing you can always say about Ross Lyon, without heavy strike-throughs from the editors, is that defensive tactics are at the forefront of any of his plans. The Saints’ defence has not been a strength the last few years, even in their finals appearance in 2020. With a stingy defence, they can improve their win total very easily.
However, the ultimate victory will elude the Saints and Lyon again. This Saints team is nowhere near as stacked as the one Ross the Dross had in the late 00s, or the Dockers team of the mid-10s. I think they’ll be blown out in the finals by the other top four teams.
Ross Lyon addresses his St Kilda players. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
3. Richmond
Not again. Just when I think I’m out, they pull me back in.
It’s been so long since Richmond have been entertainingly mediocre that Ninthmond is starting to not make sense. It’s just not fair for the kids of the future to miss out on the fun that is “We finished 9th again”.
As it is, the Tigers aren’t quite done with competing yet. While their premiership stars like Jack Riewoldt and Trent “envelope of cash” Cotchin are heading downhill towards retirement, they’ve rejuvenated their stocks by raiding my team.
Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper will be very handy pick-ups and I’m not at all salty at losing them, because I’ve moved all the salt onto my fish cutlets.
Tom Lynch, Daniel Rioli and Shai Bolton are all still potent threats that can take over a game. Plus Damien “Terrible Candle” Hardwick always seems to find an ace up his sleeve.
They’ll be a competitor this year, but I can’t quite foresee a premiership for the team who’s colours I can never remember.
2. Collingwood
The Magpies’ charmed run in close games last season got them near a surprise appearance in the Grand Final; this season they’ll go one better.
How, you may ask? That’s simple: by making every game they play be a one-score game. They’re going to win 17 games by a combined 36 points, becoming the bane of every gambler who bets on the line.
The Magpies have a new captain for the first time in nearly a decade. The Scott Pendlebury era was a lot like the Byzantine Empire: some high points, several low points, and we’re all really just eager to see what takes its place.
It turns out that the House of Moore has taken over the Empire of Victoria Park again. Much like how the Hapsburgs turned the Holy Roman Empire into their personal fiefdom, so have the Moores turned the Magpies into theirs.
But in all seriousness, I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see Collingwood make the Grand Final this year. They were very close to making it last year, and with just a bit more luck, something they were sorely lacking in last year, they can make it to the last match of the year.
This will be a big game because their opponents in this game will be…
1. Carlton
There are many classic songs about being 17: Frank Sinatra’s “It Was a Very Good Year”; Stevie Nicks’ “Edge of Seventeen”; and ABBA’s “Dancing Queen”.
Just imagine what songs will be composed to celebrate the 17th premiership. The talented Carlton fans such as {name missing} and {example not found} will surely rise to the occasion.
They have multiple Coleman medalists in Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, just like last year’s premiers Geelong and 2013 premiers Hawthorn. However, it will be an improvement in defence that will lead to greater success.
I foresee a lower output in attack in exchange for a stingier defence and a tougher midfield. I doubt that Voss will allow so many quick scores, like what the Blues conceded to lose their finals spot last year.
In particular, I think Sam Docherty might be the rare defender to be the top Brownlow vote-getter for a team. He could pick up his second John Nicholls Medal this year if they do make it to September. In the middle, I think Matthew Kennedy and Adam Cerra will take the burdens off their more prominent stars and make it tougher for other teams to get on top.
Adam Cerra of the Blues runs with the ball. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
So that’s what’s coming this year. Oh yeah, spoiler alert by the way.
But as we all look forward to hearing the worst theme song in the league at the end of the season, I ask all of you what you think of this coming year. Are you excited, nervous, pessimistic or just keen to see some sport?
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