Not too far from my house in Sydney, there is major bus exchange. Head north-west and you’ll end up in Castle Hill or Cherrybrook. Alternatively, catch the 610 in a south-west direction and in around 15 minutes you will find yourself at CommBank Stadium.
Last Sunday evening, while taking a stroll around the neighbourhood, Parramatta fans spilled off the local bus services at the exchange, cock-a-hoop with their 30-4 win over the busted Dogs.
There was plenty of noise, heaps of smiling faces and a few intruders in blue and white kit were copping a friendly verbal pasting from the locals.
One middle-aged woman looked well lubricated as she sprinted against the lights, crossing the busy main road whilst shouting, “Parraaaaaaa”. A young fella brandished a large flag that drew plenty of toots from passing Eels fans in cars and the whole scene reminded of grand final week in 2022, when the dream of ending one of the NRL’s longest premiership droughts had the locals in a lather.
As others dressed in Eels jerseys wandered through, a guy said, “The Eels are back!”
Eels fans are sensing their team is on the rise, but could it be a false dawn? (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Which made me think: “Don’t go off too soon buddy”.
There was one meritorious win over the Panthers in Round 4, but little else of note early on. However, Parramatta have now claimed the last four points on offer to them.
A 28-22 win at Accor Stadium on Easter Monday against the Tigers was far closer than they had hoped and more difficult than most had expected, whilst the Bulldogs were put to the sword with a little more ease due to a horrific injury count that actually worsened during the match.
Watching the fans enjoy the better results and the team having done all it could over the last fortnight to re-ignite a season that began in the slowest manner possible, had me wondering just how real the Eels actually are.
Could the recent wins, due to the fragility of the opponents, be nothing more than a false dawn? Does the data support a true reversal in fortunes or have the Eels simply played a couple of soft opponents?
We will have an answer of sorts in a few hours’ time. The Broncos will meet Parramatta in Darwin for a match that could well define the Eels and their season when looked at in retrospect.
If they win over the red hot competition leaders, the rebound in form will be confirmed. If they get towelled up by a team dominating a host of statistical categories and it will be fact that Parramatta have only snatched wins when expected against lesser opposition and are a little off the pace of the serious contenders.
Statistically, the numbers suggest the Eels have some fundamental weaknesses in their game, ones likely to be exposed by Kevin Walters’ men.
Parramatta sit 11th in completions, at a not disastrous 76 per cent, yet it will be the 79 errors affecting those completions that will have coach Brad Arthur concerned. That error count sees the Eels ranked a poor 13th in the NRL and their 119 ineffective tackles places the blue and gold second worst, with only the Storm poorer in that metric.
There have been far too many missed tackles, 217 in fact, with most of the teams looking likely to make the top eight this season well under the 200 mark in that statistical category.
Aside from the eight line breaks made by Maika Sivo, no other Eel has more than three and the team ranks 11th collectively for total line breaks. Clint Gutherson is the only Eel inside the top 50 for tackle breaks, at 50th.
Maika Sivo continues to be a powerhouse for the Eels. (Photo by Matt King/Getty Images)
Concerningly, there have been plenty of run metres (12,334), offloads (85) and total runs (1,350), without too much to show for it, with the Eels ranked in the top three in the competition in all three areas.
Just three wins and a worrying 150 points conceded has Arthur’s team well off the pace of the competition benchmarks. Reed Mahoney’s dummy-half running has been a key loss, with Gutherson again the only Eel inside the NRL top 50 with 17 efforts, well below the numbers being racked up by the game’s clever decision makers in that area.
In a nutshell, the Eels appear to get a decent amount of ball, sitting mid-table and bang on 50 per cent possession, can manage to score on their day, yet also concede far too easily.
Parramatta’s statistical profile is not of a top eight team right now, let along top four. Two recent wins may have given some the impression that they are about to step into contention once again, yet the Broncos could well obliterate that view in Darwin.
Or it appears the Eels have another false dawn on their hands.
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