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We’re now less than two months away from the All Blacks taking on France in perhaps the most anticipated World Cup opener of all time.
It’s in a bit of contrast to the first All Black Test of the year, which is away in far-flung Mendoza and therefore struggling to gain the same sort of hype as a usual home Test start.
Still, on Sunday morning the 2023 version of Ian Foster’s side will run out at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas.
It’s a good time to do a pulse-check on the way New Zealand is feeling about the All Blacks’ prospects, plus cast our minds over a few other issues that the team…
Nervous. While the Crusaders and Chiefs played out the Super Rugby Pacific final, therefore showing that the player stocks are still good enough, that doesn’t actually mean a great deal in the grand scheme of things.
The issue of the jitters goes back to the All Blacks’ last Test, specifically the last 10 minutes.
If they’d won at Twickenham with a 25-6 scoreline, it would have been seen as a very effective way of finishing off what had been an extremely challenging year.
The All Blacks’ late capitulation against England at Twickenham last November left fears lingering in the background. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Much has been made of the four losses the All Blacks suffered in 2022. But it’s also worth remembering that since the last one, against Argentina in Christchurch, they’d rallied to not only play much better but also win The Rugby Championship.
The doom forecast over the end of year tour was abated – some were predicting historic losses to Japan and Scotland, but both matches ended with contrasting victories.
The Edinburgh result in particular was impressive, the Scots came in supremely confident and with good reason, but the All Black bench came on to do an extremely good job of closing the game out.
So really, if the All Blacks had held on against England and ground out the win in the same sort of fashion, things would be very different.
It’s highly likely the debate over Ian Foster’s job wouldn’t have reignited to a point where NZ Rugby felt it necessary to hire Scott Robertson a year in advance.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster and captain Sam Cane enjoyed a strong Super Rugby campaign but fears still exist over the national team. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
But the All Blacks blew it, letting the English score three tries in the final stages and drawing the game 25-all. If Marcus Smith hadn’t missed a relatively gettable conversion, the fallout would have been a lot worse.
(Ironically, at the time the result seemed to have saved Eddie Jones’ skin as England coach. Turns out it was only a one-week stay of execution).
So that bumbling of a big moment is probably the biggest reason why tension is still high around the All Blacks’ chances in France.
In saying that, the All Blacks’ chances in the Rugby Championship are still strong.
That’s due to a pretty favourable draw, that sees them start this weekend in Mendoza against a Pumas team that’s just assembled.
From there they go back to Auckland to play the Springboks, before a two Test Bledisloe Cup series.
As per usual, the ability of the other sides to cannabalise each other will play into the All Blacks’ hands if they drop one of those Tests.
If somehow the Rugby Championship is lost, it’ll probably involve the Bledisloe going as well. Tellingly, Eden Park is out of action due to the Women’s Football World Cup, so that’s at least one bright spot for Wallaby fans.
Where is Will Jordan?
It looks as though Foster’s choice to put Richie Mo’unga and Beauden Barrett in the starting XV won’t be as difficult as first thought, as the prolific Jordan has missed the trip to Mendoza with ongoing migraine symptoms.
It’s the same condition that caused him to miss much of Super Rugby Pacific, and he returned to play a big role in the Crusaders’ charge for the title.
How much is this going to be a hinderance in Jordan’s career going forward? While his astonishing try scoring strike rate is often mentioned, it’s worth remembering that Jordan’s Test debut lasted all of five minutes before he was knocked unconscious.
(Photo by Greg Bowker/Getty Images)
How healthy is Samuel Whitelock?
The veteran seemingly defied All Black orders and played the full length of the Super Rugby Pacific final, so if he does go on to put in the sort of shifts required from him in his last season the question has to be asked about why game management for the All Blacks is even a thing.
Whitelock is 34, but it also highlights another problem for Foster, in that his back up locking stocks are pretty inexperienced.
Who starts in the loose forwards? Or, more accurately, who starts alongside Sam Cane and Ardie Savea.
This may well be the most horses for courses approach by Foster in these opening Tests, with Shannon Frizell probably looking at a start against the Springboks, so Dalton Papalii or Luke Jacobson could feature in Mendoza.
Who is next on the depth chart behind Aaron Smith?
Cam Roigard has a pretty good case for being the closing option, as his big physical presence and kicking game mirrors what Foster wanted out of TJ Perenara last season.
So that may well leave Finlay Christie as the third halfback, AKA the guy who holds tackle bags and fills up water bottles.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.