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We are approaching the pointy end of the NRL season and the top eight is starting to shape up. But given how close the teams are on points, and at least the mathematical chance for every team from the Bulldogs up to make the eight, how settled is the top eight leading into Round 20 and can any team outside of the eight make it in?
Some simple statistics are needed to find out.
To start with, look at the difficulty of the draw for each team. To score the opponents, the Panthers, Broncos, Sharks and Storm are rated four points. The Raiders, Warriors, Eels, Rabbitohs and Cowboys are scored as three points. Even though the Titans have the same number of competition points (22) as some of the teams given three points, the extra bye means they are higher than they should be so they have been scored as two points along with the Sea Eagles, Roosters, Knights and Dolphins. Finally, the Bulldogs, St George Illawarra and Wests Tigers have a one point difficulty rating as opponents with little to play except pride. Byes are zero points.
So which team has the hardest draw in the remaining 7 rounds? The Sharks and the Titans have the hardest draw at 24 points in total. Next rung on the difficulty ladder at 21 points are the Panthers, Storm, Eels, Cowboys and Roosters. Both the Broncos and Raiders have an “average” difficulty draw at 19 and 18 points respectively. Interestingly, the Warriors and the Rabbitohs have the easiest draw at 14 points. In the last eight rounds, the Rabbitohs have two byes while the Warriors have a bye and a relatively easy late draw with the Dolphins, Tigers and the Dragons as opponents.
Next reference point is their position on the ladder and how many points each team is above the cut-off for the top eight as at the end of round 19, which is 22 points. No surprises here the Panthers and the Broncos have a six point lead, the Sharks, Storm and Raiders have a four point lead and the Warriors a two point lead. On the cut-off are the Eels, Rabbitohs, Cowboys and Titans. Running within reach of the eight, the Sea Eagles are only one point behind and the Roosters a further two points behind.
Combining both the difficulty of the draw and their position in the ladder as at the end of Round 19, which teams will make the eight?
Let’s start with my top four which are the Panthers, Broncos, Warriors and Raiders. Both the Panthers and the Broncos are there mainly because of their position on the table. While the Panthers have one of the more difficult draws (21 points), they have the class and form to stay in the top four if not the top two. With a draw difficulty score of 14 points and strong form, the Warriors will push their way into the top four. The easier draw for the Raiders (18 points) compared to the Sharks (24 points) and the Storm (21 points) also means they are a strong chance to make it to the top four.
My next four teams to complete the eight are the Storm, Sharks, Rabbitohs and Cowboys. Statistically, the Sea Eagles actually make the eight as they have an easier than average draw, but they have some higher score games against the Sharks, Panthers and Warriors mixed in with lower score games against the Dragons, Bulldogs and Tigers. They could easily be replaced by the Cowboys or the Eels, and North Queensland have better late-season form.
Just outside the eight therefore are the Sea Eagles and the Eels. The Eels also have a tough run in the last seven rounds with games against the Panthers, Broncos, Storm and Cowboys.
The Cowboys vs Eels game next week in Round 21 shapes up as a crucial game for the make-up of the eight. One piece of good news for Eels fans, if they get through these games in good shape and make the eight, a bye in Round 27 gives them a nice break before the finals.
J’maine Hopgood looks to pass. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
Roosters fans, they’ve left their turnaround too little and too late and it’s hard to see them making it with a more difficult draw than average.
So there you have it. My top eight are the Panthers, Broncos, Warriors, Raiders, Storm, Sharks, Rabbitohs and Cowboys, with the Eels or the Sea Eagles remaining a sneaky outside chance of making the eight. This looks a lot more stable than the current NRL table suggests and barring any late season form turnarounds (or the Broncos fading again), the top eight is pretty much set.
More interestingly for Warriors and Raiders fans, both teams are a real shot of making the top four and being positioned to win the premiership. Now that is something to get excited about.
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