After three big wins in a row, we’re faced with a simple question – are the Blues legitimately a finals contender, or are they just preying on the competition’s weak?
Michael Voss has been under incredible pressure following Carlton’s spiral down into the bottom four, given the expectation placed on a clearly talented playing group.
The fact we’re now entering Round 18 and his team is just a game outside the top eight is a turnaround that seemed improbable and is at least worth a small nod to the senior coach, regardless of how much credit he may or may not actually deserve.
Now, the last three weeks have seen victories by an average margin of nearly 10 goals. It’s amazing the impact that can have.
It feels like there’s less scrutiny on the Blues and even more specifically, there’s been less pressure on Harry McKay.
It’s coincided with a spectacular fortnight for the Coleman Medallist – he had 19 disposals, eight marks, six inside 50s, five tackles, four goal assists and kicked 2.3 against Hawthorn, which was followed up by 20 disposals, eight marks, six hitouts and 3.2 against Fremantle.
All of a sudden, we don’t care about his technique kicking for goal, nor his positioning on the field. It’s amazing what a couple of wins can do.
Harry McKay. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Back to the point though, can we take these last three matches and be convinced the Blues are indeed on track to make finals?
The last three rounds have seen them play Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Fremantle and we know the disappointment and narratives around each of those clubs.
To dominate against three of the bottom six clubs in the competition is hardly anything to write home about, but it’s not really preying on the weak teams of the league if the victorious group themselves were titled similarly prior to their streak.
There has been definite, measurable improvement by the Blues in this period of time and it cannot be understated the fact their offence has fired up against two group defences that have been at least above average.
From Rounds 8 to 13 the Blues averaged 56 points per game on 19.5 shots per game. Part of the McKay media attack was the fact the team as a whole was just so, so poor in front of goal. Carlton was kicking itself out of games, whether in winnable positions or just seeking to stay in touch.
Over the last three weeks they’re having over 28 shots at goal per game, averaging 110 points. It’s a small sample size, but a far more appealing set of numbers.
The defence has been good all season and has only been better served by the increased pressure up the field – in the aforementioned period full of losses, they averaged 53 tackles per game which has increased to 79 recently.
One of the lowest ranking forward pressure teams in the league, the Blues have even averaged 14 tackles inside 50 in the last three weeks, an increase of 50% on their season. Matt Owies has been superb and they’ve even got three per game from Curnow and McKay.
Considering Carlton has faced some of the best tap rucks in the league without their own recognised version, it shows that it’s the buy-in and commitment around the ball that really sets the tone for the Blues.
When out of form, Patrick Cripps looks like he’s carrying the weight of the team on his shoulders while injured. Since they started winning, he’s running to better spots, applying pressure and his clearance work has been great.
(Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
The re-introduction of Sam Walsh into the midfield group is such a painfully obvious positive influence on the group that it’s hard to really give the coach any credit, given he shouldn’t have been out of it in the first place. The now-injured Matt Kennedy is similar, playing an inside midfielder off half-back is just plain weird.
No one quite wants to recognise that Adam Cerra has been one of the best, most consistent midfielders in the entire league this season, because it’s not the cool thing to do. He’s averaging 27 disposals, five inside 50s, five clearances, five tackles and is rated above average in every offensive, defensive and contested category.
Cerra’s influence on this team is only better served by the increased pressure around the ground by his teammates, who are finally starting to join the 23-year-old’s party this year.
And that’s really what it’s about for the Blues, more than just the results on paper against three disappointing opponents.
The reason for the continued disappointment around Carlton is the fact it’s such an obviously talented group that has almost every spot on the ground covered appropriately.
The coaching is and has always felt iffy, the board has always been questionable and for over a decade, there’s always been a dark cloud hanging over the Blues.
So, finals in 2023? Have things changed or is this just another example of potentially getting sucked in by the Blues yet again?
We’re going to find out a whole heap in Round 18’s clash against Port Adelaide. It’s entirely possible they’re the ones to break the Power’s incredible 13 game winning streak.
Carlton coach Michael Voss. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
If the offensive play is sustainable, meaningful ball movement and hitting targets inside 50, with true commitment to attacking the body when tackling in the forward half, then that’s the way Port Adelaide can be beaten this year.
All Carlton really needs to do is settle somewhere in the middle of the numbers during their losing streak, and those in the winning streak. Tackle hard, ensure one of McKay or Curnow are inside forward and stay committed to the cause.
It makes the defence better, it makes the midfield better and it makes the attack better. This is the epitome of a confidence team, but one that can beat any team in the competition playing the way it has in the last three games.
It’s easy enough to say that if they’re the ones that break the Port Adelaide Undertaker’s streak, they’ll play finals.
We should really be watching how they play. If the form is maintained, the finals flame is reignited. Certainly, the opinion after all this is a positive one.
This is Carlton and Michael Voss we’re talking about.
It’s on them to convince us that for probably the 10th time since the turn of the century, this isn’t the typical Blues fool’s gold.
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