We’re just hours away from one of the most anticipated matches in years. We are now at the height of prediction season, but really, given all the possibilities that can affect the outcome, anything could happen.
I feel, however, pretty confident in predicting that the result will to a large extent depend on what the All Blacks bench delivers when they come on the field. The All Blacks have not shown much success with high impact benches over the past few years – the exception being in Dunedin when the bench was stacked with top All Blacks.
The bench has been a major All Black weakness and in a few days its composition could be a game-changer when you layer on top of it the injuries to Brodie Retallick, Shannon Frizell, and Tyrel Lomax, and now possibly Jordie Barrett.
Will All Blacks coach Ian Foster make the right calls with his bench? (Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
Each of these players are integral to the team. In all likelihood, they will be replaced in the starting XV by players that would have been on the bench. Starting with the forwards, and assuming a 6-2 forwards/backs split, I don’t see this as a big problem with the front row replacements.
But for the locks and loosies, we’re probably looking at Dalton Papali’i, Luke Jacobson and Tupou Vaa’i. There is not much experience among the three of them and they would not necessarily be considered as high impact players.
With the 6-2 split, that leaves just two backs on the bench. One of these needs to be a halfback (and I’d pick Cam Roigard). I’m guessing Jordie Barrett would be replaced by David Havili in the starting XV. So that would leave Anton Lienert Brown (ALB) as the most logical player to come off the bench at second-five if needed. ALB can play at Centre as well if required.
Do these two players scream out ‘high impact’? I could make a case Cam Roigard does, and should be on the bench for the way he plays the game, regardless of experience (or maybe even start the game, with Aaron Smith coming on later with his speed to the breakdowns and his ability to whip passes away to get the ball quickly out wide). I don’t see ALB as high impact, but rather, as a journeyman that does his fundamental work really well.
If the coaches opt for a 6-2 split, and there is a need for high impact players coming into the game, the All Blacks fall well short, which brings us to one of the big questions. Can you select the optimal impact bench with the current stock at hand? Should Lester Fainga’anuku and Damian McKenzie be named on the bench along with Cam Roigard in a 5-3 split instead?
I’m in favour of a 5-3 split, and with the above players included. My gut feeling is that for the All Blacks to win this opening match they will need to come out like 15 beasts with a singular mission to run the French off their feet and at a minimum be their equals in the intense battle of the forwards. And later on, there must be 8 more high-impact beasts coming on to play out of their skins to repel the French.
Cam Roigard scores against South Africa. (Photo by Dan Mullan/Getty Images)
The All Blacks need to put a lot of points on the board in the first third of the match, keep the pressure up, and keep the French guessing. If the French are still behind in the second half they will throw the ball around in the backs with the Stadium fully behind them, cheering loudly – deafening, most likely. The All Blacks will need three high impact backs with fresh legs and a physical presence to counter the French skills and flair and x-factor when opportunities arise. With the French knowing that, they will also be less inclined to take risks.
The All Blacks will know they’ll face a major assault from the French in the second forty minutes; they will not win the match if they choose to play defensively against them. High impact backs coming off the bench may be the secret sauce for success.
In fact, it could be argued that it’s high risk of a loss to the French if these high impact players do not feature the game.
There is a risk, of course, if David Havili needs to be replaced. Most likely that would be Lester Fainga’anuku. But it’s a risk worth taking. So, if I was asked by the coaches what to do, I’d recommend that Cam Riogard, Lester Fainga’anuku and Damian McKenzie be named on the bench, and that the coaches ask each of the five forwards to play the game of their lives.
If the All Blacks don’t take the game to the French from the first whistle, it will be France celebrating at the end of the night. But if these three high impact backs deliver, that will send alarm bells ringing across the other team camps over the weeks ahead.
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