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Sometimes the footy gods tease us with what seems like an easy tipping week, only to throw in a stack of upsets and leave us floundering in the dirt wondering exactly what happened.
Only time will tell whether Round 10 is one of those mirage weekends, but on paper at least, it looks ominously straightforward. Of nine games, seven have a comfortable favourite – with the AFL as even as it has ever been, it’s impossible not to like those odds.
But it’s bad news for anyone languishing at the foot of their tipping competition, like me; this is a heck of a risky week to go for a roughie. Might this be the chance for us cellar dwellers to bide our time, pick the favourites, and wait for another week to make our last stand?
Last week: 4
Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne
Let’s speed through the easy games first: Brisbane would wallop Richmond at home even if they didn’t have half the team in the infirmary, Essendon will run up a number on North Melbourne unless they’ve drunk too much of their own bathwater in the last month, and while Hawthorn’s recent form has been terrific, Port Adelaide in Adelaide is a significantly tougher task than the Western Bulldogs or Fremantle.
As for the rest, there are two tiers: the genuine coin-flips, of which there are two, and the ones I’m relatively confident in but not without some trepidation.
Let’s start with the latter tier. It’s impossible to tip against Sydney at home against anyone the way they’re flying at the moment, but I’ve got a sneaky feeling that if anything can upset their run of form, it’s Carlton’s midfield. Still, I’m staying with the hosts, just as I am for Collingwood, who I expect will account for Adelaide at the MCG – but then again, the Crows could and probably should have beaten them at least once in their two thrillers last year, so they clearly match up well on the Pies.
Hope is the most dangerous thing of all, and while it’s not strong enough to tip the Bulldogs to beat GWS on their turf, they’re nevertheless the sneakiest of chances against a spluttering Giants outfit missing Lachie Ash and especially Josh Kelly. But watch the Dogs’ awful defence ship six goals to the out-of-form Toby Greene and lose painfully again.
And finishing off this tier, while Melbourne are better than West Coast and should beat them anywhere, a fired-up Optus Stadium and the Harley Reid factor might just make this the Dees’ most challenging trip to Perth since pre-COVID – a venue where, as it happens, they’re on a six-game winning streak dating back to the 2021 preliminary final.
As for the coin-flips, St Kilda are a huge chance at home after a week of scrutiny against Fremantle, but the Dockers have improved in recent weeks (their loss to Sydney can be totally excused, of course) and deserve to be favourites; while Thursday night is the proper tough one of this weekend.
Logic says to go Geelong to beat Gold Coast because I trust them more, but the Suns’ midfield is significantly better than the Cats’, they’ve built a bit of a fortress in recent years at TIO Stadium, and are far more used to the humid, slippery conditions in the Top End than Geelong. Suns for me.
Isaac Heeney of the Swans. (Photo by Cameron Spencer/Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS, St Kilda, Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne
Thursday nights at TIO Stadium – it sounds like there should be a half-price Parma special or something involved rather than a footy game, but it’s arguably the most fascinating match of the round.
The Suns have done exactly what a team should do at their secondary home and made it a fortress of sorts. Geelong, on the other hand, have entered somewhat of a downward spiral and are now going to be without probably the third-best player in the competition in Jeremy Cameron.
Conditions aren’t conducive to key forward dominance but still, the Cats need more than one goal from five games out of Tom Hawkins. If the Suns can get over the line here, they’re right in the hunt for September.
It’s a pity that the Blues continue to be crippled by injuries, although it’s a clear testament to their depth that they remain a contender. It was a true battle against the Demons but I personally came away from the game a little unsure about both teams. Coming up against the flag favourite will be an epic challenge, and one well worth our attention. Expect the Swans to continue to gracefully carve through their opposition.
The rest of the fixtures garner pockets of interest, but the expectation of quality goes way downhill from the opening two matches. The Magpies are the second-best team in the league and should handle the Crows, while the Giants simply must respond against the Bulldogs.
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Is it possible to have another draw this round? The Saints and Dockers could definitely play off in a low-scoring tie, but for the purposes of tipping, I’ll go with the disappointing home team. Meanwhile, I’m just hopeful the Tigers can get within 20 goals of the Lions.
Wouldn’t it be very Essendon of yesteryear to stumble against North? That’s mean – they’re third for a reason. You wouldn’t expect Port to have any issues at home against the Hawks, either.
Finally, I’m not sure how many people will be watching the Eagles/Melbourne game to finish the round but if OKC win game 5 against Dallas in the NBA, I’ll keep Kayo on deep into the IPL match running simultaneously. The Demons have to deal with West Coast handily.
Toby Greene. (Photo by Graham Denholm/Getty Images)
Last week: 5
Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne
Half a dozen games should be pretty straightforward this week, with the interesting matches somewhat front-loaded.
Geelong head up to Darwin to tackle Gold Coast fresh off an 11-goal win against North at the same ground. The older Cats team has a day extra break, but find themselves in a mini-slump thanks to a midfield that has a tendency to get obliterated – it will be up to Witts, Rowell, Anderson and Miller to control this game and give their forward line enough looks to get the win.
Sydney is hot and rightly start favourites at home against Carlton. Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay are different gravy to Jye Amiss and Josh Treacy, with the Freo pair held to just three marks between them against a Swans backline missing Tom McCartin. Still, the injuries are mounting up at the Blues.
Fremantle already has two wins in Melbourne this year, and faces an out-of-form St Kilda at Marvel. In their last 21 games, the Saints only have two wins against teams that aren’t in the bottom four right now – I’ll be tipping against them until further notice.
Last week: 5
Geelong, Sydney, Collingwood, GWS, Fremantle, Brisbane, Essendon, Port Adelaide, Melbourne
If you were to watch just the one game this weekend, make it Friday night’s encounter between the Swans and the Blues.
I didn’t buy a huge amount into Sydney’s victory in Perth last week – however excellent they were, Freo’s extenuating circumstances dampened proceedings. In the bigger picture though, they’re in sensational form, as are the Blues. This would be Carlton’s biggest 2024 scalp yet, which – block your ears, Blues fans – makes me even more sure they’ll bottle it. Old habits die hard, eh?
That’s not to say Thursday’s game isn’t worth a watch, too. The Cats haven’t tasted victory since Round 7 (oh my, won’t someone think of those long-suffering Geelong fans) and face the Suns, who love Darwin and have a weirdly good record against the Cats of late. I’m not brave enough to tip the hosts, though – Geelong should bounce back.
The Crows, too, will be extra motivated to bounce back after last week’s frustrating draw, but up against a wounded yet scarily good Magpies at the MCG, it ain’t happening. The Lions will have a significantly easier time of it; the Tigers are seemingly mirroring a certain team from Perth (are injuries worth the next Harley Reid?) and have little chance at the Gabba.
The league’s most underrated rivalry between the Giants and Dogs is our Saturday arvo mandatory viewing, and this all depends on which Bulldogs outfit shows up. But there’s a simple equation here – the Giants aren’t Richmond, and the Dogs aren’t very good.
The Saints and Freo match-up is a confusing one, and going by my track record of attending Freo games, the Saints should already be singing the song. In all seriousness, the Saints are so uninspiring even my own flawed club should prevail.
Sunday is all a bit ‘meh’, with perhaps the only potential chance of an upset being the twilight encounter at Optus Stadium. Even then, the Eagles came crashing down to Earth with last week’s loss, and the Demons should prevail.
The Dons have every chance, and then some, to comfortably beat North, while Port – back at home – should ruin the Hawks’ fine fortnight.
Ross Lyon. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)
| Round 10 | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GCS vs GEE | GCS | GCS | GCS | GEE | ? |
| SYD vs CAR | SYD | SYD | SYD | SYD | ? |
| COL vs ADE | COL | COL | COL | COL | ? |
| GWS vs WB | GWS | GWS | GWS | GWS | ? |
| STK vs FRE | FRE | STK | FRE | FRE | ? |
| BL vs RCH | BL | BL | BL | BL | ? |
| ESS vs NM | ESS | ESS | ESS | ESS | ? |
| PA vs HAW | PA | PA | PA | PA | ? |
| WCE vs MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | MEL | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 45 | 51 | 49 | 50 | 53 |
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