The NFL Conference Champions have been determined and we now know who is heading to San Francisco for the 50th edition of the big one.
For the NFC it will be the Carolina Panthers, losers of just one match this season and clearly the undisputed kings of their conference after an absolute demolition of the Arizona Cardinals.
The AFC Conference Championship match was a far more compelling match-up between the two best teams in the AFC.
A close, defensive tussle, the match went down to the wire with an intercepted two-point conversion attempt being the difference between the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots.
The keys to the Broncos’ victory were ball security and pressure on the quarterback. For the second week in a row, Peyton Manning did not throw an intercept after throwing a whopping 17 through ten games in the regular season.
On the defensive side of the ball, the front four constantly hounded Tom Brady, sacking him four times and hitting him an obscene 20 times. On 35 per cent of his passes, Brady was hit. It’s not possible to get comfortable in the pocket when you’re being hit that frequently.
Throughout the regular season the Broncos were among the most prolific pass rushers in the league, blitzing on 41.7 per cent of plays. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips backed his secondary to defend in one-on-one coverage while bringing the house to pressure opposing quarterbacks.
It worked. The Denver defence was the best in the league in terms of total yards allowed, DVOA and sacks.
But that game plan can struggle against the best quarterbacks in the league. A player of Tom Brady’s calibre feasts on one-on-one opportunities. If he sees Rob Gronkowski lined up one-on-one he will throw him the football. And nine times out of ten Gronkowski will catch the football.
There are very few players who can successfully defend Gronkowski one-on-one, heck most teams struggle to defend him using two players.
We saw this the first time these two teams clashed this season. In the first quarter, Gronkowski was covered in single coverage. He scored a touchdown on the Patriots’ opening drive of the match. After this, the Broncos adjusted, covered him more tightly and shut him down.
But in that match the Broncos could still use their heavy blitzes because Brady’s other receiving targets were ineffective at best. Both Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola missed that match and the Broncos were not afraid to leave Brandon Lafell and Keshawn Martin in single coverage.
This week Edelman and Amendola were back and the Broncos faced a major dilemma. They knew that the only way they were winning this game was if the defence shut down the Patriots offence. Peyton Manning was never going to win a shootout with Brady. But if they played their normal game plan, Brady would have picked them apart.
So Phillips adjusted, he sent the house very rarely throughout the match. There were only two or three instances in which the Broncos blitzed with their front seven.
Instead, they dropped their linebackers into coverage and used their dominant defensive line to demolish the much-maligned Patriots offensive line.
Occasionally the Broncos sent a fifth blitzer, but for much of the match the Broncos sent four and completely dominated at the line of scrimmage. There were even times when they sent three players and still managed to get to the quarterback.
Last week, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell wrote about how Brady has struggled in previous playoff matches when the opposing defence was able to pressure him without sending the house. This is exactly what happened against Denver. Brady never looked comfortable, he was rushing throws and missing open receivers as a result.
By adjusting their defence and changing their game plan based on their opposition’s strengths and weaknesses the Broncos defence was able to win their team the match. Despite a few nervous moments in the dying minutes.
However, while the defence won the team the match, it was up to the offence to ensure they put enough points on the board. They did, only just, but they got there nevertheless.
The match was probably Manning’s second-best of the season, behind that 340-yard performance against the Packers in Week 8. He is definitely not the Manning we saw when the Broncos last made the Super Bowl two seasons ago but he played much better than the Manning we saw earlier this season.
Unfortunately, he did miss a number of easy throws, with two touchdowns going begging after he failed to hit open receivers. But this is what we will have to expect from Manning in the Super Bowl, likely his last game in Broncos colours and potentially ever.
While he only completed 53 per cent of his passes, Manning was able to successfully take care of the football. He did give up a fumble on that weird backwards pass, which Ronnie Hillman should cop some of the blame for, but overall there were very few passes which even looked like being intercepted.
The Broncos’ running game struggled yet again, for what seemed like the thousandth time this season. CJ Anderson made some big runs late in the game and eventually totalled 72 yards on the ground. However it’s a bit concerning when your quarterback has the biggest run of the match, a 12-yard scramble, in the fourth quarter.
Ultimately the Broncos are the AFC Champions thanks to their defence. The defence has carried the team this far, we now have two weeks to wait and see if they can climb the final rung of the ladder. I don’t like their chances.
Hey, supercoach? Choose your own ultimate NFL team and compete with other players for cash prizes in daily competitions on any match. If you’re after the best odds on the NFL, PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
The extraordinary episodes after his life as an American Football hero quite overshadowed the career of O.J. Simpson, who has died at the age…
The Kansas City Chiefs, steered brilliamtly at the end by star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, downed the San Francisco 49ers 25-22 in overtime to secure…
San Francisco 49ers will make their eighth appearance in the Super Bowl after a stellar season from a team stacked with real talent across the whole line-up.
The Chiefs are no longer strangers to playing matches in February. What was once a multi-generational 50-year drought has become an almost yearly tradition.
Daniel Faalele and Mitch Wishnowsky have kept their Super Bowl dreams alive, with Baltimore and San Francisco winning the divisional round playoff.
Six-time NFL champion Bill Belichick has agreed to part ways as the coach of the New England Patriots, bringing an end to his 24-year…
