I see your point. When you look at it that way, it may seem that the impact could be minimal.

However, I don’t think 4 and 5 days recovery from SOO will leave their players in the best condition. Even if they do back up, what sort of physical state will they be in.?
Especially given most of their rep players are forwards, I can’t see De Belin for example playing 60-80mins in the Origin arena on a Wednesday, then backing up with 80mins on the weekend for St George.

I agree that it’s far too early to call a winner for 2018, and I don’t believe I’ve done so.

As I suggested in the article, the upcoming rep and bye period could have an impact on where the Dragons finish on the ladder. There is a big advantage in scoring one of those top 4 spots in particular. And my concern for the Red V is that if they struggle while missing players, it could mean they miss the top 4.

Penrith’s depth and junior system isn’t comparable to any other side in the league. We seem to have a host of kids that step up when called upon, and then get snapped up by other clubs.

I’m expecting players like Tyrone May and Jerome Luai to find other clubs willing to give them a crack at first grade. Because if Cleary resigns, their long term prospects at the foot of the mountain don’t look promising.

Sorry for the oversight with the Tigers. Perhaps I was just projecting forward to when they play, I don’t see the Tigers in the 8 by then.

My concern with their roster is depth in the halves. Mann is a makeshift half at best, and I don’t see any other tried and tested halves on their roster.

As a Panthers supporter… that was great to see.!

Oates is made for Origin. Plays as an extra forward, but knows his way to the line. You can’t go wrong with him. But again, I don’t know how I feel dropping Holmes regardless of club form.

Boyd’s definitely not the player he used to be, but at the same, he’ll do the job if he’s picked.

Kevvie certainly has a decision to make. And as a Blues supporter, I hope he makes the wrong one.! ?

Paul Pierce at halfback you say.?! Could be a master stroke.!

My Parra supporting partner was born in ’87… Reading this in her shoes, I feel your pain.

I’m another who had Parramatta in my top 4 before the season kicked off. Obviously the quality of side on paper has missed the mark on field.
I think a successful season for Parra is close, and I echo your calls to ‘trust the process’. Brad Arthur seems to be the type of coach that players want to play for. He also knows footy! He’s put together a team that could get the job done, he just needs to get them playing winning footy. I feel as though Gutherson, Norman and Moses are capable, but they need the forward pack to give them a platform the play from. Granted, injuries to key members of their packs has left them a little light on this season.

Hang in there Parra supporters, things will improve….. the have to!

You’re on the money with the style of game we should expect. As with any Origin game, defence is going to be the key! But if NSW can pick a back 5 that will return kicks well and bend the line with strong carries early in a set, it’ll set the tone. Teddy, JAC, Croker, Aitken and Turbo fit the bill for me. I’m one that feels as though Latrell Mitchell is not quite ready to make the jump. Ask any Roosters supporter and they’ll tell you he has a knack of going missing in the big games.

I do think you’ve done JAC a little injustice. No question that his attack is the focal point of his game, but his carries out of the red zone for Melbourne have been very strong! I’m not sure you can judge his SOO prospects off the back of being outleaped by Fedlt. He’s a proven high-flyer and has done the same to countless high quality, opposing wingers. On a side note, if Feldt was a New South Welshman, he’d be on our right flank without question.

My apologies if it wasn’t clear in the article, but my ‘changing of the guard’ comment was in relation to the 17 players likely to be picked by QLD. Not the outside backs in particular.

However, it is interesting to see you’ve picked Oates over Holmes or Boyd. Personally, I feel Oates is the best option. But it’s a big call to drop a bloke who scored 3 in his last outing as a Maroon.

I agree 100% with picking players in their club positions. Which is why I would opt for a specialist left centre in Croker, right centre Aitken and left winger JAC. The only exception for me is the right wing. I have no qualms picking Turbo on the right flank due to a lack of options, coupled with the fact I can’t justify dropping Teddy and Tom has to be in the 17.

I definitely think Tommy Turbo on the right wing is the best option at the present time. However, i feel as though JAC’s abilityto pull off the spectacular renders other facets of his game as underrated. He’s a strong ball carriers and doesn’t seem to mind rolling his sleeves up and getting involved early on in the set.

I can’t disagree with your suggestion on Aitken and Dugan in the centres. Aitken looks every bit an Origin centre to me! Strong ball runner and his decision making in defence is second to none in the competition. If he can develop his hands a little more, i see him replicating the career of another defensive minded Dragons right centre….. Matt Cooper.

Dugan possesses every attribute needed for Origin, bar one for me. Commitment and ticker! If ran hard and tackled hard for 80mins, he would be the first name on the team sheet. I just haven’t seen enough of it from him.

Well said Edward!

I believe the dirty work done by the back 5 has separated the 2 teams for years, and will most certainly come into play for the 2018 Series.
This year, I feel as though NSW have the opportunity to pick a side that will match the QLD’ers in this area, and along with a stronger forward pack, could provide the go forward and momentum we need to get over the line.

It’s a shame Mansour isn’t available (Penirth supporter here), because he’s the best winger in the competition in this regard.

I’m firmly of the belief that new faces in An Origin side bring an energy and enthusiasm that you don’t see in players who have been there before. The type of players I’ve mentioned would all bring a hunger to make that spot in the Blues team there own. Enthusiasm in youth isn’t a new concept here.

I completely agree that the outside backs need a solid forward pack laying the platform and a spine to provide the opportunities in attack. However, I believe this years series might come down to how the wingers and centres stack up against one another. As I suggested in the article, these positions play a very important role, especially in Origin, in getting the set off to a good start and taking the tough carries to take the pressure off forwards.
I think of Corey Oats, Josh Mansour and David Nofoaluma as the best in the comptetition. Their effort plays in carting the ball up early in a set are invaluable to a team. Origin is no different.

Again, I don’t think the Chooks are in any kind of dire situation.! They’re definitely not starting the 2016 season as they would have liked, but I wouldn’t consider them spooners, or even spoon contenders at this stage.
But everyone with two eyes (unbiased opinion) has to admit, their fall from grace, finshing as Minor Premiers for the last 3 straights seasons, to being written off before the season starts, has been quite spectacular to watch. Being a Panthers supporter, I have a natural animosity toward the tri colours, and I’d happily see them slump to the spoon in 2016. Realistically, will it happen? Of course not.
I’m also an avid fan of the game in general and can’t wait to see some of their talent on display. Hastings, Napa, Evans, Ferguson and Taukeiaho to name just a handful.

I’m a massive believer in young talent earring their stripes in NSW/QLD Cup before being thrown in the deep end, as you say.
It’s the old arguement of playing against men rather than boys, and I feel as though it’s paramount for about 90% of first graders to successfully make the jump. The remaining 10% however seem to posses the ability to make the jump without missing a beat. A few I can think of off the top of my head are Anthony Milford at Canberra, Lolohoea at the Warriors or even Penrith’s own Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. All players who played very little or no feeder club footy between 20’s and first grade.
I’m starting to wonder to myself if Te Maire Martin could be a part of that special group? I may just be an over-excited Panthers fan, but I think he may be.!

As for the Tigers, I do feel a little sorry for them. I know they think they’re onto long term halves with Brooks and Moses, but I can’t see a premiership going back to Liechardt or Campbelltown or wherever they want call home, anytime soon.

I’m praying for the next two weeks to fly by.! But for now, I’ll be out at Pepper Stadium this Saturday afternoon to watch Penrith’s final preparation, and I can’t wait.!

Ferguson was in career best form in the last season he played for the Raiders. He could have had any number on his back, and would have continued to carry that side.
After his return to the game with Roosters last season, it looked to me as though he lost a little of that ‘X factor’ he once possessed. He was very solid in defence, but if you had have told me in ’13’ that Blake Ferguson’s strength in ’15’ would be his solid fence, I would have discredit your opinion from that point on.! Lol
I hope he can get back to that Radiers form, then, as I said, it wouldn’t matter where you play him.

Nice read. Enjoyable.!

However, I have to competely disagree with you in regards to the Panthers forecast.! The club is in a much better position, in terms of depth, than they were in ’14’ and ’15’. This is the first season in recent memory, that there is an internal battle for starting spots. And it’s a great thing to watch.!

Albeit, coming from and avid Panthers fan. But if I take a look at the situation with both eyes, this season is still a promising one. On paper, we should be pushing for a top 4 finish. But realistically, a finals birth is expected.!

Also, how in the world do you have Manly finishing minor premiers? An aging backline, in Matai, Stewart and Lyon, combined with an out of position half (should Walker get the nod at 6) and a pack with a few new faces.
Don’t get me wrong, have them in my top 8, but tipping them as minor premiers is borderline ludicrous.!

Completely agree with you that their lineup will still be a strong one. They’re a little light in the backline. And I honestly can’t see Ferguson lighting the NRL on fire from the back. But they do still have that sprinkling of individual brilliance that should get them past most teams and keep them in the 8 or thereabouts.

I’d say Martin is more from the Benji Marshall mould. Exciting nonetheless.!

I’d suggest that it’ll be all or nothing for Te Maire Martin this season. If Hook starts him from the get go, he has to stick solid.! We’ve seen before that young halves being brought in and out of first grade struggle for consistency. Think Luke Brooks in 2013/14. Touted as a big deal, but bounced between first grade and NSW Cup like a yo-yo.

It’s a good point you make regarding the chopping and changing of halves combos, it hardly results in a successful season. But I feel as though, once Griffin makes a decision, he’ll see it through. There are only positives to come from playing Martin. I’ll say it again. Soward at 7 and Martin at 6 is the best option for the 2016 Panthers.!

Personally. I don’t think that’s a bad thing. He’s in the twilight of his career and I don’t think he has much to offer.
Perhaps just a level head in the club, but on the field, I’d prefer to see Soward in the 7 and Martin at 6.