The Roar
The Roar

kv joef

Roar Guru

Joined September 2013

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... mimicking a chihuahua barking at the gates of hell but horse racing is good and keeps me happy.

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WELL DONE CAM!

What a day for you. Nearly a clean sweep of all the G1s and …

your analysis of the slipper was perfect and more to the point – it takes courage to put your cash down on a horse drawn that wide in the GS and then to walk away with the F4 over the line from 4 picks is really special.

Again well done … when you go into your favourite eatery they’ll be clearing the A-list tables now 🙂

Golden Slipper day at Rosehill: Group 1 previews and tips

Have been waiting for the roar to comment and well put tristan. Certainly Lloyd leads the nomination list for the dumb-arz of the year award. Moody got it last year and Llyod’s got a mortgage on it this year. what is it with victoria 🙂 ,must be something in the water.

firstly,Lloyd hasn’t broken any rules. A managing owner has the authority to instruct his ‘trainer’ on any matter and that means ANY … because he owns the horse. the trainer can refuse or if the horse’s welfare is in jeopardy or illegalities involved, the trainer can report any matter to the stewards.

Your LAST POINT IS VALID – three times times this year abundant confusion about the relationship between racing managers, owners and trainers have thrown careers into turmoil. Ultimately, the trainer ends-up holding the can. So you can see why many of the top stables make owners sign contracts of relationship … bit hard if you are a ‘private’ trainer.

Williams' admission raises questions for racing fans - and stewards

Yes tristan on the money. about 5 pts down off his best yesterday.

i wasn’t surprised by taj mahal — just read the race completely wrong. thought they would set the pace up with assign, settle almandin where he was and look after taj mahal behind him. figured TM would have trouble outsprinting big AL. as soon as TM settled a few lengths in front of him … i thought ooooh here’s trouble.

my own ratings had TM around WR110/112 and that’s why i thought he was a chance in the Emirates last week.

those ratings are off Bramelot (French Derby), the Ellipse defeat by Ulysses ans Barney Roy with confirmation through Benbatl.

So, i thought the $1mill+ Syd Cup and a few other autumn races were the go where they could make full use of their current discounted OHR 103 (WR106) but that has just been dropped kicked out of the yard. After that win i figure he will get an official bump up towards to my number.

My worse read was the Sandown guineas – although that really was a crazy-run race but the winner does look very classy and perfectly ridden by cool-hand-luke.

Zipping Classic: Almandin on class, Big Duke on form, or The Taj?

Oliver has a nice book of rides. should give the jockey challenge a nudge. i’ve never bet a jockey challenge … don’t think i’ll start now 🙂

Tony McEvoy is certainly sending a couple of his promising types for a scale-jump be interested to see where they land.

I’m sure Swacadelic ran second to Qwey, beaten a lip in last years San.Cup – he has been going alright – it was his only start at the track … race isn’t that hard … and probably revolves around the marathon-staying capabilities of G.Chief …

Zipping Classic: Almandin on class, Big Duke on form, or The Taj?

far too kind with your appraisal JB. remember the 100 year quote from a real genius … ‘Special knowledge is not a talent. A man must acquire it by hard work’.

an education type blog i’ve been toying with the idea as long as i’ve written on the roar. it was my main reason for writing here. i could see recreational punters being sucked away in sports betting. the industry was under attack by the gambling-haters and on the other side by the corporates trying to transfer them into their most lucrative profit-centre sports betting.

NSWracing was under attack by political undercurrent that was about self-interest and not the industry. they even used that argument against the RNSW board – it was non-sensical and destructuive.

i simply thought if i went to war with the negativity and showed players was a fun sport and an exhilarating sport other like minded people would join in. they did.

since i was retired but still interested in the sport, the easiest way to get attention was to pick winners. i got lucky a few times.

so i may continue the education theme on a blog and post summaries here instead of crashing threads.. i’ve been encouraged to to it by former associates for a number of years so maybe i will..

Zipping Classic: Almandin on class, Big Duke on form, or The Taj?

Good shout Max with the Hawkes baby. no public trial form? Owned by Spendthrift. american operations are inclined not to race slow ones from their ‘barn’, maybe they do it differently with their australian arm. But hawkes racing are very particular with their babies and they have chosen sandown for his first public gallop. so they want a good look at him.

let’s see how he goes … hope i don’t sleep thru the guineas …

Zipping Classic: Almandin on class, Big Duke on form, or The Taj?

our opinions differ in the main Tristan 🙂 …

As soon as the noms appeared for the classic, Almandin stood out. I was happy enough with Almandin’s Cup effort. He was weighted to his number and when Dettori brought him to the contest at the 250m with a sharp sprint he looked ok but couldn’t sustain and began to tire. Dettori did the right thing and parked him.

That thoughtfulness will probably help Almandin show-up in this. Big Duke was great in the Cup and seems the hardest but i think the Monsun has them covered.

Looking forward to the Guineas, the Carbine form is strong. Not much between Snitzapeg, Beau Geste and Hypnotist. Octobello was good as well. Black Sail keeps improving but has to step up again. His stablemate Villermont is solid in the market, suppose he must be going well in private but not for me.

Probably have Beau Geste on top. Has been promising plenty but firing blanks. maybe not tomorrow. but all three are easy to back at current odds. Hypnotist looks a typical Street Cry and looks over the odds – i like him as a horse. Been a bit useless but he’ll like sandown.

Sandown Cup offers up two chances and i prefer Fanatic to beat the fav Gallic Chieftain.

Plenty of value in some of the other races. might append something tomorrow if time allows.

Zipping Classic: Almandin on class, Big Duke on form, or The Taj?

i didn’t use humidor – greg carpenter did … and I TOTALLY AGREE. you may think there are two humidors, i don’t.

the ‘good’ humidor ran in the Cox plate – Winx ran a course record after covering a mountain of ground and racing totally different to her normal modus operandi. If she would have been mine i wouldn’t have been afraid to force the pace and wind-it-up from the 1000m. they would have been scattered at the end like the turnbull.

the cox was her second record of the spring campaign. The first breaking the 35 yea-old G.Main Stks record of All Our Mob – a pretty serious G1 racehorse.

anyway, back to the ‘good’ humidor – he beat Jameka (WR121) in the Aust. Cup so his mark WR122 is already established.

The race-pattern of the turnbull helped Ventura Storm (WR111) hold on against a tired humidor, coming from second last, but still trying in the Turnbull. he never quit or dog’d it. watch him.

the turnbull could be viewed as a match race between humidor and winx … the only two WR120+ horses in the race and the rest were in their own race.

Weir’s horse always had the sit on her on at the pace she was running. he tried to make a race but couldn’t and eventually busted at the 250m. it was a fair defeat and the 7 lens a confirmed margin in true match-up style. horse against horse.

if there is no winx … does humidor win the turnbull? maybe it was the ‘good’ humidor in the turnbull afterall..

Form has Winx as the best racehorse in the world – even if the rankings don't

they review all contentious RACE ratings at the end of the year … they may decide that Arrogate’s Dubai Cup was too high as i said – they should – it was.

Example …
After last years Cox Plate the Nov 6th Winx was given a WR130 … she didn’t race again.

http://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/WTRRankings/LWBRR.asp?batch=36

Final end-of-year ratings gave Winx a WR132

http://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/WTRRankings/2016_LWBRR_xZy.asp

Winx has received her first 132 this year for defeating Le Romain (WR120) by 7.3L in the Geo. Ryder, arguably her second defeating Hartnell (122) by 5.3L in the QEII and her 3rd defeating Humidor (122) by 7.3L in the Turnbull. Basically 3 confirmations within a year.

You will notice other adjustments as well.

Form has Winx as the best racehorse in the world – even if the rankings don't

Competent article Matt and i feel your pain.

Recently, i have seen a few ‘local’ articles criticising the IFHA. but UNDERSTAND HOW THEY DO … the ratings that are released each month identify the single highest racing performance rating for target animal usually in an international G1 contest during the NH racing year.

if the target horse races well below that high rating … then probably a bit-of-debate and an agreed figure usually less then that high mark – doesn’t happen often..

Arrogate’s 134 came in this year’s Dubai Cup. as you have pointed out matt – no confirmation this year. that rating is wrong now – it was always wrong. there , Arrogate deserves a high number. Always thought a WR130 was his number.

any horse that rates above WR125 is an absolutely outstanding animal and Arrogate was that (for 5 months) but his uncorrected high number insults many truly great horses.

Incidentally, Greg Carpenter, our ihfa rep, argues that Winx replicated her 132 in the Turnbull. the best performance of any horse world-wide this year. it was pretty close i reckon, particularly if Gun Runner supposedly rated 129 in the 2017 Breeders Classic – another joke from the americans …

i absolutely support Carpenter’s proposition that Winx is the world’s best horse and has been for some time … probably since last year’s Cox.

the cunning behind these U.S ratings is they get to justify both numbers at once. Arrogate beat home Gun Runner in the Dubai Cup. and now, gun runner has only slightly improved his rating to win this year’s classic. What a surprise they have both been retired to stud and can’t be tested any further..

i cannot think of a situation where Gun Runner could beat Winx, Enable, Cracksman or Ulysses or 2000m … and there are a couple of really nice Japanese horses ready to loosen up next month.

Anyway, the finalised ‘world rankings’ order is based on their overall best performances throughout the year decided during the pzzz-up when all the rep handicappers gather … used to be at HK’s international week and officially after released after.the Arima Kinen (24/12) … the last major of the year.

Do i think Winx will get the nod? … yes or at worst share it.

PS Hugh Bowman is hanging on to the world’s top jockey lead – Ryan Moore 12pts behind. Like to see him last but still a few races to go.

Form has Winx as the best racehorse in the world – even if the rankings don't

thx max. hope the punt treated you well during the magic week and all spring for that matter.

might have some fun on saturday … should we start backing almandin now … no … better let Lloyd go first 🙂 just good manners. But seriously, the noms are good. hope the fields holdup for the metro finisher. always liked the Sandown Guineas as a race … filled with hopefuls and if the winner can do a Gd3 95.5sec or better … it usually turns out to be a good horse.

more later …

Cup week a story of the old and new

peeeko … at the moment there is a ban on HK travel … they could send him there but it would be 6 months in quarrantine before they get him back!.

Japanese sprinters lack the international authority required to turn heads of big-money.

At the moment the poms are going the crow about their current crop of sprinters. headed by the ‘world’s best sprinter’ … Harry Angel rated WR125. That’s 2 pts higher than the best from our golden crop.

this year we’ve seen in succession, proclaimed the ‘best’ … Lady Aurelia, Caravaggio, Harry Angel, Marsha, Battash and what have they all got in common … an a-kicking at their next start. none of their form is confirmed … they have been playing musical chairs.

I like what i seen with Merchant Navy this spring. Still raw. we’ll see whether he can take the next step in the autumn but i wouldn’t be using defeats by Red or Chau as a reason for not going.

Cup week a story of the old and new

Aransan, as mentioned, each major racing jurisdiction produce WFA scales that are slightly different. at the bottom of this post the link to the new revised UK scale is there … be the first kid on your block to … 🙂

By the way, with this 1.5kgs we are talking about 3yrs+MDS aren’t we?

I wasn’t doubting the 6 months mentioned. I was just pointing to fixed ‘rollover’ general horses birthday is 5 months and that is what the WFA scale is based on and the scales are different. Again maybe there are newbies trying to understand this stuff.

Interesting enough, the UK scale suggests a staying horse matures mid-way thru their 4th year … our scale says our stayers mature at 5 years … 6 months later. Although their 2000m horses mature just into their 4yrold yr (feb) where our neddys mature in may – 9 months into their 4yrold year … all this probably explains why our young male horses need so much cearsil.

Anyway this is what i meant when i suggested that a whole lot of numbers come into play before they decided on the discount rate.

The new alterations BHA(uk) WFA scale. for those not used to them, they read a little differently from ours. this is reflected by a zero. the numbers preceding that point are the weight-in-pounds discount they receive.

i encourage your study of the WFA scale it will time well spent.

Links to scale towards bottom of page.
http://www.britishhorseracing.com/press_releases/bha-implement-alterations-flat-weight-age-scale/

Cup week a story of the old and new

You have done well aransan. nearly correct about the 6 months notion but the northern hemisphere season begins Jan 1 and ours Aug 1. Most foals a born a month or two post those dates.

Taj Mahal was born 28-01-14 but you can see on our AU ‘horses birthday’ Aug-01 he turns 1yrold when actually the poor little bugger is still a baby. For newbies, on Aug-01, all AU racehorses age one year regardless of their actual birth-date.

It would be equally unfair with Taj Mahal born the previous January to an August rollover that he is actually zero years. Now regardless of when horses are bred, NH or SH … horses resident in australia would age a year (for race qualification purposes) every Aug01 so 2yrolds and 3yrolds can race against their own age.

The official handicappers decided that an arbitrary 1.5kgs was a fair call after doing a lot of averaging of age performances at different times of the year and including horses actual birth dates etc.

Example Rekindling is a March foal and in real time (birth-date), is two moths younger than Taj Mahal. If both horses were to return to England right now they would be weighted as 3yrolds having their weight reduced 1.5 kgs from our scale.

So horses of technically the same age … moving from southH to northH would have to carry 1.5kgs more because in the breeding year our horses have ‘5 months’ start and going the other way 1.5kgs less. This continues until maturity is reached.

you are starting to think about the WFA scale the right way 🙂 but i got some ordinary news for you … the UK scale is slightly different from the one we are used too.

Cup week a story of the old and new

Cam, you nailed the carnival. It does seem an age since everyone kicked off in Sydney with Winx’s return and Vega Magic forcing recognition in the Memsie.

But as you outlined, the highlight has been so many rising stars and we have a couple of 3 year-olds like She Will Reign waiting in the wings.

Merchant Navy has a sprinter’s pedigree of the ages that will see stud’s open their wallets but he should be kept in work as a 4yrold not only to prove himself but as a visitor to England’s showcase sprints. Redzel’s connections are saying they are staying here so if I had him … that’s what i’d be thinking … he is the perfect type. He might be worth $15 mill now but you win one of those sprints change the dollar sign to GBP. They already like the Fastnet Rocks.

and i really liked the oaks this year – the first four over the line show great promise. And also looking forward to see how David Payne brings Ace High along. Watch this master trainer go to work … he’s only about a third-the-way along.

How about High Chaparral siring the Derby and Cup winners in different hemispheres and nearly clocks up the Oaks with Bring Me Roses. Big week.

great news about JVemeer. Jane Ivil will have to keep wearing that pearl earing.

And to end the carnival with Redzel dominating a quality line-up of sprinters, who could be disappointed with this springs racing.

But i am looking forward to next saturday at Sandown. usually a day of good racing on a beer and pie afternoon.

Cup week a story of the old and new

well dunn, got it right – more tomorrow.

maybe you heard a high-pitched shrieking in the heavens after they had goone just 50 metres. it wasn’t the banshees, it was me from a 500 miles away screaming at the TV … ‘ expletive, expletive, brain-dead, expletive’ … anyway, my doctor says i need to rest now …

2017 Emirates Stakes Day: Tips and preview

well done sarah (and capt. america). i only suggested but you put your hard-earned down. and with your success, you are doing what recreational punters should do … turning your bit-of-luck into a tangible reward that makes you happy and in this case spreads joy to others. i hope your xmas is filled with happiness.

Handicapping the Darley Classic

Fastnet Tempest looks really solid.

I liked Taj Mahal’s gallop in the Caulfield Stks. He returned one of the better 1000 metre sectionals in the race although finishing near the tail. He has a WR that makes him v.competitive and good value for the exotics. I’d be disappointed if he didn’t show-up.

Heaven’s Above was narrowly beaten over 1800 metres early in her career. If she gets the trip, she has a bit on these but only a minor consideration.

Really nice value in Race 4. Mick Price’s two and teams Hawkes and Cerchi might provide some competition for the West Australian … who is a pretty good horse all the same.

On numbers, Qwey should be beaten in the Queen Liz Stks. But i can’t get his stablemate, Francis of Assisi’s five length demolition of this race last year out of my head. Maybe there is a scale jump in Qwey like FoA.

Kiwia and Venguer Masque are on reasonably level marks with a leaning to the promising nature of the Weir horse. Tristan mention in his Geelong Cup preview that he had heard the stable considered him G1 potential. This should sort that out 🙂 ..

T.McEvoy is having a great carnival Kourham looks well placed, even though Having Plenty has a good mark, and come to think of it Shamkiyr and Tarquin can be there too … who said ‘you can’t tip them all’ … what rubbish.

Handicapping the Darley Classic

Racing’s great isn’t it. It’s no different to another great sport. like going to the footy with mates who are barracking for opposing teams. you’ll argue till you are blue in the face all with no personal disrespect then the game starts … contest … and when the final siren sounds someone greats bragging rights for five minutes … and then it’s onto next week.

Again, you continue to make a valid points and i will be backing Redzel as well. for many of the reasons you have mentioned … actually I’m backing Team Hawkes to have him ready for today … they has him ready for The Everest … gee i hope one of them wins 🙂 .

Hope it is a happy punt for you today … plenty of value about.

Handicapping the Darley Classic

Sorry tristan, for the lateness, a few things going on.

What bad luck for Ben Smith and connections. It is a feeling that leaves you so empty. hope it is nothing serious.

Replacement has to Vega Magic but as mentioned there are a clump around the OHR111 and with Vega at OHR113. Looks like i got no place to hide with my two picks … won’t want it any other way …

if i get time to post here … maybe one or two others today that seem … well-placed … 🙂 .

Handicapping the Darley Classic

Max, for heaven’s sake it is horse-racing. Impending is solid in the market and that takes serious knowledge and money. Over the years i’ve learned to trust my method and it is ‘right-enough’ not right-always.

Maybe don’t back him like a moral … and you are allowed to margin your ‘book’ – invest in a way that offers safeguards – exotics – backing more than one runner etc.

the thing at Moonee Valley was that John Hawkes was on course. When i heard that i went again. that scratching was mystifying. i watched him walk-and-trot and he looked alright to me and when he cow-kicked when lead away … he was starting to get dirty because he wanted to get-going … because he wanted to race. Bet Dunn doesn’t get out of the saddle for any reason today 🙂

Handicapping the Darley Classic

Who are you talking about ? … Chris Waller? I’ve commented extensively here on Chris Waller and I can’t ever remember writing nothing but praise about CWaller and his achievements as an elite trainer, as a positive face for racing and as person cut from the best cloth.

Don’t give me that silver spoon stuff pal. Racing doesn’t work like that. Sooner or later you have to earn your own stripes. Over the years, many have tried, few have succeeded.

You know he trains on his own/family property, has over 100 horses in work, half of them jumpers with very few belonging to Coolmore/Ballydoyle and he has already won a 100 races and only being going 18 months or so.

Credit where credit is due. Ask Chris what he thinks of Joseph’s achievement?

Just saying …

The Melbourne Cup is still important

just about finished handicapping the meet. I have a differing opinion so instead of clogging up this thread. i’ll type away now and send it in.

You could be right Cam. But I don’t see the evidence for it. He hasn’t got any slower, if his sprint and top split are any guide.

Impending? he has to improve 2.5 lengths on his best to be just be competitive with your other three picks who are right in the mix. The only horse on the rise that can trouble the elite is the unlucky In Her Time.

And yes, i think this will be a re-run of The Everest. Before the Everest i said something along the lines … ‘ i was so surprised how close Chau gets to Redzel in the pace map’ … i reckon the same thing here … and maybe v.v.v.close.

anyway, i ‘ll have a little type and send it in 🙂 ..

2017 Emirates Stakes Day: Tips and preview

Rail out 3m and only the babies race to access the straight course to get an inkling of where they will go?

Hope they go to the fence … leave plenty of clear air down the middle. Still trying to figure Lindsay Park’s two.

Cam, i just realised you left chau out of your T4 🙂 …

just received an email saying the RacingAustralia DB online form-guide states that Chau’s distance stats say one start or a second (1:0:1:0). checked and It’s true. this is supposed to be the official reference form-guide for australian racing . Maybe they have changed the distance of the race and haven’t told us? anyway, that’s a serious blue.

2017 Emirates Stakes Day: Tips and preview

Lucky boy Scott, you got to attend a kodak-moment Cup. wish i had been there.

JNL – it was a wonderful … so pleased for the young man. And i’m sure his parents are so proud. Friends that i spoke to after the event, most not racing people, were thrilled for the young man. As for Willie Mullins … what great horse trainer he is. You would just give him cash and tell him go find me a couple of Cup contenders.

Personally, I just want good horses racing in and winning the Melb Cup. People don’t talk about ‘when Polo Prince won the Cup’ or ‘what a world-beater Brew was’, they talk about events like … when Galilee beat Light Finger … when Might and Power held off Doriemus … when Almandin battled Heartbreak City and now they will talk about the day, and way, the O’Brien’s horses fought out the Cup. Countries don’t win Cups … horses do.

I think we have had six Ascot Gold Cup winners contest the Melb Cup without success. Reckon this year we will be sending a Melbourne Cup winner back over to capture the Ascot Gold Cup – won’t that cement the Cup’s place in world racing.

The Melbourne Cup is still important