Yes, the thought had crossed my mind. Now Williams Racing are making it known that Issac Newton will cross from the outside to lead ensuring a truly run race … i’d be inclined to keep IzzyNewton out there as long as possible … that would sharpen the race up a little.

Counting on a G3. The pace is so crucial in this CC. There are a few horses v.effective at 2400m and beyond.

JVermeer … can’t get his failure to run down Spanish Steps (stablemate and pacemaker) off a soft pace in the Ballyroan (2400m). He certainly zips at 2000m as he did at his previous IRE start beating the v.good horse Success Days.

Humidor looks venerable at the weights and even distance in a truly run affair – remember his touch-up by Jameka in the BMW. He was beaten some distance in 2016 NZ Derby.

If Marmelo / Wicklow Brave / Single Gaze / Boom Time / Jon Snow … can wind-it-up from the 1200m applying race pressure for the last half. i think Marmelo could prove the best of the visitors. Whether he can hold Harlem and Amelie’s Star is another matter. Chad has to be thinking were he wants to be when they up the ante.. He’s been riding well in HK (15% SR).

Amelie’s Star, undefeated at 2400/2500m gives Craig a tricky ride from that gate but i think he might have Dunaden in his tactical thinking.

Again the pace is the key, if they slow it on the far bend like you see them do time and again then the 2000m horses get their chance to sprint

That is dreadful misfortune for both Admire Deus and connections. A dreadful injury for a horse. it seems a situation where you would expect the worst and hope for the best.

On Winx going to Japan … just two words … Makybe Diva. 🙂

… yep it is pretty ordinary. to use footy parlance … domestic G1s should be semi-finals and finals with Grand Finals being international G1s (5 rating pts higher – 115). i had the same prob with the Memsie — having opening rounds to the comp as G1s weakens the creditably of the whole structure.

was a great race 🙂 .

there are nominating criteria issues with making it a G1. See what happens to the Peagus race in the US. i think the evertest has to be staged at least three years before it can be considered. i suppose that’s why they wanted a 3 year commitment from stake holders.

See they upgraded the Warwick Stakes to G1 …

what a sad, tired boring cliche.

solid analysis Tristan. yesterday when the field came out put them through the first wringer – no pace profiles etc just match-ups / spd / optimum running position with still a lot to do before settling on something … just a sneak preview for an excited old kid. the first look surprised me but it was really close to your race profile.

The auto gave the 3yrolds a couple of negs from somewhere but i reckon that is only race pressure queries. these babies haven’t copped anything like this but as Tristan points out SWReign keeps stepping up and on straight numbers she is right there.

Anyway, the interesting thing from my first look was how close Chau and a slightly weakening Redzeal come to together at the post. Really, really close.

Having a quiet think, a lot of tactical race pressure lies with Jeff Lloyd. Do Lloyd and Brown force Redzeal forward with
Vega Magic coming across or does Lloyd zip out for 300m to try and con a cheap 400m after that … ‘time’ will tell … it really is a great race.

Thought the consolation was a really good race too.

valid queries Aransun but i think Chris Waller is thinking about a campaign.

I would think both the Queen Anne (1m.) at Ascot is on the agenda and two months later the Juddmonte, with plenty of options for a race in between. I doubt she would meet any heavyweight competition before the Juddmonte.

i would think she would start her campaign in the Sydney Autumn and take that residual fitness to the training downs of Newmarket befor heading off to Lambourn.

the QAnne was the race won by Frankel producing a rating of 138, and Goldikova (130) and of course Haradasun

She has done all thislong campaign stuff before – Autumn campaign in Sydney (2nd Oaks) then to QLD winning her 2 there, the last on May30 … the Queen Anne is run on June 14th …

She is an undefeated traveler … with a distance range from 1300 to 2200 (and beyond?) … she won’t have any trouble Euro G! pressure … the age thing … she has been virtually untested for 2 years … when it looks like she is in trouble she produces sub 22sec sprints.

But she is aging and at anytime she may decide she has had enough excitement … she is in the right hands to have the plug pulled at any time.

PS of yes … and currently she is the best racehorse in the world and one the greatest ever mares to walk onto a racecourse … i hope everything goes swimmingly for Chris Waller and connections so she gets an undisputed shot.

Nice work Pat. Phil Smith, retiring head handicapper of the BHA (Brotosh Racing Authority) gave a very interesting World Ranking to Enable after the Arc. He rated her 128. Why interesting? Phil is implementing a new European WFA scale next year before he retires. His new WFA scale suggests as Enable matures into a 4yrold her ability should develop by at least 4lbs/4pts … 128 + 4 =132. Cheeky pom.

but to answer, no she doesn’t have to go but from my point of view to see Winx ling up against Enable, Ulysses and no doubt the ace Euro 3years-old of next year in the Juddmonte International (2000m) on a beautiful flat track like York with a 1000m run-in … they will understand what the Winx wobble is!

PS i ain’t got a prob with Enable’s WR, she is a stunning racehorse. i just got a prob with Winx’s low by 3 pts WR.

Quite seriously, i’m pleased you drew my attention to Harlem early Tristan. i did notice him working home quite well inside Almandin but i was more focused on the German. Harlem already qualified for the Caul Cup, is currently 60th in line for the MCup.

He is close to Bonneval at the CC weights but i dare say on a perusal of their pace figures … he may be a quicker horse on top of the ground. That 2 minute gallop in the Naturalism was impressive.

The distance between Amelie’s Star and Harlem in both races (Nat & BC) remained about the same in the straight although their beginning positions were reversed and he meets her 2kg better.

I pretty much know your on top of the above otherwise you would not have mentioned him (again 🙂 ).

But another incident occurred in the BC … something happened to Harlem inside the distance maybe he resented Dunn’s strong riding or he was startled by something behind him that caused him to momentarily lose concentration, turning his head, as if to look behind him before going again.

Spot-on Tristan he was real good find. i missed it – getting old.

in his autumn prep he went to the sydney cup in three starts, i thought he was very good in that race, especially with hindsight … he isn’t a wet-tracker. He was v.competitive until the 200m when exertion got a bit much for him but he didn’t quit.

Chad Schofield rode him very well in that race and i think will retain the ride in the CaulCup (?).

Really good find Tristan and now all that is needed is … a G3 track and a barrier inside 8. But remember, young fella, never take the stable’s odds … it’s just plain bad manners.

Did i just take your next story 🙂 oops . No … you’ve got plenty …

also liked the way Johnny Vinko was sneaking home on the fence with his stablemate charging down the outside to victory. with stablemate Sully, the Busuttin/Young training team are looking to have a very authoritative hand in the Derby if they all get there. it was a big call from them to jump JV from a Bendigo maiden defeat to a Flem. Listed race and prove to be right. wouldn’t be the first time a maiden won the VRC Derby 🙂 .

PS unlucky throw at the stumps with the Grandduke hope the exotics were worth something? 🙂

Agree Razzar and Cam. The Humidor gut-buster is a possibility. Most don’t realise how quick Winx can go. we got a taste of it in Sydney with her 3 heart-stoppers when she was asked to put the pedal to the metal. Humidor is a v.good horse with a current WR122 equal to that of Hartnell. The Caulfield Cup has always resulted in a very average performance on my part. I can never feel happy about the race until a few hours before = a nightmare of variables.

Seems we were impressed by the same stuff concerning Humidor. It was hard to miss. With the Turnbull, i started laughing at the 350m, it was like a replay of last year’s Cox … everything was off-the-bit and she is doing a working gallop. i would have loved to have seen that gallop at Flem last monday when she chased down Japonisme – nice bit of work i reckon 🙂 .

Fancy getting to see two of the legends of world racing, Black Caviar and Winx, within a decade in our own backyard. If you would said that this was possible to me after Makybe Diva’s third Cup i probably would have replied … ‘it’s not going to get much better in this country than a horse capable of 3 cups’ … what a pleasure to be wrong.

Congrats to Team Williams for turning the race into a genuine test with a determined pace. Hope the same happens in the Cox.

good stuff. there’s so many of these races smaller trainers bypass. Good-on the trainer for thinking about maximising returns for her owners. the prize is equivalent to winning a TAB country meet race and i’m sure will mop-up a few invoices. And the owners get to watch Winx from a great seat.

that .com.au site of yours mentioned slipped under the radar. Focused on the MCup, it’s good quality … you’ve put me on the comment black-list already, right? 🙂

You are making my point JLN … both Timeform and the World Rankings are historical documents that SHOULD be quality reference material for future generations.

Phil Bull the handicap innovator and founder of Timeform is a legend. He was able to infuse American speed figures into european style racing. i too used to buy the Timeform Annuals of past years. so TF used to have my respect. When he ran the show, TF numbers were mostly reliable, particularly at an elite level.

Good handicappers take pride in their work. what has happened to Timeform numbers over the last couple of years? — well who knows but a little reverse engineering suggests too much speed emphasis for Euro races particularly when the variants (adjustments between tracks and surfaces) are clumsy.

Australia with the world’s second biggest racehorse population is very difficult with 3+ strata system but ultimately it can be accurately reduced to a number but to do that would throw our Benchmark system into chaos and since 80% can’t understand it anyway, the officials have opted to create speed divisions within benchmark bands that does the job.

But once the elite level is reached – 100+ benchmark rating – then worldwide you are talking about 6% of the horse population at a much more manageable level. Comparing them is not as difficult if they are built on solid foundations … and future open-aged WFA events are predictable within reason.

One of the problems both h.styles are running into is letting the race name qualify the ratings of contestants – easy but really sloppy – Phil Bull would have never have done that!

if a remember rightly TF were in serve fin.trouble when Betfair brought them and have since on-sold a slab to Paddy Power. i really don’t know who is the TF overseeing handicapper now?

The invention that is coming out of the U.S over the last few years may very well undermine the whole historical aspect – what odds that two consecutive top rated horses would return the incredibly high mark of OHR 134 when a comparison reveals they had only one race victory in common.

Seems to me if Gun Runner beats Arrogate in the Classic he then will have pretensions to 130+ figures and if Arrogate returns to a mark that beats Gun Runner than they U.S get to say ‘i told you so’ he is 134 rater … thats what happens when you start from an inflated mark.

Nice to hear from JNL and Tristan. i’ll have to get a facebook page but hey … what the heck …

JNL — Timeform and the WFA/Benchmark method used by official Handicappers (and me) start from different marks. Timeform starts from 10st (or used to) where the Benchmark scale starts around 9st 7lbs scale depending of a few factors. This difference accounts for the noted ‘higher’ Timeform rating compared to official marks. It’s just a higher scale. So JNL when you read my or the OHR mark add 4 to 6 to get an equivalent Timeform rating.

Currently on the Official World Rankings (going into the Arc) had Enable sitting on a 126, Ulysses on 127 … Ulysses had beaten the dual 2000g winner, Churchill (OHR 123) by 2 lens (4pts) in the Juddmonte and also repeated his defeat of Barney Boy at G1 level …

so 5 things could account for Ulysses 3L defeat by Enable in the Arc …

Ully really does only like GF ground as Stoute has stated previously
or Churchill underperformed at York giving him a false mark, a possibility on his poor run in the Irish Champion
or the high Arc race pressure took its toll
or he might not see out the 2400m at G1 level now with 3of4 starts=defeats with his only win in a Class1 as you would expect from an animal of his quality
or the fav., Enable is a better horse.

Let’s see what happens when Ully drops back to 2000m?

As for Cloth Of Stars, improvement noted – won the Ganay G1 beating a competent field; would have won the Foy if his rider got him to the outside at the 300m and now 2nd in the Arc – seems to be finding his feet lately and it certainly would be hard to give him an OHR mark under 123 with the horses that he beat home in the Arc. he was passing some tried chasers but i liked his effort. we’ll see what he does from here.

But back to the Timeform ratings … I don’t use Timeform – i have never use Timeform … too many inexplicable errors.

If you don’t believe me … this is their mid year (2017) release … https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/global-rankings/2017-timeform-global-rankings-2932017 — notice anything? Well … anything major?

Maybe you might want to compare them with the official world rankings (OHR) that came out a few days later … http://www.ifhaonline.org/resources/WTRRankings/LWBRR.asp?batch=42

to capture the top horses globally on their own required a spread of 14/15pts = 15pts for Timeform and 14pts for the OHR. basically the same band except there seems to be a few major omissions in Timeform’s list that appear in the OHR list leading into July 2017 … like 4 of the first 5 over the line in the Arc are missing from Timeform? WTF? Also notice that Decorated Knight is on the OHR but not on Timeform’s list.

anyway, i started developing my own ratings over 4 decades ago after reading a book called ‘Winning’ written by an australian gambler, Don Scott (i’m not a devotee of Scott. as later i ended up knew him too well … his book introduced me to George.E Smith who i do look on as a mentor.

Smith wrote in his book … “After the official handicapper has allotted the weights to be carried in a race, it is then that the player is put to the test, and it is his judgment against that of the official handicapper. If he can find a flaw in the official handicapper’s work, he will probably find the winner of the race.” — over four decades later i still have his book and still read it occasionally although i could probably recite it to you 🙂 .

i had a strong racing-trade background, starting like a lot of kids the age of 12 mucking out boxes before progressing and was fortunate, by chance, to be around horses of all levels and v.good professional horse-racing people who taught me well about the nuances of the sport.

So by the time i got to ‘Winning’, i had an inkling about finding the ‘flaw’. I didn’t see any point in re-inventing the wheel. Modern Official handicappers are restrained and restricited by rules and norms – this can be exploited by the diligent.

Over the years, the world’s official handicappers (in some countries) have become excellent judges at determining a horse’s peak/potential. these days they don’t secret any of their methodology and if you are willing to do your research, analyse their ratings … you’ll work it out. mind you, there are only some ratings coming out of a few countries that will surprise … but that’s cool … as silly ratings will meet reality sooner or later.

My silly rating of the moment is Gun Runner 127 (OHR) … in what universe would that happen?

Gun Runner has won 3 straight G1’s by a collective of 22.25L. BUT WHO DID HE BEAT?

In those 3 consecutive G1’s he beat a 2015 G1 winner only. The 3yrold Travers winner Keen Ice managed to beat a genuine G1 horse, Shaman Ghost, in a G2 two starts ago, his only win since the Travers. Gun Runner also collected the scalps of a couple of G1 placegetters (that’s all) and about 3 or 4 G2/G3 winners in those three ‘big’ wins – the rest of the also-rans were handicappers … WTF?

as a comparison, Enable has won 5 straight G1s (2 open-aged) by a collective 22.5L beating high-class G1 fields representing 5 major racing jurisdictions. did you notice Rhododendron, the filly she belted by 5L in the Oaks, win the G1 l’Opera earlier in the day.

i don’t think i’ll be far away from the OHR mark with 129 for Enable. we’ll see in a week or so with the next release of OHR rankings.

For some of us, handicapping isn’t as subjective as Timeform ratings might suggest to the populus …

Enable’d as expected … probably see her mark move to 129 or thereabouts. Ulysses was great and down a few points on his peak due to the ground. Order of St. George and most of the others back to 9th / 10th where close enough to their mark to confirm this year’s quality renewal = excellent. the exception maybe was Cloth of Stars returning a 125 — his form this year has been really strong, so let’s see if he can return a confirmation mark before season’s end or maybe this effort becomes just a wet-track rating.

japanese sprinter Red Flax double-dosed the J.Sprinters Stks on Sunday. i thought last year he performed much better than his 115 officially given when he won … he was v.v.impressive on Sunday with an off the bat 118 or so and he wouldn’t have looked out of place in the Everest field. shame he failed so badly in HK – gets an invite to the Breeders Cup – interesting :-).

the European sprinters musical chairs continued with Battaash towelling a good field in the L’Abbaye turning around a 9L differential from the Nunthorpe. he seems a short course horse who likes wet tracks … a lot. Not an Everest type
🙂 .

Never forget … one of the best AJC derby fields ever assembled – First 5 over the line Octagonal, Saintly, Filante, Roysyn (NZ Derby winner) , Nothin’ Lieca Dane …

… VRC/AJC Derby winner Mahogany winning Lightnings FU and just being nutted in the Cox by Octagonal 🙂 … a forgotten champion.

Egg Tart out of the Epsom, field back to 10 – maybe a blessing as i thought her stablemate had her measure over the 1600m. Hope Joao doesn’t rush the Waller neddy into too forward a position as has been his pattern in his last 2. he has quite a handy finish when ridden off-pace.

Foxplay gets to prove herself exceptional if she can fill a slot as the most disadvantaged horse at the weights … just in front of McCreery and Happy Clapper. Mind you, i think she might and will end-up a little higher on the scale than she currently is.

Been a while since Gai Waterhouse/Bott are without a runner in the Epsom. See they shipped Equador to MV tonight.

Thought GRyan’s Red Excitement engagement of BAvdulla curious. Avdulla has ridden him before but in a sit and sprint role. thought Adam Hyeronimus the pea, as he rode him in front to break a 25year old track record winning the Gosford Cup (2100m) beating Sense of Occasion last january. His only chance to win, is to do what he has been doing and although beaten 9L last start but he still ran 95s.

Caulfield on Sunday — just glad to see Our Century back. was becoming a little worried that something had gone wrong … 73rd in the order of MC entry, so has a bit of work to do … thought him a lay-down misere in the Sydney Cup before WilliamsRacing decided to take him back home … proboably with something else in mind 🙂 .

we don’t disagree often but the Epsom is a genuine G1 handicap. you have 5 horses in this race capable of running a 94s Randwick mile with another 2 having positive question marks. while happy clapper is public elect, he is No.4/5 in my current thurs Good3 book but i can still see how he can win. i can see why GRyan runs Red Excitment in the Epsom instead of the Hill … this is going to be one-hell-of-a-race.

i certainly can’t remember so many points of interest each week. The early verbal fisticuffs between NSW / Vic has amounted to nought. Both jurisdictions have provided several highlights every week for the last six weeks and is set to continue for another couple of weeks in Syd and Melb before Vic showcases the best of our spring racing as it has always done.

thought the Hill Stakes would fall over on the same day as the Epsom but it has ended up adding a good race and colour to the card. it maybe only a borderline G2 but good enough to be there. the metrop is back to being a good race …

i think VicRacing should make a big deal of yesterday’s Derby and Oaks trials in future years. Great idea for the Wednesday card at this time. Not only did they turn out to be revealing high quality races but it gives stables plenty of paths to the Derby. That’s the spirit VicRacing.

Yes agree Scuba – Williams Racing or the China Horse Club 🙂 although you never know how a deal could be done but i reckon there is a profit in him … one way or another.

also your comments about Savanna Amour were spot on. QLD form horses that can adapt to the reverse way seem to represent tremendous value in Vic.

also particularly cool to see Chris Meagher open his account … no soft wins in Benalla maidens … no … open your account in a G3 in a full field at Caulfield with the books betting against you … perfect. as if this family doesn’t know what it takes to win races in Melb. at this time of the year.

not detracting from the toughness of Dschingis Secret and his win in France (solid pace) but thought the Foy was a messy race and would have liked to have seen Cloth of Stars and Silverware in clear air testing him. His form is good G2 stuff with a win over the genuine G1 horse Hawkbill (116) in the domestic G1 Berlin.

Dschingis Secret may have bitten of more then he can chew going to the Arc although Klug trained G.champ 3yrold Sea The Moon who Our Ivanhowe beat in the Baden but never got his chance at the Arc …

actually i think Klug may have preferred 3yrold stablemate Colomano over Windstoss … but probably not now.
As for Dschingis Secret as a potential Cup horse … i think i’d take Windstoss who has more potential but i’d like to see the little fella move into a more progressive environment 🙂 .

Nice early bet with Harlem Cam. no trouble selling it back on the exchanges and have him running a sizable running for nothing 🙂 . they brought him with lesser French black-type form and the horses he competed against are still in that grade … but that is the beauty of a handicap …

Another very serious German racehorse confirmed his quality last weekend. this year’s G.Derby winner, Windstoss, won the Europa G1. weak field but he was v.good. previous start he finished 4th in the Baden to the 2 horses who chased Protectionist home the previous year. he was ridden way too close. i liked his derby performance so i’ve kept an eye on him and he has a terrific stayers pedigree with a turn of foot. a grandson of Monsun … be interesting to see if the au-cash goes chasing him … it should 🙂 .

Absolutely agree about TA and if memory serves me right Cam, you tipped him in the Stan Fox. and like you, he was always on my radar but i didn’t see a 7L turn around coming … expected the blinkers improvement but not a turnaround of over a second.

there is something strange about how the speed pressure went into that race – just the way the it came in and out. will go back again today and dissect the splits and vision for a few lessons maybe.

I was happy enough with Gold Standard although he didn’t travel as well as he did in the Stan Fox but still fought like a tiger = good horse.

have become the biggest fans of Bjorn Baker’s dynamic duo – Addictive Nature and Champagne Cuddles are top quality. CCuddles is a little 100%er … just sticks her head out and goes hard. she has coped everything thrown at her if think both of BB’s tiny tots have an excellent with a future.