Preview of AFL Round 6 matches (all times AEST):
FRIDAY, May 3
Collingwood v St Kilda at Etihad Stadium 7.50pm
Head to Head: Magpies 154 Saints 57 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 19 2012 – Magpies 12.19 (91) bt Saints 13.7 (85) at MCG
Sportsbet: Magpies $1.15 Saints $5.50
Scott Pendlebury has put the Magpies’ midfield on notice, claiming they cheated by running ahead of the ball in recent heavy losses to Hawthorn and Essendon. Expect a much more accountable performance this time around from the engine room. The return of Andrew Krakouer for his first senior game of 2013 gives Collingwood more of a cutting edge in attack. Not much has gone right for the Saints so far this year, but coach Scott Watters would be well pleased with the efforts of captain Nick Riewoldt.
Key: Darren Jolly returns and his ruck battle against Ben McEvoy will be very important. McEvoy has been talked about as the heir apparent to the Saints captaincy, while Jolly will be super keen to cement his status as the ‘Pies first-choice ruckman.
Tip: Magpies by 40 points
SATURDAY, May 4
Essendon v Greater Western Sydney Giants at Etihad Stadium 1.45pm
Head to Head: Bombers 1 Giants 0
Last clash: Round 9 2012 – Bombers 18.11 (119) bt Giants 7.11 (53) at Skoda Stadium
Sportsbet: Bombers $1.01 Giants $17.00
Without buying into the legalities or otherwise of the Essendon supplements program, they won’t need any performance-enhancing boost to get the chocolates in this game. The Bombers were super-impressive in putting away Collingwood on Anzac Day. Even without key defender Jake Carlisle (foot), they look too strong. In contrast, an already undermanned Giants defence will have to make do without co-captain Phil Davis, who is out for six weeks with a back injury. Big forward Setanta O’hAilpin (calf) will also be missed. Their No.1 draft pick Lachie Whitfield (soreness) is another omission.
Key: Will the Bombers already have one eye on next week’s table-topper against Geelong? It won’t change the result, but it might have some effect on the eventual winning margin against the hapless Giants.
Tip: Bombers by 100 points
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide at Blundstone Arena 2.10pm
Head to Head: Kangaroos 19 Power 8
Last clash: Round 8 2012 – Power 14.11 (95) bt North Melbourne 14.9 (93) at AAMI Stadium
Sportsbet: Kangaroos $1.38 Power $3.05
Whether it’s down to North’s good historical record over Port, the sense that the Kangaroos are unlucky to be 1-4 or a nagging feeling that the unbeaten Power are due for a fall, for some reason the odds seem skewed for this one. Even so, any doubts over Port Adelaide’s legitimacy as a finals chance will be erased if they can find a way past the Roos in Hobart. Port coach Ken Hinkley will not make the trip because of illness and key defender Jackson Trengove (broken foot) is an important on-field absentee for the Power.
Key: In the space of a couple of years, Lindsay Thomas has gone from the man who couldn’t hit the side of a barn to the man who can’t miss in front of goal. North Melbourne’s Coleman Medal leader is in the form of his life.
Tip: North Melbourne by 12 points
Adelaide v Hawthorn at AAMI Stadium 4.40pm
Head to Head: Crows 18 Hawks 15
Last clash: Finals Week 3 2012 – Hawks 13.19 (97) bt Crows 14.8 (92) at MCG
Sportsbet: Crows $4.60 Hawks $1.20
With Taylor Walker gone for the year with a ruptured ACL and Kurt Tippett gone for good to Sydney, the Adelaide attack is in disarray. The Crows were not disgraced in losing to the Blues last weekend at the MCG, but this shapes as an even tougher task for Brenton Sanderson’s men. Hawthorn have also lost a valuable forward for an extended period, with Cyril Rioli to miss a couple of months with a hamstring strain. But there are plenty of other Hawks to pick up the slack in attack.
Key: Lance Franklin was held to a rare goalless game against North Melbourne last weekend. You could write your own ticket about the prospect of that happening two weeks in a row.
Tip: Hawks by 30 points
Gold Coast v Fremantle at Gold Coast Stadium 7.40pm
Head to Head: Suns 0 Dockers 2
Last clash: Round 6 2012 – Dockers 14.10 (94) bt Suns 14.3 (87) at Gold Coast Stadium
Sportsbet: Suns $3.40 Dockers $1.32
Gold Coast are tracking slightly ahead of schedule so far this year, having won two of their first five games. If they could find a way past Fremantle it would be the strongest sign yet that they are really on the right road in their third season. And they are not without hope of causing an upset against a Freo team further weakened by the loss of important midfielder Nat Fyfe to suspension. Kepler Bradley (knee) and Stephen Hill (quad) are also missing.
Key: Charlie Dixon gave Gold Coast a vital focal point in attack last weekend, with six goals in the big win over the Giants. Repeating that effort against gun Dockers defender Luke McPharlin will be a much tougher ask.
Tip: Dockers by 20 points
Richmond v Geelong at MCG 7.40pm
Head to Head: Tigers 85 Cats 97 drawn 3
Last clash: Round 4 2012 – Cats 11.9 (75) bt Tigers 9.11 (65) at Skilled Stadium
Sportsbet: Tigers $3.05 Cats $1.38
This match pits the team that can find any number of ways to lose close games against the side that has the happy knack of winning from anywhere. But even though everything points towards another victory for unbeaten Geelong, there is also a sense that the Cats are due for a loss at some stage. They barely got out of second gear last weekend against the Bulldogs. Richmond look stronger for the returns of Steve Morris, Troy Chaplin and Jake King.
Key: Richmond’s inclusions are good, but the Cats’ ins are even better. Tom Hawkins and Paul Chapman are two more reason to pick a Geelong win with confidence.
Tip: Cats by 25 points
SUNDAY, May 5
Sydney v Brisbane at SCG 1.10pm
Head to Head: Swans 23 Lions 21 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 15 2012 – Swans 16.14 (110) bt Lions 9.9 (63) at SCG
Sportsbet: Swans $1.06 Lions $9.50
Sydney’s premiership defence is ticking along nicely, with plenty more improvement to come, especially if Lewis Jetta and Sam Reid can return to something near their best form. Ex-Demons onballer Brent Moloney was a standout last weekend for Brisbane against his former team, but he will have to step up even further against the Swans’ multi-faceted midfield.
Key: The successful return of Matthew Leuenberger from a serious ankle knee injury has been a real shining light for the Lions in 2013. And he’ll need to be at his best to go with big Swans Shane Mumford and Mike Pyke.
Tip: Swans by 48 points
Carlton v Melbourne at MCG 3.20pm
Head to Head: Blues 114 Demons 88 drawn 2
Last clash: Round 9 2012 – Blues 15.17 (107) bt Demons 6.13 (49) at MCG
Sportsbet: Blues $1.02 Demons $14.00
After a slow start under new coach Mick Malthouse, Carlton look to be building nicely, with Chris Yarran and Jeff Garlett forming a deadly duo in an attack which has been further strengthened by the return of Eddie Betts from a broken jaw. Bryce Gibbs (hamstring) will be missed by the Blues, but they should have little trouble covering for him this week. Jack Watts also misses the match for Melbourne with a hamstring problem.
Key: Under-siege Melbourne coach Mark Neeld is a former protege of Malthouse at Collingwood. The Carlton boss believes Neeld has done as well as could be hoped in his baptism of fire at Melbourne. But the close relationship between the two coaches won’t count for much on Sunday.
Tip: Blues by 55 points
West Coast v Western Bulldogs at Subiaco 4.40pm
Head to Head: Eagles 28 Bulldogs 14 drawn 1
Last clash: Round 1 2012 – Eagles 21.10 (136) bt Bulldogs 12.15 (87) at Etihad Stadium
Sportsbet: Eagles $1.06 Bulldogs $9.50
West Coast coach John Worsfold’s insistence that the 1-4 Eagles are still premiership contenders will look pretty hollow if they drop this game. Not that it’s likely to happen. The Eagles will be desperate to put last weekend’s shock fadeout against Port Adelaide well behind them. While Liam Jones is doing a pretty good job holding the Bulldogs’ attack together, West Coast have multiple dangerous forward targets in Jack Darling, Josh Kennedy, Josh Hill and Mark LeCras.
Key: The venue. West Coast would be red-hot favourites wherever this match was taking place. The fact it’s at Patersons Stadium removes just about any slim chance of an upset.
Tip: Eagles by 45 points
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