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Undefeated Ireland are heading into their Rugby World Cup quarter-final with Argentina as the favourites to win and make it through to the semi-finals, but will the weight of injuries and suspension may take its toll on the pre-match favourites?
The Irish topped Pool D with some impressive victories. They had no trouble in their first two matches, thumping Canada 50-7, and trouncing Romania 44-10, but then faced some more difficult challenges.
A 16-9 comeback win over Italy saw their final match of the pools stage, against France, become a battle of Pool D’s two as-yet undefeated teams. The Irish handed France their first loss of the tournament, recording a 24-9 victory.
More Rugby World Cup quarter-final previews:
>> South Africa vs Wales preview
That win saw them lock in top spot in Pool D and in doing so they avoided having to face the All Blacks first up in the quarter-finals, instead setting themselves for a match with the Pool C runners-up, Argentina.
However, their victory came at a cost, with several players, including captain Paul O’Connell, injured in the match, and Sean O’Brien cited for punching France’s Pascal Papé. More on that later.
Their inspirational captain has since been ruled out for the rest of the tournament, though the performance of his replacement Iain Henderson should be of some help to Irish fans.
Argentina’s own path to the quarter-finals has been mightily impressive, despite not being able to match the Ireland’s unbeaten record.
The Pumas campaign started with a loss – their only loss of the tournament so far – to the All Blacks, though if there is such a thing as an impressive loss, then Argentina’s 16-26 defeat certainly comes close.
After that they were dominant, destroying all comers. They look down Georgia 54-9, Tonga 45-16, and Namibia 64-19.
There’s some impressive numbers on their table at the end of the pools stage. A total of 179 points scored is not only better than that of the All Blacks, it’s actually the highest of any team in the competition.
A total of 22 tries scored is the third most of any side, and their total margin of +109 is far and away the best of any side to have finished second in a pool, and is in fact ahead of Ireland’s result (+99).
Of course, there’s a flipside to the coin, and that’s the fact that Argentina have conceded 70 points in their four matches, the second most of any of the teams that have made it into the quarter-finals, behind only Scotland (93).
So, there’s a bit to like about Argentina. Of all the sides to have finished runner-up in a pool, they look the most capable of any when it comes to upsetting a pool-winner in the quarter-finals.
And luck may just be falling in their favour, as Ireland’s list of absentees for the quarter-final and beyond just keeps getting longer and longer.
While the win against France gave Ireland the benefit of finishing on top of Pool D, the injuries and suspension that have come out of the game look like they could ruin Ireland’s chance of progressing further regardless.
Paul O’Connell has been ruled out for the rest of the tournament with a hamstring injury that he suffered before half-time in that match. The second-rower needs surgery and won’t make it back in time to play in any of their remaining games.
Sadly, it also brings to an end O’Connell’s international rugby career, as he announced in June his decision to retire from the international level of the game after the world cup. With 108 caps he finishes up as Ireland’s third most-capped player in history.
Ireland are also missing back-row Peter O’Mahony who is out of the world cup due to a knee injury. On top of that, they’re also sweating on the fitness of fly-half Johnny Sexton, who is no guarantee to play after suffering a groin strain against France.
To top it all off, Ireland will also be missing Sean O’Brien who has copped a one-week ban for punching Pascal Papé in their win over France.
O’Brien admitted to the punch and managed to get what could have been a two-week ban down to a single week, but it’s not going to make much difference if Ireland aren’t able to get over the line without him.
It’s not all doom and gloom for the Irish however. They’ve had some bad luck, but they’ll also enter the match with a number of reasons to be confident.
They’ve got a remarkably good recent record against Argentina, with five straight wins over the Pumas including two on Argentinian soil in 2014.
They’ve had a great year in 2015, and it’s not by accident that they’re the reigning back-to-back Six Nations champions.
Still, my feeling is that there’s something of an upset in the air. Those 2014 losses won’t mean anything to an Argentinian side that has improved as the year has gone on. And with Ireland’s outs, it’s looking like a perfect storm.
Prediction: A close battle, with Argentina to win by 4.
We will update the teams when they are named.