Saturday night was a telling point in Collingwood’s 2014 season. A win and a finals appearance was all but assured. A loss and it was going to be in a dog fight with three other clubs.
At three quarter time, the game was in the balance. With Gold Coast ahead, yet minus Gary Ablett, no rotations and fitness at their mercy, this was Collingwood’s game to win.
All it needed was a SOS to their leaders: Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury, Travis Cloke and Dayne Beams.
What transpired was an inspirational win for the Gold Coast and a devastating loss for Collingwood.
More devastating was that their leaders went missing.
Pendlebury just the three touches, Cloke one, compared to Swallow 11, Bennell 10 and Harbrow nine for the Gold Coast. Add to that their young key forwards took contested marks and kicked telling goals under pressure.
In years gone past, Dane Swan would have influenced the outcome. Instead, he had just three disposals in the final quarter and 19 for the game.
The worrying thing for Collingwood is that Swan not just went missing Saturday night; he has gone missing for much of the season – especially the last seven weeks.
Swan entered the season with a limited pre-season due to off-season surgery and it looks as though it is catching up.
There are reports from some corners of the media that he is carrying an injury to the ribs, with many saying that he has significant strapping to the area.
Over the past five years from 2009-2013, Swan has averaged 32 disposals a game. Added to that is his ability to influence the scoreboard, averaging 24 goals per season playing as a permanent midfielder.
This year, he is averaging just the 26 disposals and has only kicked the 10 goals, with four of those coming in his best game for the season against Essendon on Anzac day.
Notably, the lack of influence Swan is having is forcing his teammates to carry more of the load, with Steele Sidebottom being more influential in games this season, Dane Beams their second best midfielder getting more attention and greater rotation through the middle.
With less time in the midfield, Swan’s clearances numbers are just three a game compared to an average of 5.4 in the previous five years. The lack of midfield time has seen him be a small forward, yet his scoreboard influence has been minimal, with only six goal assists.
Swan has been renowned for his gut running, which is seen in his uncontested possessions. This year, he averages just 16 compared to 19 in the past five seasons.
Champion data ranking points measure the influence a player has on the game. In the past five years, Swan averaged 123.2, 126.9, 122.0, 126.2 and 117.3.
This year, he averages just 91 and has not scored over 100 since Round 6. The simple fact is his possession count for very little and the influence he is having on games is minimal.
The question that faces Collingwood is what they do over the next few weeks. With games against many of the contenders for their spot in the eight in the next month, they need their best players on the park. However they also need fit players and Saturday night was a telling example of that.
They can either play him more up forward which he has been doing this season or they can rest him and try and get any injury that he is carrying right.
The difficulty is whether the injury he is carrying will improve with rest and how long it will take.
As we tick over to the pointy end of the season and every game feels like an eight pointer, Collingwood will need its very best firing.
Dane Swan may be no slim shady, but Collingwood supporters will be hoping that the real Dane Swan stands up when they most need him to or they may miss out on finals.
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