Despite having not claimed a series sweep since 2000, the NSW Blues are favourites to beat the Queensland Maroons in Wednesday night’s final instalment of the 2018 State of Origin series.
The Blues are paying $1.63 to win, which could also be seen as a steal given they have won both games against the Maroons this year.
More Origin 3
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» NSW Blues player ratings: Game 3
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However, it can be argued that Queensland has more to play for as they look to send out Billy Slater as a champion. Several players will also be fighting to secure their position in Kevin Walter’s seventeen for next year’s series.
And of course, they also return to Suncorp Stadium for the first time this year. The Maroons are paying $2.30 to avoid the whitewash.
This is the first time that Queensland have started underdogs for a match at Suncorp since 2006, a sign that may not bode well for Brad Fittler’s men.
The line
Despite the odds being split by some value, the line is just 3.5 points. Boths sides are currently paying $1.90 to cover it.
Total points
Three of the last four dead rubbers have topped 40 points yet punters are undecided what Wednesday night’s game will bring.
So far, both games this year have failed to exceed 34 points. Both under and over 37.5 points are currently paying $1.90.
Margin
Punters are expecting yet another close victory for the Blues. They are currently paying $2.80 to win by 1-12 points.
Queensland 1-12 is the next best backed at $3.30.
A South Wales win by 13+ will only get you $3.75 while a Maroons victory by that margin will equate to a $6.50 return.
First try-scorer
No surprises here with all four wingers the best backed to cross over for the first try of Game 3.
Josh Addo-Carr has two tries from just as many games in his short Origin career and is $8.50 to score the first one on Wednesday night ahead of Tom Trbojevic, Corey Oates and Valentine Holmes, who are all paying $10.
Holmes has posted four-pointers in both games this year and may be a good bet if you are predicting a Queensland victory.
Of the 12 tries in the 2018 State of Origin series so far, just one has not been scored by an outside back.
James Tedesco is currently paying $12 while taking James Roberts or Billy Slater for first try-scorer will win you $15. Dane Gagai closely follows at $16.
The value bet is Will Chambers, who is currently sitting at $21 to post the first try of the night along with Cameron Munster, Damien Cook and James Maloney.
Here’s a full list of odds for first try-scorer.
Josh Addo-Carr (Blues) $8.50
Valentine Holmes (Maroons) $10
Corey Oates (Maroons) $10
Tom Trbojevic (Blues) $10
James Tedesco (Blues) $12
James Roberts (Blues) $15
Billy Slater (Maroons) $15
Dane Gagai (Maroons) $16
Damien Cook (Blues) $21
James Maloney (Blues) $21
Will Chambers (Maroons) $21
Angus Crichton (Blues) $26
Tyrone Peachey (Blues) $26
Jake Trbojevic (Blues) $26
Daly Cherry-Evans (Maroons) $26
Felise Kaufusi (Maroons) $26
Gavin Cooper (Maroons) $29
Ben Hunt (Maroons) $29
Coen Hess (Maroons) $29
Nathan Cleary (Blues) $29
Tariq Sims (Blues) $34
Nathan Peats (Blues) $41
Andrew McCullough (Maroons) $41
Jai Arrow (Maroons) $41
Cameron Smith (Maroons) $41
Josh Papalii (Maroons) $41
Josh McGuire (Maroons) $41
Paul Vaughan (Blues) $41
Ryan James (Blues) $51
Jack de Belin (Blues) $51
Blues Penalty Try $61
Maroons Penalty Try $61
David Klemmer (Blues) $71
Jarrod Wallace (Maroons) $81
Dylan Napa (Maroons) $81
Tim Glasby (Maroons) $81
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