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Australia's Harry Kewell at a Socceroos training session in Johannesburg, South Africa, Sunday, June 6, 2010. AP Photo/Rob Griffith.
There are two conflicting schools of thought on the Socceroos on the brink of the World Cup: one of unwavering optimism that the spirit and grit showcased in 2006 and solidified in qualification for 2010 will see our boys progress. The other is of pessimism that old legs (and an injured groin) will send the Socceroos out in straight sets.
We all want to be in the optimist’s camp, believing in Socceroos destiny and that the spirit of 2006 will help overcome the adversity of form, age and Germany. And they have some justification in their optimism.
Despite their differing personas and tactical nuances, there is a similarity between Guus Hiddink’s and Pim Verbeek’s Socceroos in their ability to grind out results and how they’ve instilled a winning mentality into their players.
For the pessimists, putting aside questions over Verbeek’s tactics, the biggest concern is the form and fitness of players throughout the spine of the Socceroos starting XI.
There won’t be any surprise in Verbeek’s XI. Assuming Kewell and Emerton are fit (a big assumption) the XI will look like this:
Mark Schwarzer (GK)
Luke Wilkshire (RB)
Craig Moore (CB)
Lucas Neill (CB)
Scott Chipperfield (LB)
Brett Emerton (RM)
Jason Culina (CM)
Vince Grella (CM)
Tim Cahill (CM)
Mark Bresciano (LM)
Harry Kewell (CF)
If Kewell doesn’t make it then Josh Kennedy slots into the lone striker role. If Verbeek doesn’t want to risk Kewell being run off his feet up front, then he can slot him into LM in place of the out of form Bresciano with Kennedy at the head. If Emerton isn’t fit, Richard Garcia gets his role.
Don’t expect any Hiddink-style surprises from Pim. We won’t be seeing Cahill on the bench against Germany, that’s for certain.
But throughout that XI is the concern over form and fitness.
At the back, Moore’s pace is a major concern, and the clubless veteran has struggled badly in the pre-tournament warm-ups. Of equal concern is the sluggish pace of partner Neill.
Both could easily be exposed by the strength of the Germans and pace of the Ghanaians. If so, tournament over.
There’s no concern with Wilkshire and Chipperfield on the flanks, thankfully. Both are reliable and consistent performers.
In the middle of the park, Culina has been as reliable as ever. Cahill is a gun, no question.
But Grella’s form is worrying. His mistake against the USA was woeful; his passing has been well off the mark (not good in his crucial position as midfield marshal); and his attempts to compensate for his lack of pace with overly aggressive tackling will have him back in the showers well before his teammates.
Also struggling is Bresciano, who seems to be a shadow of the player four years ago and is another who has lacked consistent football at club level.
Emerton and Kewell’s lack of football before the ultimate test of Germany is also a major concern. Can Verbeek risk starting them, lacking match fitness and underdone, alongside players also struggling for form in key positions?
Emerton’s battle to be fit is crucial.
The Socceroos are a significantly better side when he is fit and firing: linking brilliantly with Wilkshire on the right flank with the flexibility to go back or attack.
He is a more important cog in the Socceroos setup than the much more vaunted Kewell.
With Kewell out of action, Kennedy has taken the lone striker role and has been found wanting, albeit impeded by the lack of service from Bresciano and the absent Emerton.
There are undoubted weaknesses in the spine of the experienced but fragile XI.
So, if the Socceroos succumb to Germany, with the likes of Moore, Grella and co further exposed as the weakest links in the starting XI, does Verbeek have the courage to replace them with the second tier group with faith that players such as Michael Beauchamp, Mile Jedinak and co can do the job?
That could well be the decisive question once the tournament gets underway and will determine the Socceroos’ fate.
Pim, it’s in your hands. Don’t be afraid to be brave. It worked for Guus.
Or maybe the optimists have it right, and it’ll all be right.
We can only hope.