There’s all sorts of theories floating around the footy world about why St Kilda are suddenly looking over their shoulders with a top four spot not assured following a winless run of three games.
The Round 16 eight-goal loss to in-form premiership contenders Collingwood and the following weekend’s draw with top six candidates Hawthorn were results which were reasonably accepted in AFL circles.
But Friday night’s stunning 33-point loss to struggling Essendon initiated media talk of a crisis down at Moorabin.
It was barely over a month ago the Saints displayed their premiership credentials for everyone to see when they knocked off the reigning champs Geelong by four goals on a wet Friday evening at the MCG.
Now, though, the bookies have jumped off St Kilda, with Collingwood and Geelong becoming firm flag favourites, while the Saints have drifted out to fourth favourites behind the resurgent Dogs!
And The Age’s Michael Gleeson was writing their epitaph yesterday when he claimed “Saints footy died a month ago”.
Lately the Saints have dropped off, no doubt, but there’s still time and hope for a resurrection.
After all, this St Kilda group of players have lost their way previously and come out on the positive side before.
Don’t forget their woeful run from Round 5-8 (which included losses to Port Adelaide, Carlton and Essendon, and a very narrow victory over the Dogs) as well as their late stumble in the regular season last year.
So the current theories floating around explaining the latest ‘death of Saints footy’ include the players dropping off a few per cent following skipper Nick Riewoldt’s return from injury thinking he’ll make all the difference.
Then there’s the theory on contested footy which has the statistics to back it up, while Saints coach Ross Lyon said his side had become too Riewoldt-centric when entering 50.
From afar it’s hard to know, but these players will know something’s changed.
A team like St Kilda, who went to last year’s Grand Final after winning 22 out of 24 matches, simply don’t forget what’s required to win games of footy.
But sometimes you don’t apply it, and that’s not only during the two hours out on the field, but during preparation during the week and on gameday.
As Lyon said after Friday night’s loss, he thought his players were looking for an easy game of football. Their minds were not in it and consequently they were struggling from the opening bounce, as Essendon kicked seven goals to one in the first term.
The Saints players will be smarting from the Bombers loss but four weeks out from the finals, it’s not a bad time to cop a reality check.
The players will know what’s required to resurrect their brand of footy. They’ll also know they need to do just that given this week’s scrutiny and the close proximity now of the Dogs and Dockers on the ladder.
Lyon says there’s no magic solution, but encouraged his side to find their intensity and competitive spirit. Essentially these things are mental. It comes from the players, who must still be highly motivated by redemption from last year’s Grand Final defeat.
And with a relatively gentle run home against exclusively bottom 8 teams, the Saints will hope to re-discover their form and build some momentum before the finals.
From there they’ll take confidence in the fact they know they’re a good side. After all, they’ve beaten all the teams around them in the top five this season.
And ultimately, given the current domination at the summit by Victorian sides, as long as the Saints finish up in the top four you know they’ll be a major player come September.
Sure, their current form isn’t great and they’ve been cruising along of late, but there’s no margin for error now after the Essendon loss.
And given St Kilda’s history in turning around poor form and their 2010 record against the top sides, they are not a team to jump off just yet.
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