The scratching of gun four-year-old Rock Sturdy has thrown the 2014 Epsom Handicap wide open.
It looks an extremely difficult race to pick the winner of, and I’m not going to attempt to through pure form analysis.
I’m merely going to provide some history and see if that can assist in some way.
Eight of the past twelve winners have been four-year-olds, with the other four winners being aged five. The most recent trend is the success of four-year-olds, who have won the past four.
The Bill Ritchie and Shannon Stakes have both provided two winners in that time, which is a trend away from the George Main Stakes being the most successful lead-up race (2006, 2008, 2009).
Eight of the past twelve winners have carried 54 kilograms or less, and the last four winners have carried 53 kilograms or less. Only one of the past 12 winners has not dropped in weight, with the average weight drop in that time being 2.5 kilograms.
Going back to 1997, Gai Waterhouse has provided six of the last fifteen winners but only one of the past five.
Barriers are of little consequence as is normally the case in Randwick mile races. Six of the past twelve have drawn barrier 10 or worse before winning. Oddly only one horse has drawn closer than barrier 5 to win in last twelve years, and that was Excellerator (1) twelve years ago.
Generally, winners of this race have boasted a half-decent winning strike rate (25 per cent or better) or have been exposed at Group 1 level in the past.
Summing up, we are looking for a four or five-year-old dropping in weight and preferably carrying 54kg or less. Preferably drawn five or wider, and coming out of the Bill Ritchie Handicap or Shannon Stakes. Being trained by Gai Waterhouse wouldn’t hurt.
Taking all that into account, Star Rolling, Pheidon and Woodbine look the most likely winners, and pushed to single one out it would have to be Woodbine.
He doesn’t come out of the right lead-up race but was only 1.8 lengths off Dissident during the Autumn in the Hobartville Stakes, which might prove he is classy enough. He is a superbly bred four-year-old (Dam Miss Finland), comes into this race in winning form, drops 6 kilograms from last start, and is trained by Gai Waterhouse.
Plus he has drawn a wide barrier, which isn’t a negative in this race. His $34 price may be though!
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