The Turnbull Stakes might be playing second fiddle to a host of Group 1 races in Sydney this weekend but we will learn plenty from the runners who will take part in Melbourne’s lone Group 1 race on Saturday.
Early indicators are pointing towards the big grey Puissance De Lune gaining that elusive Group 1 victory, but based on sectionals the horse is not even close to the level that he was before injury.
Sectionals indicate that while others around Puissance De Lune have improved, the grey trained by Darren Weir is struggling, and has actually lost one-and-a-half lengths compared to this time last year.
That’s not to say that he can’t win the Turnbull Stakes after being blocked for a run last year, but he just isn’t the same horse, which will make the task tougher.
As for Happy Trails, who won the race last year, he flashed home late to record a close second behind Foreteller in the Underwood Stakes last time out. He got the dream sectionals in this race last year so it will be a difficult race for him to win for the second consecutive year.
The Offer is a horse that really needs to start hitting his straps a month out from the Melbourne Cup.
While the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes run was eye-catching, the favourite for the Melbourne Cup was bitterly disappointing in the Underwood Stakes, finishing ninth out of ten runners. If we don’t start seeing something soon we could have a false favourite for the Cup.
Hawkspur will be Chris Waller’s only horse in this race and is perhaps the most intriguing runner; he struggled in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in autumn but won the Group 1 Queensland Derby last year.
There have been slight improvements this preparation but Hawkspur has finished fourth in the Group 1 George Main Stakes for two years running. He finished fifth in the Turnbull Stakes last year, so if the improvement is to be validated I would expect Hawkspur to place.
My last runner to look at will be Lucia Valentina, who was mighty impressive in the Group 2 Tramway Stakes before being pegged in the George Main Stakes. Trainer Kris Lees has already said the next two starts will determine the horse’s fate. But it’s likely that Lucia Valentina will be going to the Caulfield Cup after coming in really good on the weights, and the fact that four-year-old mares have been great performers in the past.
Third-up last year, Lucia Valentina won the Vinery Stakes over 2000m so that is the guide I am using to see how well she will go this weekend.
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