Even Blind Freddie couldn’t miss the fact that the Ken Keys trained Rich Enuff is something out of the ordinary, unearthed from obscurity this spring in an unfashionable stable (and breeding), to win three races in a row.
I can barely remember a horse of any era who has withstood the pressure he has to win every one of them. Not only that, he has also had the audacity to accelerate away from his rivals in the straight, when on every occasion the tempo of the race has suited a backmarker.
First up this campaign he bolted in running faster overall time than recent Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winner Trust In A Gust. Then down the straight at Flemington he went within a whisker of equalling the time of new star sprinter Chautauqua. It carried 1.5kg less and has since ‘monstered’ a classy field down the straight once more.
Third up Rich Enuff in the Guineas Prelude was less than half a second inferior in time to Trust In A Gust (Sir Rupert Clarke) who won a Group 1 race for older horses at the same distance. Had he not been ‘throttled down’ the last bit he would have pushed that time comparison even closer, and the fact he carried 57.5 compared to TIAG’s 52kg would suggest that had he taken on the older horses, he probably would have won that race.
In the Guineas Prelude he had to travel an extra 200m (some query) and concede weight to most of his rivals. The Tony Gollan trained Looks Like The Cat met him 2kg better for a narrow defeat at Flemington, and looked very hard to beat given the 1400m of that race. But he had his chance and Rich Enuff put the race beyond doubt at the top of the straight.
He held a 2.5L margin at the finish but was eased down over the last 100m and it should have been a bit more decisive than that.
In the Guineas he again has a question mark surrounding him regarding the extra 200m, but it would seem he is well and truly good enough to dispel those fears.
The Caulfield mile is hardly the toughest mile in Australia, and if the likes of Starspangledbanner and Chortle (1400m specialist) can win this race, then so can he.
He has drawn a bit awkwardly in barrier 10 but he should cross quite easily with his early speed. And in reality he may well face less pressure in this race than at his past three starts. The only thing that might bring him undone is missing the start, as that might see him posted wide throughout.
On what we have seen though it might not even matter, as in every win this Spring he has run the first half of his race faster than the second half. He makes his own luck with hard graft early, and can still accelerate when the chips are down, a rare commodity!
Historical data (past 13 years)
Seven have won their last race, and not one winner in that time has been beaten more than 3L at it’s previous run.
Eight have drawn inside barrier eight but the likes of Lonhro, Helmet and Whobegotyou drew wide and managed to win. All were pretty highly fancied in the market or had big reputations.
Seven came out of the Guineas Prelude to win- three winners, three placegetters and one has finished fourth.
Form Guide for what appear to be the main dangers
Lookslikethecat
The obvious Quinella horse and will garner quite a lot of public support I would imagine.
Why? Because of his name of course, he looks like the very popular former Group 1 performer Apache Cat. His racing pattern is somewhat different to that horse but with his barnstorming finish he is capable of gaining his own cult following.
He wasn’t totally genuine last start in the Guineas Prelude running about a bit, when he needed to sprint like a gazelle to match Rich Enuff, but perhaps the experience at Caulfield will augur well for his chances.
That was his first time around a left hand turn and many horses do improve dramatically at their second try in a reverse direction. The formline from Flemington where both he and the favourite put a big gap on Brazen Beau suggests that both have a bit on their Sydney rivals given BB bloused Golden Rose winner Hallowed Crown last week.
Barrier nine could present a problem for him if he can’t get cover but then again he doesn’t need to be cluttered up either. Gun jockey Damien Browne is likely to give him his winning chance
Almalad
Almalad has hit form at the right time and has had the benefit of run in Melbourne where he coasted him to win at Moonee Valley in the Stutt Stakes.
The time was weak though and his Golden Rose fourth might suggest that he is not quite up to beating the favourite pair. He has also drawn very wide in barrier 13 so looks to do it a bit tough in the run.
On the plus side he didn’t have a hard run in the Stutt so he comes here with a bit more energy to expend. And he is the only horse to have absolutely proven himself at the distance.
Shooting to Win
Shooting to Win just beat Almalad home in the Golden Rose and then strolled home in the Stan Fox over 1500m at Randwick. The addition of Blinkers three starts ago appears to have improve him and the mile looks right up his alley. But he has a bad habit of missing the start which could be fatal in this race from barrier eight.
It took me until today to realise this horse is a full brother to boom sprinter Deep Field (3/3 by big margins) who just might be the next big thing. I shudder to think how valuable his mother Listen Here is going to be in the near future. Only two foals and both are horses of this calibre!
Merion
Merion looks the dark horse of the race from the Mike Moroney stable. He ran well to be beaten a bit over 5L first up at Moonee Valley behind Rich Enuff, but worked hard to go around the field before the 600m mark.
That took it’s toll in a fast run race and not surprisingly he lost contact with the placegetters over the concluding stages. After that he managed to just win in photo finish at Flemington over 1400m getting that verdict over Chivalry.
He looks to be the only legitimate winning chance in the race that has drawn a decent barrier (4). That alone puts him in the reckoning and Moroney might have played the ace card for this race having not run him in the Guineas Prelude.
Fresh, and suited by the 1600m he has to be respected. The form around Chivalry might be three to four lengths shy of what is required, but he could be the horse that gets the right breaks on the day.
Chivalry
Chivalry would make it three from the last seven Caulfield Guineas for his sire Street Cry if he were to win. Last years winner Long John and stablemate (same colours) Whobegotyou in 2006 are the others of that sire to win this race.
He has a racing pattern similar to Whobegotyou but he doesn’t have anywhere near the aura that horse had coming into this race. It would seem he is 3-4 lengths short in class right now though his run at Moonee Valley in the Stutt Stakes was probably better than it appears.
The lack of pace there didn’t suit and he probably needs a solid tempo up front in this race to bring him into contention. A wide barrier does him no favours either and he looks the type who might need 2000m or more.
MoonOverManhattan
MoonOverManhattan got closest to Almalad last start in the Stutt and he was a touch unlucky in the straight. That was his first time in Blinkers so expect improvement again here from a decent barrier.
He can race up on or close to the pace so is likely to get the right run in the race. Definitely a place chance, but not sure if he can win if the favourites get ordinary luck.
Our Vespa
Blinkers go on this New Zealander and we still can’t really line him up with the rest of this field. That would have been possible had he not been run into the rail during the Prelude in the straight at a critical time. To the naked eye, he wasn’t going anywhere near as well as Rich Enuff at the time but that’s not to say he couldn’t have run a place at least.
No lead from New Zealand form makes it hard to assess him but he might try to lead here which could prove a nuisance to the favourite.
Providing Rich Enuff performs to the same level he has so far this spring, it is going to take a very good horse to beat him.
There is no real reason to doubt his chances and it would be a fairytale story if he can present his trainer with a Maiden Group 1 win. Given his last three victories there has never been a more deserving candidate.
1. Rich Enuff
2. Lookslikethecat
3. Merion
4. Shooting To Win
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