The Cox Plate definitely isn’t the easiest race in Australia to pick from a historical angle, and it seems to be getting more unpredictable every year.

The fact the race is going to be staged as the 16th race on this track within 24 hours isn’t going to help either.

That was the case last year and it affected the outcome. It was a very messy race from memory, and the leader stayed out of trouble and won despite having never won a race before.

This madness just has to stop. This is our showcase weight-for-age race and it should be run on an ideal racing surface. If there is any heavy rain on Friday or Saturday it could be hugely detrimental to the result, not to mention the safety of horse and rider.

With that said we can only deal with what we are given and here is my take on the last 20 years of the event, and some relative comments on the runners in this year’s race.

Age
The race is definitely trending to younger age horses, with the last five runnings going to either a three-year-old (2) or a four-year-old (3).

Over a 20-year period we have had 6 four-year-old winners, 6 six-year-olds, 4 three-year-olds, 3 five-year-olds, and 1 nine-year-old. Interestingly the 3 five-year-old winners have been out-and-out champions – Sunline, Northerly and Might And Power!

Sex
Of the male winners nine have been geldings, and six have been either a colt or entire, but the latter has produced four of the last five winners.

The mares are of great interest with five winners in the last 20 years. Only champion mares Makybe Diva and Sunline (second win) have been aged over four, and even more pertinent is that all the mares that have won came off a 21-day break.

Best lead-up race
Only going back 13 years with this but it is quite evenly spread between the Caulfield Stakes (four), Caulfield Cup (two), Caulfield Guineas (two), Turnbull Stakes (two), Champion Stakes (one), Toorak (one), Epsom (one).

Barrier draw
Going back to 2002, it is striking that we have 10 winners that drew in barriers 3-7. Nothing has won in that period from barriers 1-2 and only Shamus Award (barrier 3), who led last year, drew better than barrier 4 in that time.

Only Ocean Park in 2012 (9) and Pinker Pinker in 2011 have won from wider than barrier 7, and the latter got an A1 ride from Craig Williams who found the rail early. That isn’t the norm!

Field position
There seems to be a myth perpetuated that this race is an on-pacer’s paradise. Hopefully that isn’t the case again after 16 races have been run beforehand, but the record books don’t really support the theory anyway. 12 of the last 20 winners have won on the pace or from just behind the pace, while 8 of 20 have come from a midfield or further back position.

Breeding
Seven of the last nineteen winners have Zabeel/Sir Tristram blood going back no more three generations. Three of the last ten winners (Shamus Award, Pinker Pinker and Savabeel) have a mother sired by Success Express, and two of the last seven winners (Shamus Award and Palos Verdes) have had a link to Snippets from the sire of El Segundo (2006) and the damsire of Shamus Award.

Three-year-olds
As stated, three-year-olds have won four of the past twenty runnings. Three have come via the Caulfield Guineas but none had won that race. Two of those (Octagonal and Shamus Award) finished third in that race. The other finished fifth (So You Think) but importantly all three ran on well, indicating that a race at 2000m might suit.

Another three-year-old named Viscount ran dismally in the Caulfield Guineas yet very nearly knocked off two champion gallopers in 2000 (Northerly and Sunline). All Too Hard won the Caulfield Guineas in 2012, and beat all bar Ocean Park in the Cox Plate when runner up that year, so it is a relevant race to scrutinise.

The other three-year-old to salute in 2004 (Savabeel) won the Champion Stakes at Randwick over 2000m, but very few winners of that race (or place getters) have gone on to contest this race.

Average winning odds
Give or take 50 cents, I have it at $10.50 over a 20-year period.

Given it is a WFA race and not a handicap, those odds are higher than they probably should be, which tells you more a bit about how difficult this is to predict.

Summing up, ideally we would be looking for a horse aged three, four or six, and being a colt or entire wouldn’t hurt. Drawing barriers 3-7 would be very helpful and if a mare were to win a 21-day break would be more than preferable. Some Sir Tristram/Zabeel influence in a pedigree might also be significant.

Runners and comments below.

Sacred Falls
Being an entire is a bonus given recent history, but his age of five doesn’t inspire greatly given he has to be match the feats of Northerly, Sunline and Might And Power to win. Having said that he won’t need to be that good in all reality. Barrier 9 is a bit awkward but there should be a better than average tempo to enable Zac Purton to find some cover.

Fawkner
Has Zabeel influence through his sire reset, who also produced 2011 winner Pinker Pinker. Being a seven-year-old doesn’t augur well, but his barrier 4 certainly does. His racing pattern is ideal as he could sit on the pace, just off the pace or race midfield. No horse that has contested the Makybe Diva (he ran second) has won this race since 1989 (Almaarad), but his Caulfield Stakes win might negate that.

Side Glance
Ran quite well in this race last year first-up and then won the Mackinnon at Flemington second-up. Given he is second-up here this year, off a decent run first-up, he could be a hope but his age of eight isn’t encouraging. Conversely barrier 7 is a bonus for his chances.

Happy Trails
Another at the less than ideal age of seven, but he has drawn okay in barrier 2, and he did run very well here last year when only just beaten. Maybe last year was his best chance when in slightly better form but you can’t write him off.

Foreteller
Was the eye-catching run in this last year and did win the Underwood stakes en route this year. Strangely the winner of that race hasn’t got a great history in regards to this race, and his last run was pretty disappointing in the Caulfield Stakes. Eight years of age now so hopefully his best isn’t behind him. Barrier 1 is probably not the best for him given he will get well back in the race.

The Cleaner
Seven years of age and coming off a month break, which would really set a precedent. He does like this track so has to be respected but barrier 14 might be a problem if he gets taken on up-front in the early stages. If he is in front on a deteriorating track (quite likely) around the turn, we could be witnessing one of the most popular wins on a racetrack ever. Historically it doesn’t seem likely though.

Guest of Honour
A good age at six, but no spring import has ever won the race. He has an awkward barrier in 10 and is yet to win beyond 1750m.

Criterion
Might well be the top candidate here given he is a four-year-old entire and jumps from a good barrier in 6. He has been steadily improving coming into this and should be peaking on the day. Interesting that he won the AJC Derby last Autumn, and there was no attempt to go to the Caulfield or Melbourne Cups. This has been his sole aim this spring and he looks a great chance with big race jockey James Mcdonald taking the reins.

Silent Achiever
A hope here given she is a mare coming in off a 21-day break. She is down on form from her efforts in the Autumn but Moonee Valley is the scene of her only triumph in Melbourne, and it was on this day in the Crystal Mile.

Nash Rawiller goes back on her for the first time since the Autumn, which is a decided bonus if you listen to her trainer Roger James. She is the same age as Makybe Diva the year she saluted and her early form in New Zealand included a win over Ocean Park, who went on to win this race at age four.

Barrier 11 is not what you wanted to see, but at least that is the same barrier that was drawn by the last mare to win this (Pinker Pinker). She could slot into a good position early off an expected fast pace early. Also has Sir Tristram breeding on her dam’s side so has quite a bit in her favour history-wise.

Royal Descent
A live chance in the race given she too is a mare coming off a 21-day break. And even better that she comes direct from the Epsom, which has provided three winning mares since 1997 (Dane Ripper, Sunline, Pinker Pinker).

She has drawn barrier 3 and has the services of Glen Boss, the most winningest jockey of recent times (three of last nine).

She hasn’t won for 13 starts now but wasn’t far off Fawkner in last year’s Caulfield Cup on unsuitable going (too hard). She meets him 1kg better for a 1.5L defeat in that race, and she should relish the extra cushion in the track here. She has some Sir Tristram breeding on her dam’s side and is by Redoutes Choice, the Grandfather of last year’s winner Shamus Award.

Adelaide
An inexperienced Northern Hemisphere three-year-old but listed as a four-year-old entire here. He is the hardest horse to line up, but coming back 400m hasn’t been a bad precedent for the older horses coming out of the Caulfield Cup. Barrier 13 might leave him in no man’s land and he doesn’t look the type of horse that will be suit this track.

Almalad
Would be the first three-year-old gelding to ever win this race and it would seem he has the job ahead after a poor effort in the Caulfield Guineas. He hasn’t drawn too badly in barrier 8 though, and could put lie to the last run just as Viscount did in 2000. Pretty sure Viscount won the George Main stakes against the older horses though, so this horse has a lot more to prove.

Sweynesse
The second of the three-year-olds and is to be ridden by last year’s winning jockey Chad Schofield, who incidentally won on a three-year-old last year. But he has to jump from a poor barrier in 12 and might lack the tactical speed necessary to overcome it. He comes off a tiring third in the Spring Champion Stakes last start, which was a bit mystifying given he looked certain to run it out strong. A placing there is not a strong historical guide. His sire Lonhro has Zabeel/Sir Tristram bloodlines and was highly fancied to win this race twice as a racehorse, but failed badly on both occasions.

Wandjina
By far the best of the three-year-olds on paper, yet hasn’t had quite the reputation of the other two entries until his last run. That was a great historical precedent for this race in running on quite well for third, and it’s amazing that he has the same sire (Snitzel) as last year’s three-year-old winner Shamus Award, who also ran well for third in that race.

Shamus Award had nothing in his breeding to suggest he could win at 2000m, and neither does this horse, but Snitzel has done it once so why not again? He has drawn a fabulous barrier in 5 and if he manages to stay in touch early (a necessity for a three-year-old), we could very well see history repeat.

In conclusion, history leads me to four leading chances, but it’s hard to pick a winner out of that group. I would have them in this order, bearing in mind I would give the mares an even better chance if they were in the four-year-old age group.

1. Criterion
2. Wandjina
3. Silent Achiever
4. Royal Descent