It won’t be vintage, but a crack bunch of sprinters, headlined by Deep Field and Lankan Rupee, will do battle for Group l glory in the $500,000 Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) this Saturday at Flemington.
The race is to be run and won at 4.35pm Melbourne time as the seventh race on the nine-event card.
From what I have seen at the jump outs, I am going with Deep Field. His efforts in jump outs here have been outstanding, in particular his effort last Friday when he led all the way down the straight and won by a space, running blistering time under triple wraps from Dwayne Dunn.
The big positive was that he handled the course beautifully compared to Cup Week when he looked lost despite winning. He has to take this step to make sure he is a world class sprinter, and I am very confident he can.
Lankan Rupee looks the obvious threat. I haven’t been as bullish as some about the way he has come back. I thought his jump outs and trials were good without being great, but gee he looked awesome in a gallop last weekend at Caulfield. That little piece of work should clean him out beautifully for this, and he is a Group l winner on the track.
Brazen Beau probably hasn’t looked as good as the two above in trials and jump outs, but he has recent Group l winning form over this course thanks to a stunning win in the Coolmore Stud. He is drawn to get a gun sit off Fab Fevola, so he is a definite threat for mine purely because he’ll get the right run.
Selections
Deep Field (5) on top, to beat Lankan Rupee (1), Brazen Beau (6) and Fab Fevola (3).
Some of the best three year old fillies in Melbourne will do battle in race three, the $150,000 Group 3 The Vanity (1400m), due to run at 2.07pm Melbourne time. I was very impressed by the win of Wawail first up down the straight. She didn’t look comfortable at all but her class was just far too good for her rivals and she won with a fair bit of ease on the line. She just got home over this distance during the Spring, but she looks to be a far better filly now, plus she has the fitness edge on her main rivals.
The Oaks winner Set Square returns. Recent history tells you that horses that run well in the Oaks tend to run very well in The Vanity. The 1400 metres is short of her best, but she is clearly the class horse in the field and worked to the line pretty well in her latest jump out behind Nordic Empire, who has been one of the form jump out and trial horses this Autumn and should win on Friday night at the Valley. Set Square should be hard to beat.
Prepared to forgive Maastricht for her first up failure at Canterbury behind Meursault, who will go around as a leading contender in the Hobartville. Maastricht just got too far back in a slowly run race, plus I don’t think the tight turning Canterbury track suited her. She is much better than that and returns to Melbourne, where she was very impressive in the Spring.
Selections
Going for Wawail (2), ahead of Set Square (1) Maastricht (4) and Clover Lane (6).
The other feature race is for the three-year-old colts and geldings in the first leg of the quaddie, the $150,000 Group 3 CS Hayes Stakes (1400m), named in honour of one of the all-time great trainers.
Stratum Star on top for me. He has that Trust In A Gust feel about him. He isn’t the best three-year-old going around, but gee he has to be right up there in terms of toughness. He was very good first up at Sandown when second to Profit Share, beaten by two lengths. His overall record is very good and the last time he ran here was during Cup Week with a narrow second to Kermadec in the Carbine Club. Excellent form for this and should take some beating.
Merion ran third to Profit Share at Sandown and his run was probably the best of the beaten brigade considering he pulled his head off outside the speed yet stuck on very well for third. He won second up over this track and distance during the Spring and is unbeaten at Flemington. Looks beautifully placed here.
Wandjina is the interesting runner here for Gai Waterhouse. He hasn’t raced since finishing a brave 10th in the Cox Plate to Adelaide after doing a mountain of work on speed. His recent jump outs have been encouraging and he does have the class factor on his side. Knockout hope at odds.
Selections
Stratum Star (2) on top despite the wide gate, ahead of Merion (4), Wandjina (8) and Chivalry (3).
In other races on the program
. Take Pride looks silly overs in the Talindert
. Turnitaround looks well placed in Race 2
. Tuscan Sling looks well above average and should take some beating
. Saluter trialled like a star recently and looks a great bet for his debut run under the care of the Freedmans
. Hard Stride looked pretty sharp in a recent jump out and can bounce back a winner
. Berrimilla, with better luck, will be hard to beat in the last
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