The Autumn Carnival in Melbourne heads to Flemington for the next two weeks, starting off this weekend with Australian Guineas Day.
The $500,000 Group 1 mile feature, due to go at 4.30pm Melbourne time, has attracted a crack bunch of three-year-olds, highlighted by Adelaide youngster Alpine Eagle, who is on the quick back-up after a remarkable win last week in the Autumn Classic (1800m), and will now get the services of champion hoop Douglas Whyte.
He is a chance, but Kermadec is one of the better bets on the program. His two runs in Sydney have been outstanding, starting off with a fourth to Scissor Kick in the Eskimo Prince (1200m) before rattling home late to run a close third in the Hobartville Stakes (1400m).
The switch to Melbourne, in particular Flemington, looks perfect. He was an impressive winner of the Carbine Club on Derby Day over this track/distance, and he looks to have improved lengths from that.
Finally, Nash Rawiller coming over from Hong Kong to ride is a really positive lead.
Wandjina is the obvious threat. On face value, he looked to travel keenly in the CS Hayes (1400m), but jockey Damien Oliver said afterwards he wasn’t pulling as hard as it seemed. Either way, it was a big effort to win given that runner-up Disposition clearly headed him in the straight, but the Caulfield Guineas place-getter lifted to win. That’s the key and main form reference to this race from a Melbourne perspective. Nothing that finished behind Wandjina will turn the tables here, so he does look one of the hardest to beat.
He might not be the best horse going around, but Rommel is a very tough customer who just knows where the post, and that was evident last week with his win in the Zeditave (1200m), taking forever to wind up, but lunging hard at Galaxy Pegasus for the win.
Up to 1600 metres suits, and I love horses that are in form and go on the seven-day back up.
Selections
Kermadec (9) clearly on top, ahead of Wandjina (7), Rommel (1) and Alpine Eagle (10).
40 minutes earlier, Politeness should bolt in and get another Stakes triumph in the $150,000 Group 3 Tressady Stakes (1400m). She was enormous when resuming at Caulfield in the Bellmaine, running third to Tycoon Tara after sitting wide with no cover throughout.
Hoping she can get cover from the draw, because on facts and figures, and on the first-up run, she just looks the one, plus the form has been franked with Tycoon Tara winning against last Saturday.
Girl In Flight is a classy mare resuming after a strong Spring, which ended with a narrow second to Suavito in the Matriarch Stakes (2000m) on Stakes Day. That form has seen the winner go on to win a Group 1 last weekend, and Girl In Flight looked very sharp in a recent barrier trial at Cranbourne behind Lord Of The Sky. Races very well fresh and gets in pretty well at the weights considering her record.
Nadeem Lass comes back to Melbourne after a two-run stint during the Tassie Carnival. She had absolutely no luck two back at Hobart, then she ran in the Vamos Stakes (1400m) and ran a close up third to Vibrant Rouge and Miss Middleton. Her record of two from 30 is horrendous, but she is very honest and won’t be too far away.
Selections
I’ll be surprised if Politeness (1) doesn’t win. She is clearly on top, ahead of Girl In Flight (4), Nadeem Lass (7) and Madam Gangster (8).
The other Group race on the card is the $150,000 Group 3 Tab Rewards Stakes (1400m), due to go at 2.30pm Melbourne time.
There is a great bet here at odds in the shape of Aeronautical. His run wasn’t too bad at all in the CF Orr Stakes (1400m) behind Dissident, when beaten just under six lengths. Weight-for-age at Group 1 level isn’t his go, so the drop back to this level looks perfect. He should get the lovely sit off Hard Stride and Decircles, and prove hard to hold out, especially with Douglas Whyte in the saddle.
Akavoroun went enormous first-up here over 1200m when fourth to Hard Stride, making up significant ground late. He is unbeaten second-up, draws to get the gun run and has abundance of class on his side. He actually looks a great price at around the $3 mark. I was expecting shorter.
Tougher Than Ever could well represent Dairy Farmers alongside stablemate Fulgur, but all of his form has been in Sydney. He has been trained in Melbourne this time in, and he looked pretty sharp in a recent jump out here, so a forward showing first up would not surprise me.
Selections
Aeronautical (2) on top at some value, over Akavoroun (3), Tougher Than Ever (6) and Gracious Prospect (7).
In other races on the program:
. Heatherly looks a good thing in the opener off the back of an impressive jump out.
. Missy Longstocking appears beautifully placed in the second.
. Turfane to make back-to-back wins in the Saintly Handicap.
. Tuscan Fire gets his chance to win another race in the Roy Higgins.
. General Truce looks great value in the Bob Hoysted off the back of a lovely trial effort behind Lankan Rupee.
. Bec Said No Credit in the last is the best bet on the program.
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