This race certainly earns its title as time honoured, given it was first staged at Randwick racecourse in 1866.
Its spring equivalent the Epsom Handicap, run at the same venue and distance, is actually one year older. Both provide a great spectacle, with capacity fields (potentially 20 runners maximum), run at a spacious track, which tends to give every horse a chance.
More often than not wide barriers are actually more of a benefit than a hindrance, and backmarkers quite often prevail as a result of the testing uphill rise in the long Randwick straight.
Punters almost always get value odds on their selection, given the size of the field, and the quality on display. It also pays to keep a close watch on the Easter in Sydney too. It rains – a lot. That has been the case in three of the past seven runnings, so basing your form analysis around wet track runners can prove fruitful.
Below are the last 12 winners of the race with age, gender, barrier, weight carried and starting price.
• 2014 Sacred Falls 4h (13) 56.5kg $10
• 2013 Sacred Falls 3c (4) 53kg $21
• 2012 More Joyous 5m (10) 57.5kg $3.75
• 2011 Sacred Choice 5m (14) 52kg $8
• 2010 Rangirangdoo 5g (10) 55.5kg $6
• 2009 Vision and Power 6g (12) 52kg $11
• 2008 Triple Honour 3g (6) 51kg $7.50
• 2007 Haradsun 4h (1) 53kg $4.25
• 2006 Racing to Win 3g (12) $4.50
• 2005 Patezza 5g (16) 54.5kg $21
• 2004 Private Steer 4m (13) 53kg $4
• 2003 Grand Armee 3g (5) 51.5kg $13
Pertinent statistics with points weighting are collated in the graph below.
A) 12 from 12 had their previous start at Rosehill (3 points). Eight of those were in either the George Ryder (1500m), or the Ranvet Stakes (2000m), both of which are weight for age races (+2 points = five points maximum)
B) Chris Waller has trained four of the past seven winners, and Gai Waterhouse seven of the past 21 winners. Combined, they have produced 11 of the past 21 winners (52%) of the race (2 points)
C) 11 from 12 winners have dropped 2.5kg or more (2 points). This is not a surprising statistic, given most horses have carried higher weights in WFA races at their previous start, and the three year old horses drop weight too, given they are meeting older horses at Group 1 level in a handicap.
The average winning weight drop is 4kg during this period, so add an extra point to any horse who does (3 points maximum).
D) 10 from 12 finished in the first four placings last start (3 points).
E) 8 from 12 have carried 53kg or less, and 22 of the last 35 (63 per cent) winners also had that attribute (3 points).
F) 11-12 have been aged between three and five (3 points).
G) 8/12 drew barrier 10 or wider (2 points).
For interests sake the Average winning price over this period is $9.66
| Horse | A | B | C | D | E | F | G | Total |
| 1. Sacred Falls | 5 | 2 | 3 | 10 | ||||
| 2. Happy Trails | 2 | 3 | 5 | |||||
| 3. World Ace | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | ||||
| 4. Real Impact | 5 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | |||
| 5. Moriarty | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10 | |||
| 6. Royal Descent | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | |
| 7. Ninth Legion | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | ||
| 8. Puccini | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 14 | ||
| 9. Cosmic Endeavour | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | |
| 10. Hallowed Crown | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17 | |
| 11. Hooked | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | ||
| 12. It’s Somewhat | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14 | |||
| 13. Diamond Drille | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 14. Pornichet | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 15. Destiny’s Kiss | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9 | ||||
| 16. Arabian Gold | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |||
| 17. Leebaz | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | ||
| 18. Rudy | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |||
| 19. Suavito | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | |||
| 20. Plucky Belle | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 | |||
| 21. Sweynesse | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | ||
| 22. Kermadec | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| 23. Aomen | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |||
| 24. Malavio | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
Conclusion
The Chris Waller-trained three-year-old Kermadec ticks every box. He has just about everything going for him, excepting one very important thing – he is unlikely to gain a start, being the second emergency runner.
He needs two horses above him in this field to be scratched. It will be a great shame if he does miss out, because he is weighted to win.
The only negative for him might be a very wet track, which he is yet to experience.
Equal second picks are the Gai Waterhouse pairing of Diamond Drille and Pornichet. The former is a very consistent mare who might just lack the class to win this. The latter though is a former French horse who scored a very easy win last week over 2000m, a distance at which many felt he would struggle.
He looks very hard to beat in this race (coming back to 1600m), providing he copes with the short seven days between runs, and the probability of a very wet track.
Three-year-old favourite Hallowed Crown is equal next best with two other mares, the Gai Waterhouse-trained Cosmic Endeavour, and Chris Waller trained Royal Descent. The latter came within a whisker of beating Sacred Falls in this race last year on a heavy track.
Coincidentally she carried the same weight and came from the exact same barrier (scratchings excepted). She also finished runner up in the Epsom here in the Spring.
She really does love this track, where she scored an emphatic win in the AJC Oaks as a three-year-old. Cosmic Endeavour needs a major turnaround in form off her last start run in the George Ryder.
There she failed to beat a runner home. If she was to win, it wouldn’t be the first time Gai Waterhouse has managed to perform a similar miracle.
Have you ever tried your skills in a Racing daily fantasy competition? Put your best picks to the test for one day and see if you can scoop the pot with Draftstars. Looking for great odds on racing and sport? PlayUp is your best bet. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
Without a Fight completed the rare Caulfield Cup-Melbourne Cup double on Tuesday as star jockey Mark Zahra went back-to-back in the big one after…
The race that stops the nation is upon us again. Every horse in the Melbourne Cup has reasons they can win, and reasons they…
Those who want to have a really big collect on Australia’s greatest race, without risking too much, have to look at the exotic bets.
While most of the attention is on Ciaron Maher and David Eustace's Gold Trip, there's no reason why stablemate Future History cannot upstage him.
Champion jockey Damien Oliver is quietly confident his Melbourne Cup mount Alenquer will be passed fit to give him a farewell ride in the…
Melbourne Cup day is here again, and it’s never anything less than exciting. The Cup itself will of course be full of drama and…
