Purely looking at recent historical trends is becoming a very powerful analytical tool in selecting the next winner of the Melbourne Cup.

There are some exceptionally pertinent factors to consider, and whilst I’m only going back to the new millennium (year 2000), they do give us an idea of what is required to win this race in the modern era.

A little of this preview is a repeat of the article I wrote last year (with updates).

It produced three of the top four placings, with third selection Protectionist victorious in emphatic fashion!

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Below is a review of the factor consistent with winning this race over the past fifteen years.

Age and Sex

This is the most pertinent statistic in recent history. The last seven winners have been Stallions (a horse that hasn’t been gelded), as have eight of the last nine. Prior to that we only had five Stallion winners.

From 2000 to 2005 no Stallion won the cup, and in fact you have to go back to 1994 to find the last winner before that, which was the former import Jeune. So if the Stallion factor isn’t a current trend then I don’t know what is!

Added to that statsitic is that the last five Stallion winners have been either five or six years of age, and eight of the last 15 winners have in fact been six year olds of any gender. Four five-year-olds (two Stallions), two four-year-olds, and one seven-year-old (Makybe Diva’s third win) complete the 15 year picture back to the year 2000.

Weights

The most telling statistic is that 11 of the past 15 winners have dropped in weight before winning the Cup. Ten of those have dropped 2.5kg or more in weight, which computes to an average (winning) drop in weight of approximately 3.5kg.

No horse has carried over 58kg to win in the 15-year period, and only one has carried more than 56.5kg. That was the champion mare Makybe Diva in 2005, but she had already won the race twice. You have to go back a long way to find the last one that did carry a bigger impost than her. It was Think Big in 1975 who shouldered 58.5kg.

Form

12 of the past 15 winners finished in the first four placings at their prior start, with six of those having won penultimately.

The three that haven’t done so in that period, had all finished well back in a major lead up race at 2000m at Weight For Age level (two in the Cox Plate and one from Mackinnon Stakes), dropping significantly in weight.

Imported Horses

Only one spring import has managed to win the race without having a run here, and that was Vintage Crop in 1993. Five of the last 15 import winners have run here prior to the race, with three of those having been successful in the Geelong Cup. All five raced over 2400m at their previous start.

Red Cadeaux came within a whisker of breaking that hoodoo in 2011 and has been runner up on two of three occasions since. One or two others in the Goldolphin camp have also run good placings without a run here.

No Spring import (even going back to Vintage Crop) has won this 3200m race without having won or placed at 3000m and beyond, either in Europe or Japan.

No English trained horse has ever won the race, although a few have placed and Red Cadeaux was unlucky to lose by a bob of the head to Dunaden.

The only Naturalised (for want of a better term) imports to win the Cup had at least raced in this country since the Autumn of the same year (Jeune won the CF Orr Stakes and Queen Elizabeth in Autumn).

Two of the last three winners of the Cup (Green Moon and Fiorente) were former imports now trained in Australia.

Australasian Horses

Conversely of the eight ‘local’ winners in the past 15 years, only Makybe Diva had won beyond 2500m prior to their Melbourne Cup win.

Our horses don’t appear to require the same stamina in their pedigree as the Internationals, but it’s probably wise to note that four of those eight winners (Makybe Diva three times and Shocking) had overseas breeding on both the Sire and Dam side. Makybe Diva was actually foaled in England and was shipped to Australia before having raced.

Flemington

Flemington is largely a ‘horses for courses’ track, and while all the International runners have won without a run here, only one Australasian has not in Ethereal out of the eight local winners (past 15 years). It’s best to see at least a win or a placing at Flemington if you fancy a local.

Wet Tracks

The last genuine wet track we had in the Cup was back in 2010 and and won by Americain. Prior to that it was Jeune in 1995. He completed a trio of wins on wet surfaces. Subzero in 1994 won on a very wet track and the Irish horse Vintage Crop won on a bog in 1993. Only four wet tracks since 1976 so we are well and truly due. Three of the aforementioned winners were sired by a British horse whilst Vintage Crop was out of a US stallion but did most of his racing in Great Britain. Americain was also sired by a US Stallion Three have been Entires, and two were geldings.

No significant rain has fallen or is predicted – dry for the cup!

Breeding

It would be one of the last places anybody would look in regard to finding a winner of the great race, but some decent research seems to indicate otherwise. Half of the winners since 2000 have been sired by a former Irish racehorse, and six have been by a US raced or born Dam (mother). The last two winners have been sired by the German sire Monsun in combination with an Irish bred mare.

Champion New Zealand (Australian raced) sire Zabeel has produced three of the last eighteen winners but none since 2007 (Efficient).

No Australian-based sire has fathered a winner since Rogan Josh in 1999, and all of the other winning Dams have either been New Zealand bred (4) or European bred (France 2, GB 1, Ireland 2). Ideally the best bred candidate would be a horse sired by an Irish Stallion, out of a US, New Zealand or Irish bred Mother.

Lead up race

The best in recent times is evenly divided between the Cox Plate (4), Caulfield Cup (4) and Geelong Cup (3) but from the Saturday prior the Lexus has also provided (2), as has the Mackinnon (1). Recent trends have definitely seen the Cox Plate prominent (three of last seven) and the Geelong Cup (three of last 12).

The Caulfield Cup hasn’t produced a winner since 2006, but with an increase in prizemoney over the past two years there is an expectation that the major players in that race will start to exert more influence.

A 3000m race in France known as the Prix Kergorlay has produced three of the last five winners, but all had one run here in preparation for this race.

Barrier

Is probably the least significant of the historical data I’ve assessed, but it’s worth noting that no horse in this 15-year period has won drawn inside barrier 3, and only two have won outside of barrier 14. Both those winners from outside barriers carried very low weights (Brew and Shocking).

Middle barriers are the winningest ones over a long period of time, which tends to suggest it is best to avoid early interference nearer the rail early, or conversely not have to cover too much extra ground out wide throughout the race.

Summing up these are the recent historical precedents that should help us to find the winner this year;

1. Be aged four to six and preferably be a Stallion;
2. Dropping in weight preferably 2.5kg or more;
3. Carrying less than 58kg and preferably less than 57kg;
4. Imports not trained in Australia need to have won or placed in a race at 3000m or beyond;
5. Locals would preferably have overseas breeding on both sides of their immediate pedigree (or a son or daughter of Zabeel), and form at Flemington is advantageous;
6. Any horse by the sire Monsun would have to earn credit;
7. An imported runner should have had one at least one run in this country;
8. Be preferably drawn between barriers three and fourteen;
9. Had it’s last run in either the Cox Plate, Geelong Cup, Caulfield Cup or Lexus Stakes;
10. Finished in the first 4 placings last start or run unplaced in a 2000m Weight For Age race last start.

Analysis with a historical rating out of 10

1. Snow Sky – Has a few too many negatives here. They are his weight of 58kg, the fact he didn’t run in the first four last start, he is yet to place at 3000m or above, and has drawn a bit wider than ideal. He does have a win at 2800m and a placing,but he doesn’t drop in weight from his last start. The positive is he has had a run here which was quite a good one in the Caulfield Cup. Ryan Moore aboard is also a bonus, but I can only give him a low rating in regard to historical precedents. 3/10

2. Criterion is a world class horse who is on home soil and comes off a placing at the highest possible level in a Cox Plate at Weight For Age level. Being a five year old stallion is hugely significant and he has drawn an ideal barrier which should help him run out a strong two miles. The historical negatives are his weight of 57.5 kg and he only drops 1.5kg off his previous start. He hasn’t been past 2000m this distance since his win in the ATC Derby last April at 2400m, and a look at that field now doesn’t suggest he beat a strong field of stayers. Class will take him a long way. 6/10

3. Fame Game is going to start a firm favourite and he looks a strong historical selection. For starters he is a six year old stallion, and an import that has had a run here in a high level race. He profiles very similarly to the Japanese 2006 winner Delta Blues off a good run in the Caulfield Cup, and carries the same weight as he did in the Caulfield Cup. He has drawn a similar middle barrier (12 opposed to 10), has very similar Japanese form, and is the same age at the same time. He didn’t finish anywhere near as close to the winner as Delta Blues did in the Caulfield Cup though, and he didn’t finish in the top four placings, so perhaps his current odds are far too short. Unlike Delta Blues he doesn’t have the ability to race close to the pace either so he will need some luck from a probably midfield or worse position. 7/10

4. Our Ivanhowe is a former German horse now in the hands of Lee and Anthony Freedman. He profiles quite well historically given his six year old stallion status, and his last start placing in the Caulfield Cup. He was given one run in the Autumn here so has had ample time to acclimatize. And it does seem he is peaking at the right time. I guess you could almost consider him a local now, so he doesn’t need to have won or placed at the required (import) 3000m distance. The negatives are that he doesn’t drop in weight off his last run, and he has drawn very wide in barrier 22. He looks a very good chance though at value odds if he does overcome the draw- 6.5/10

5. Big Orange doesn’t get too many historical pluses. He is a five year old British Gelding who is yet to run here, and he has drawn very wide. The postitives are he has won at 3200m, and he does drop in weight 3kg off his last start failure. Nicely named out of a sire called Duke Of Marmalade which unfortunately doesn’t earn him any extra credit. 3/10

6. Hartnell comes off a very nice run in the Cox Plate which probably proves he has the class to run well. He is a Gelding though and has drawn a bit wider than preferred in barrier 17. He failed badly in the Sydney Cup last Autumn when he was in stellar form, but he won’t be ridden as aggressively in this. He does boast a win at 3200m in England, so his last two mile run should be looked upon as an aberration.Although he didn’t run top four last start he does drop a handy 3.5kg into this, and a Cox Plate unplaced run is often a great guide to this race. Worth consideration. 6.5/10

7. Hokko Brave is the second of the Japanese Imports who also ran in the Caulfield Cup. As is the case with nearly all Japanese horses he too is a stallion, but at eight years old is not the ideal Melbourne Cup age. His run at Caulfield wasn’t as impressive as that of his counterpart Fame Game, and his form at home is slightly inferior to that horse. A very wide barrier won’t help his cause, and he doesn’t drop weight off his last run. Hard to get too keen. 3/10

8. Max Dynamite doesn’t scream out winner to me either given he is a British five year old Gelding. The first nine starts of his career were in France though until he changed stables to Willie Mullins who has brought a couple of horses here in the past, including Simenon to run a good fourth in this race. He profiles a little like Vintage Crop (the 1991 winner) who successfully mixed flat and hurdle racing. His last start win at 3200m offers some encouragement, as does barrier 2. Not having run here doesn’t inspire and he doesn’t look the typical type of import that does win the race, unless we get a wet track. Dropping 3.5kg from last start is a bonus, and interestingly his mother is a daughter of Monsun the sire of the last two Melbourne Cup winners. 5/10

9. Red Cadeaux – Age does not weary him according to those that matter, and he is back for a fifth tilt at 10 years of age -what a warrior! He carries 2kg less than he did last year when a gallant runner up for the third occasion, and this is the lowest weight he has carried since his first attempt. Interestingly he might not have had a run here in the Spring this year, but he did campaign here in the Autumn. Perfectly drawn and you know he has an affinity for Flemington which is not the case for a lot of the imports. He handles all track conditions so the only real negative is his age, and perhaps some indifferent form coming in. A 4.5kg weight drop off his last start won’t hurt. 7/10

10. Trip To Paris is a stablemate of Red Cadeaux who once again showed Ed Dunlop’s ability to travel his horses to overseas destinations, with an excellent second in the recent Caufeld Cup. He is a five year old gelding who has won at 3200m, and now has the advantage of a run here, which proves he can handle the drier tracks we normally offer up. Barrier 14 is okay for him, but a drop in weight would have been preferable in regard to winning this race. Very hard to knock him though. 6.5/10

11. Who Shot TheBarman has the Flemington form off his third last year in this race, and he is certainly capable at the distance having won an Auckland Cup and producing a second placed finish in the Sydney Cup this Autumn. He has drawn perfectly but doesn’t drop in weight off his last start good effort in the Caulfied Cup. Again though he didn’t finish in the first four placings in that race. Not sure he can win but he looks to be going as well as last year and another placing is certainly on the cards. 5.5/10

12. Sky Hunter is a British trained six year old gelding who hasn’t had a run here, so on that score I can’t give possibly give him a high historical rating. The positives are he does have a good barrier and he does drop 7kg off his last start second. He hasn’t raced past 2400m which is another historical negative for an import. 3/10

13. The Offer is lucky number 13 starting from barrier 13. He has had 13 starts on dry tracks for three wins too. Enough of that nonsense though – what is his historical rating? He is a seven year old Australian trained Gelding which is not so good. He is a 3200m winner, and he comes off a last start win in an albeit obscure lead up race. The barrier is okay and a 5kg weight drop, and the services of Damien Oliver won’t hurt. He looks a definite place chance but a win in the race seems a little unlikely given his age and gender. 5.5/10

14. Grand Marshal is an Australian trained six year old Gelding who scored a surprise win in the Sydney Cup last Autumn. He meets Who Shot TheBarman 1.5kg worse for a narrow victory in that race, and on the same weight terms for a one length deficit in the Caulfield Cup recently. His barrier is a bit awkward and he carries the same weight as last start which wasn’t a first four finish. He does boast a 2800m Flemington win though, and can cope with 3200m. Not hopeless. 5/10

15. Preferment is an Australian four year old Stallion dropping 4kg in weight off an unplaced, and well beaten effort in the Cox Plate. That doesn’t augur too badly for him on a historical basis, and he his record at the track is 2/2 including a Derby last year, and Weight For Age Tunbull Stakes win this Spring. 11 barrier is another bonus, the most prolific winning draw. He is sired by Zabeel who also produced 2007 winner Efficient, and 1997 winner Might And Power. Both won this race at the same age. He drops the same amount of weight that Efficient did off a similar run in the Cox Plate, albeit beaten a lot further. He was in the wrong part of the track though, and the winner gapped the rest of the field by nearly five lengths. There was some merit in the run, and although he has no form beyond 2500m it isn’t a factor for a local horse. He rates very highly historically. 8/10.

16. Quest For More is an English trained six year old Gelding who has very similar British form to Trip To Paris, but his run in the Geelong Cup recently was quite disappointing finishing second last. Dropping 5.5kg off that run is a positive, but his wide barrier isn’t. Hard to get warm about him despite having had the run here and good two mile form at home. 3.5/10

17. Almoonqith looks a very sound historical pick given his six year old stallion status, good barrier, and last start win in the Geelong Cup. He ran faster time in that race than either Dunaden or Americain did, albeit with less weight. Both those horses dropped 3.5kg into this race whilst he carries 2.5kg less. Interestingly he is by the same sire as Americain, and like that horse has an American bred mother. I guess we have to consider him a local now given the amount of starts he had here, even though they have all been this Spring. The fact he hasn’t won beyond 2800m overseas might not matter, and it’s difficult to find another negative. He looks a great winning chance, and his Group class WFA win in Dubai is another positive on his resume. 8.5/10

18. Kingfisher is a five year old imported Stallion in the Aidan O’Brien Coolmore stable who has a placing at 4000m in England behind Trip To Paris. His two starts this Spring (European Autumn) have been very poor, but he drops massively in weight and has a Tongue Tie applied for this race. He has drawn well but not having a run here is not a positive on a historical basis. 5/10

19. Prince Of Penzance is a six year old Australian gelding coming off a last start placing in the Moonee Valley cup when he was ridden upside down in the lead. Dropping 4kg is a historical positive but not sure barrier 1 is, unless he takes up the running again. Not sure he is good enough, or has quite the right historical profile, but he does have decent Flemington form which is good for a local. 5.5/10

20. Bondi Beach is a stablemate of Kingfisher. A European three year old colt but a four year old stallion in our hemisphere. If this race was run in Europe I think he would be favourite, and would proably win given his formlines. The horse he beat three starts ago (Order Of St, George) has since won by 5.5 lengths, 7 lengths and 11 lengths. The filly that beat him last time has a career record of five wins and three placings from eight starts, and has won since. The three year old form in Europe is very strong this year with Golden Horn winning the Arc. This horse hasn’t won or placed beyond 2900, hasn’t had a run here, and has drawn poorly so he unfortunately doesn’t rate well historically. A 5kg weight drop is the positive, as is a placing last start. 5/10

21. Sertorius is an eight year old Australian gelding who is out of form currently, and just seems to be making up the numbers. A good barrier, 4kg weight drop, and some decent form at Flemington are all positives historically so he doesn’t rate too badly. 5/10

22. The United States is a six year old locally trained former imported stallion who rates very highly on a historical basis. He drops 4kg off a Moonee Valley Cup win, and that is a positive for him because he isn’t an overly big horse. Barrier 3 is also going to afford him an economical run in view of seeing out the distance which is a query. The Moonee Valley cup has ceased to be a great lead up race in the modern era which is the only real negative on his historical resume, but he has lots of positives. 8/10.

23. Excess Knowledge is similar to the aforementioned in a lot of aspects, being a six year old former imported Stallion, and coming off a last start win. That win was in a more significant lead up race though(The Lexus), and he drops even more in weight to the tune of 5.5kg so has to rate a touch higher. The last horse to win this race via the Lexus was Shocking in 2009 and he ran much slower time (early tempo wasn’t as strong), and dropped less weight into the cup. Even more pertinent for this horse is that he is by the same sire (Monsun) as the last two winners of the race.As was the case with Shocking he has also drawn a very wide barrier That is the negative for him, but interestingly the last horse to win this race from barrier 24 was Brew in 2000. He had the same jockey (Kerrin McEvoy), and comes out of a win in the same race and carried a similar low weight. I think the class of this horse is questionable, his distance credentials are suspect, and he needs to overcome his habit of laying in. But I can’t downgrade on him on any of those factors on a historical basis, so he has to rate top pick. 9/10

24. Gust Of Wind is the solitary mare in the race and seeks to become the first of her sex to win the race since Makybe Diva in 2004. Although she comes in off a decent fourth in the Caulfield Cup the last seven mares that have won this race came off even better runs prior, which is perhaps a negative for her. Barrier 19 is another, and she doesn’t drop in weight. Her only run at Flemington was a decen on t in the Turnbull, and there is no doubt she can stay given her dominant ATC Oaks win in the Autumn over Winx on a wet track. That form looks sensational now and the reason I picked her to win at Caulfield. Any rain around would assist her no doubt but there are stronger historical chances. 5.5/10

Conclusion and 2015 Melbourne Cup Bet suggestion

The historical ratings place them in this order:
1. Excess Knowledge
2. Almoonqith
3. The United States
3. Preferment

Of the four top historical selections my gut feeling lies more with with Almoonqith.

The top three selections look great value at current market quotes. They can be backed on an Each Way basis with the comfort of knowing at least you are investing with historical precedents in your favour – history is on your side!