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The Flemington carnival reaches its fourth day after a week of highs (the Michelle and Stevie Payne, Darren Weir and Prince of Penzance story) and lows (rail bias and inconsistent track ratings), but Emirates Stakes day brings with it a card full of quality.
The track got down to the heavy range on Oaks day, and the outside rail seemed to be the better going as the day went on if the straight sprint races were any indication.
The rail is out 6 metres for this meeting, and with Melbourne’s unpredictable weather it’s hard to know how the track will be rated or play.
The Emirates Stakes is the feature, of course, a million dollar handicap over the Flemington mile.
Winners have been trending up in the weights in recent years, with the gradually compressed weights suiting those at the top, and the first six saddlecloths are also the first six in betting for this year’s race.
Bow Creek is the current market-elect, after an eye-catching run behind Turn Me Loose in the Crystal Mile at Moonee Valley, making good ground late in a race where the leader won. It was his first run in the country and he was an alarming drifter on the day, but he defied the betting, and gave the promise of better things to come.
Turn Me Loose is third favourite, meeting Bow Creek 1.5 kilograms worse for beating him by half a length last start. Given the way the Moonee Valley track benefited leaders on the day, and that the Emirates tends to be a high pressure race, Turn Me Loose is going to find it very difficult to win.
Also coming from the Crystal Mile into this are Lucky Hussler, Sons of John and Amovatio.
Lucky Hussler carries top weight here after his impressive Toorak Handicap win, three kilos more than when he was a narrow second in this race last year. It’s fair to say he’s a better horse now, so has earned his weight, and his run last-start was good out in the inferior ground.
Amovatio might be the best roughie in the race at around the $26 mark. He lumped 60 kilograms to win a listed race first-up, and the form behind him has stood up well on the country cups circuit. His second-up run at the Valley was better than it reads, and he drops to a low weight for the first time in over a year.
This has traditionally been a roughie’s race over the years, and Amovatio, primed to strike under the care of Chris Waller, should get the perfect run.
Sons of John is at even bigger odds, and must have claims with two placings to Winx this prep on his resume, including a third in the Group 1 Epsom Handicap. He copped some interference late in the straight at the Valley, but didn’t look to be going as well as others that are here. Still, a win wouldn’t surprise.
Arod ran on the same day as the Crystal Mile, except in the Cox Plate instead. We’ve already seen Gailo Chop come out of the Cox and win the Mackinnon, Criterion place in the Melbourne Cup, and a case can be made that Preferment actually should have won the race that stops a nation after a handy Cox Plate run.
Arod will no doubt come across from Barrier 15, tracking Turn Me Loose out of 11, and take up a position on the pace, which may not benefit his chances.
Speaking of the Mackinnon, Magic Artist and Ecuador are backing up from it into the Emirates Stakes, after both putting in excellent runs.
Magic Artist was climbing over heels late in the piece, trying for an inside run that wasn’t there, and no doubt he was going well enough to beat them all, but was he flattered by the hot rail?
Ecuador was superb for a horse that is more a miler than 2000-metre horse, and that run will have him topped off for this: hard and fit. He’s racing in great heart this prep, including the second-best run in the Epsom behind Winx, and will look to track the speed in this race. If the race isn’t set up for backmarkers, he can win.
Messene is another with the Epsom formline, but he’s been inconsistent this prep, and is proving hard to catch. If he brings his absolute best, he can surprise.
Disposition beat Messene by six lengths on Derby day, taking out the 1400-metre race that is a traditional lead-in to the Emirates. Hucklebuck did the double last year, with the most recent before that being All Silent in 2008.
Disposition is a rising star looking to win this and graduate to weight-for-age racing in the autumn. From four starts this campaign, he has wins at listed and Group 3 level, plus two seconds in Group 1 handicaps. He’s a huge chance, and has drawn beautifully to charge late.
Two mares are backing up from the Group 1 Myer Classic on Derby day, the winner Politeness, and May’s Dream, which put in her usual honest run to finish fourth.
Politeness was an emphatic winner, dispelling any doubts about her ability to run a strong mile, and she’s drawn well to come home in similar fashion on Saturday.
They’ll have to decide whether to go forward or back on May’s Dream from the widest barrier, and she’ll love dropping down the minimum, but could she be looking for further now?
Of the others, Moriarty isn’t in the form to win at this level, Rock Sturdy probably doesn’t quite have the class, Coronation Shallan deserves her shot and will run well without winning, while He or She is a good horse capable of filling a hole, but it’s hard to see him beating them all at this stage of his career.
Only one Emirates Stakes winner in the last 10 years has sat in the first half of the field, so the race is generally set up for the swoopers, and there looks to be good speed engaged here, with most of it drawing wide.
Selections
1. Amovatio 2. Disposition 3. Bow Creek 4. Ecuador
The Darley Classic is the other Group 1 feature on the day, with Chautauqua looking to turn the tables on Terravista after running an unlucky second to him last year. Dwayne Dunn gets his chance for redemption after making the wrong decision in the run, costing his mount victory.
Chautauqua has reeled off three jaw-dropping wins in a row this spring, putting away good fields from the rear with those sizzling sectionals of his. Barrier 4 probably won’t be ideal, but he’s lethal from anywhere. Will punters leap into his short odds, or will they tread warily with the memory of Exosphere in mind?
Buffering can’t really beat the absolute A-graders these days, but he was fantastic in the Manikato behind Chautauqua last start, and we know he’ll give his all. Terravista has drawn the inside again, coming out of the same race, and may not get every chance, but he’s well behind Chautauqua in the pecking order of Australian sprinters now.
Srikandi is tackling the Flemington straight for the first time, but is a high-class mare that proved her Melbourne spring-time credentials in the Manikato, running second to him. She’s a clear place-chance again.
Lumosty at least has some x-factor on her side in a bid to topple the favourite. She’s drawn what might be the right spot, can sprint faster than most when the time comes, and goes like a rocket up the straight. If Chautauqua strikes trouble, she’s the one to beat.
If there’s to be an absolute blow-out, Delectation might be the one to provide it. Chris Waller was the giant-killer in the Coolmore, and this horse was one of the runs of the day last Saturday. He’s a big trifecta hope at least.
Flamberge will run well as always, and might pinch a third or fourth, Tiger Tees isn’t good enough, Boban’s spring has been wasted saving him for this, and Bring Me The Maid can run a race if the track is heavy.
Selections
1. Chautauqua 2. Lumosty 3. Delectation 4. Buffering