It’s that time of year again where Hong Kong takes centre stage on the World Racing scene with it’s quartet of Weight For Age races, featuring some of the best equine talent from Europe, North America, Japan, UAE, Australasia, and, of course the local contingent.

Featured races include the Hong Kong Cup (2000m), Sprint (1200m), Mile (1600m) and Vase (2400m). A veritable feast of top class International racing for an Aussie Racing fan, and the bonus of having it in our own time zone. It doesn’t get any better!

With a bit of help from the HKJC website, a really good place to start (and conclude) is with some historical statistics and precedents.

Most of my own research is based on winners going back to 1999 (16 years). We had a great time of it last year picking all four winners, though there does seem to be a little more depth this year.

This year Australia is represented by Criterion, Lucia Valentina and Preferment, along with recent overseas acquisition Gailo Chop the winner of this years Mackinnon Stakes. Some readers would also be familiar with our former sprinter Not Listenin’tome who is starting to establish himself amongst the best in the Hong Kong ranks, though not quite a Weight For Age star yet.

Hong Kong Vase (Race 4)

This is a race where the Northern Hemisphere Europeans have had almost total dominance over the locals. Ironically it took Hong Kong roughie Dominant to end that stranglehold in 2013, coming in with some ‘putrid’ form to upset the more fancied continentals. He returns again this year after a reasonable fourth placed effort in 2014.

No HK horse had won in the previous 15 years, and the only non English or French horse to win in that period was the Japanese horse Stay Gold in 2001. He was seven years old, and is the only horse since 1994 to win this race aged above six.

This has been an excellent race for runners coming through the Breeders Cup Turf in North America, or the Japan Cup. Between them those 2 races have provided 8 winners.

Analysis:

Flintshire is the clear early favourite for the race, and he deserves that status having been runner up in the past two Prix De’Le Arc De Triomphe races at Longchamp in Paris, which is still the premier 2400m race in the World. He is a sensational dry track horse and won this race here last year. This time he doesn’t come via the Breeders Cup in the US but he did win at Saratoga over there two starts ago running an amazing 2.23.77 over the 2414m trip there. His last two runs make him the standout selection here. Perhaps the only real negative is the odd statistic that he hasn’t won a race inside or outside barriers 4-6, but he did run second in the Arc last start from barrier 11.

Cannock Chase won the Woodbine International in Canada last start over 2414m and that give him a perfect 2/2 at this distance. His time was six seconds inferior to that of Flintshire at Saratoga, but no doubt there is a distinct difference between both surfaces and circuits. He does seem to handle all track conditions and although he has drawn the outside barrier he does seem really good value at a double figure quote. A career record of 5-4/10 suggests so and he comes in off two consecutive wins.

Highland Reel was a meritorious third placing in the Cox Plate last start in Australia and he has won at this distance, but I’m sceptical it is his best trip (maybe 2000m is). Ryan Moore rides for Coolmore and has almost exclusively ridden Cannock Chase throughout it’s career. He is going to make his own luck from up on the pace.

Preferment is very hard to line up not having run at this distance since the AJC Derby in the Autumn here where he failed on a wet track .He had won the VRC Derby in the Spring of 2014 but bypassed the Caulfield Cup at this trip recently to run in the Cox Plate. He couldn’t have won the race the way things transpired, but he was beaten a long way which has me speculating he isn’t quite up to this standard. Definite excuses can be made for his Melbourne Cup failure where the 3200m might have been beyond his limitations anyway. Never underestimate trainer Chris Waller, and his combination with jockey Hugh Bowman.

Dariyan looks an up and coming horse but I’m doubting his dry track credentials a little.

Cirrus De Aigles is a champion in Europe but has failed to make much of an impact in five attempts here. This is only his second attempt at this race though, with the first being an excellent fifth placing beaten less than two lengths. He could be a surprise packet but his age has me looking elsewhere.

The Hong Kong horses look a very even lot and it would be hard to pick out just what is their best hope.

1. FLINTSHIRE
2. Cannock Chase
3. Highland Reel
4. Cirrus Des Aigles

Sprint (Race 5)

This has been an excellent race for the local Sprinters who have won 12 of the last 16 editions. That dominance has been curtailed in 3 of the past 5 years, but it took the superstar Japanese sprinter Lord Kanaloa to do so on on two of those occasions. There are some very interesting barrier stats relative to winners of this race. Eight of the past Nine winners have drawn between barriers 5-9, and no horse has won drawn inside 5 since the race reverted to 1200m (before 1999).

Thirteen of the past 16 winners have been aged either 4 or 5, though local Sprinter Aerovelocity did win this race last year aged 6. No runner aged 7 or over has won in that period, and no three year old has managed to either.

Four horses have managed to win this race twice since 1999, quite a revealing statistic. Local champion Lucky Nine could make it five this time around, though he would be the first to do so with a 4 year gap between wins (last was 2011). His age of eight looks to be the against him but his run last start was a return to form. He does meet both Gold Fun and Peniaphobia 2kg worse for finishing behind them last start though.

Analysis:

Concentrating on the Hong Kong contingent here, and history and the barrier draw guides me toward the early clear favourite again in Gold-Fun. Barrier six is just perfect for this race and he meets most of the locals 2kg better for his last win. The race was run to suit him that day and he got into the perfect position for a very straight forward win. He won’t come into this race overtaxed, and might get a similar economical run in transit again. He has quite often been raced beyond this distance, and in fact has run second in the last two Hong Kong Miles (1600m). But he is 2-2/4 at this trip and 3-3/7 with this kind of break between runs.

Perhaps the best value in the race is the up and coming local Strathmore who surprised many with his fast finishing fifth to Gold Fun in the Jockey Club cup last start. Barrier 9 is great historically, and his age is also favourable in that that respect. He is all Australian bred and many readers will remember his mother Our Egyptian Rain who was a top class 1200-1600m horse here. She won an Emirates at Flemington and was twice runner up in a Doomben 10000.

Peniaphobia looks a likely type here as well, off an excellent second in the same race last start. He worked very hard that day, and had he got the favours that Gold-Fun received, he would have gone awfully close to winning. Barrier 14 here does him no favours seemingly although a more patient ride could pay dividends.

The evergreen Lucky Nine (see above) was excellent in that same race storming home at the end of proceedings, and he has fared well at the barrier draw coming out of stall 5. Not Listenin’tome also seems to be on the improve, and has drawn an inside barrier which should help in this class, despite the historical anomaly.

Japanese mare Straight Girl looks the best of the Internationals having run in this race last year for an excellent third beaten one length. She is a better mare now coming off two Group 1 wins and a placing in the past 12 months. Had she not drawn barrier 13 this year she may well have been top pick. But she is decent value at a better than $8 quote.

1. GOLD-FUN
2. Straight Girl
3. Strathmore
4. Peniaphobia

Champions Mile (Race 7)

Of the four big races this is the one that HK gallopers have made their own. They have won 12 of the past 16, and also the past 9 editions. That dominance could continue in 2015 with Able Friend. 4, 5 and 6 year olds have dominated this race winning 19 of the past 23 which is a telling 13 of the past 24 winners have drawn outside barrier 9 so don’t be afraid to entertain those from wide draws.

The form of the past 5 winners coming in has been Eleventh, second. Eighth, Fourth and First, so it can be handy to look for a horse set to peak, moreso than one that already has.

Japan hasn’t provided a winner since 2005 (Hat Trick) .

Analysis:

It’s not hard to come up with Able Friend here given he won this race so impressively last year and was similarly impressive first up in HK after returning from his European sojourn. He was surprisingly beaten second up but it seemed more of a fitness issue than anything else and I’m not sure it was one of Jaio Moreira’s better rides. That run is still a good profile for this race as he looks set to peak here and he does meet the local horses 2kg better for that defeat.

He will need to be at his best though because the younger Japanese colt Maurice looms large. His last five starts have been at this distance, and he has won them all. He is clearly the best Japanese miler and Ryan Moore is aboard to navigate, as was the case last start.

Maurice is one very special horse and there even looks to be improvement in him. Probably the biggest question mark is that this is the first time he has travelled abroad, but if he has coped this could be a very memorable duel, not only of horse flesh but also jockeymanship. Moreira vs Moore is probably the world title jockey fight and what an arena to display their skills!

The mare Esoterique is an interesting International runner who beat home Able Friend very easily at Ascot. She prefers right hand tracks and although she was beaten in the US last start, she could place without surprising. Mondialiste finished in front of her last start, and the French five year old Stallion may have even better credentials, albeit a HK dry surface might test.

Both Contentment and Beauty Flame look decent local hopes with place chances, but they aren’t weighted to beat Able Friend.

History says Able Friend but Maurice is over twice his price and this is a race to really look forward to.

1. ABLE FRIEND
2. Maurice
3. Beauty Flame
4. Mondialiste

Cup (Race 8)

This had been a pretty poor race for the local Hong Kong horses with only one winner between the years of 1999-2010. Since then though HK has provided the past four winners through California Memory (twice in succession) Akeed Mofeed, and Designs On Rome last year. The last Japanese horse to win was Agnes Digital in 2001

17 of the past 21 winners have been aged either 4,5 or 6, so best to identify that age group. Interestingly 5 of the last 6 favourites to win have drawn Barrier 6 or wider.

Analysis:

As was the case last year this looks the hardest of the four races to assess. There is no doubt that the best credentialed International horse is the Dermot Weld trained Free Eagle. His run in the Arc recently was okay, and perhaps the 2400m was too much of an ask for him stamina wise. The mare Found who finished behind him there went on to win the Breeders Cup in America and defeat the Arc winner Golden Horn in the process. Free Eagle had been judged a little unluckily beaten by Golden Horn two starts ago in the Irish Champion Stakes at this distance when he suffered severe interference form the winner in the straight.

Criterion looks the best chance of an Australian win in Hong Kong this year and he ran a super race in this event in 2014, when ridden a little too close to the speed. He dashed away in the straight only to be run down late. He is proven here which could be to his advantage even though he was soundly beaten by Free Eagle and Golden Horn in Britain on separate occasions (4 lengths and 5 lengths). Since the barrier draw a lot has been made of his 13 draw, but Japanese horse A Shin Hakari likes to run his races at a fast tempo, so surely that will string this field out?

If he doesn’t lead then the recently Australian acquired Gailo Chop probably will, so there should be no loafing in this race. The former French horse looks a good hope but some give in the track might be necessary for him to shine. He was 6 lenghts astern of Free Eagle at Ascot in June.

Lucia Valentina can’t beat either Criterion or Gailo Chop on Australian form, but a last start win might have built up her confidence, and she does tend to run very well whilst fresh.

There is a very evenly balanced local contingent to contend with here including last years victor Designs On Rome who has had some injury concerns. It’s hard to say he is a better chance than he was last year given his fitness levels and the fact this edition seems a little more difficult. Military Attack ran second in this race last year but this time comes in off a win. He is world class at his best and has drawn to get the perfect run.

All of the Japanese contingent missed the Japan Cup to concentrate on this race. Staphanos has already raced in Hong Kong so has that advantage, whilst A Shin Hikari and Nuovo Record (Ryan Moore) have not. The former might be the surprise packet if he is allowed to dictate up front.

All being equal Free Eagle would win this race, but he has to contend with the travel and a different surface to what he has probably been accustomed to. This is his swansong though so I’d be expecting a big showing from the best credentialed horse in the race:

1. FREE EAGLE
2. Criterion
3. Military Attack
4. Staphanos

Overall:

The four top selections above are the best historical choices and just happen to all be early market favourites. That situation turned up trumps in 2014 and no reason they can’t all run well again. I will be taking them all in Multis and All Ups.

Perhaps the best value winning chances are Cannock Chase (Vase), Straight Girl and Strathmore (Sprint), Maurice (Mile) and Criterion (Cup), and particularly so the latter horse if you can invest on him with an overseas betting agency.