Cronulla Sharks will win the NRL Premiership, the Hawks were done, Mike Phelps was too old.
Australian sporting media identities are very good at jumping the gun and I think they have done it again with Capitalist and his first up defeat in the San Domenico Stakes (1100m) at Rosehill on Saturday. I have two words for you.
Settle down.
I think this whole ‘Slipper Hoodoo’ can be a bit of a smokescreen if you look a bit further than just numbers. Going back through to Dance Hero, all the Slipper winners were ready made two year olds who were up and running early in the season.
Vancouver, Mossfun and Overreach had their injury concerns and were never the same horses they were as a juvenile, Crystal Lily placed on several occasions behind Black Caviar and Sebring never raced again due to injury.
That leads to the others. Phelan Ready, who knows what you could say about him. However the hard two-year-old season definitely took the stuffing out of him for later years. 2005 winner Stratum never won another race but he contested some high class races and placed at Group 1 level.
12 months on from 2005, Miss Finland scored one of the more dominant wins in Slipper history and ended up going on to be a champion and arguably should have won the Cox Plate later that year.
The two best horses to have come the other side of the Slipper over the last decade has clearly been Sepoy and Pierro. Sepoy was just a freak as a two year old and proved that in his three year old, stringing together a number of wins, including a couple at Group level. And Pierro did some scary things in his career, which left Gai Waterhouse to declare that he is the best horse she has trained in her illustrious career.
The point is that it’s not all over for Capitalist.
Let’s look at the race on the weekend. The winner Star Turn ran the 1100m in 1:04:39 and ran the last 600m in 33.89. That meant that Capitalist would have had to have run at least 33.5, perhaps quicker, to win.
And with 60kg on his back for a horse that was first up with bigger fish to fry, I thought his run wasn’t as bad as what most people have made it out to be. In fact, the top weight in the San Domenico hasn’t won this century – that includes names like Sidestep and All Too Hard.
He probably won’t win the Run To The Rose either given it’s similar conditions. Your true guide on Capitalist could potentially be in the Golden Rose, but that also raises a question mark.
Will he run a strong 1400m?
His career highlight of course came in the Golden Slipper (1200m), where he was given a lovely ride from Blake Shinn yet only fell in to beat Yankee Rose, who I am tipping at the moment to win the Cox Plate. Therefore, that form does stack up well, but on face value, he does appear a real risk at running a hard seven furlongs.
If I was Team Snowden, I’d have a crack at the Golden Rose, and if he wins that, then send him to stud. If not, freshen him up and put all your eggs in one basket for the Coolmore Stud, a race which is strongly challenging the Caulfield Guineas as the premier stallion making race Australia has to offer.
Don’t sack Capitalist from one run. The trials suggested he had come back in brilliant order, so if you backed him on the weekend, like I did, keep the faith.
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