The second Victorian Group 1 of the season will be run this week, with the Makybe Diva Stakes taking centre stage.
It is the only Group 1 weight-for-age 1600-metre race in Victoria for the year, held at Flemington, with the long straight giving every horse their chance.
Black Heart Bart is the red-hot favourite, as well he might be after his demolition job in the Memsie Stakes, where he claimed the first Group 1 of the season with authority. Eight of the 13 runners here come from that lead-up race. (Click to Tweet)
Despite Black Heart Bart’s quality and versatility, he has never won beyond 1400m, so that is a little knock he must overcome. His record at 1500m and over is 9: 0-2-2, while his record at 1400m and below is 23: 13-7-0. If he is ever going to secure that 1600m victory, it must be now, in the form of his life against a field he has handled.
Rising Romance was a fine second in the Memsie, the fourth time she has run a placing at Group 1 WFA in Australia without winning one. She’s a good mare and usually keeps her opposition honest.
Palentino, off the back of a building Memsie run, will have his admirer’s third-up at the Flemington mile, the same circumstances which saw him win the Australian Guineas in the autumn. This has been his target race according to the Weir camp, but he has to be good enough to beat his stablemate Black Heart Bart.
Alpine Eagle is still the x-factor horse, running an even race first-up, and might be ready to take the next step now. His two runs at this track and distance have seen him be beaten a combined one length in the Australian Guineas and last year’s Makybe Diva Stakes.
Where he gets to from Barrier 10 is the awkward question that will be answered in the early stages, and he will need the speed to be on in order to run over the top of them. If he gets a genuine tempo, it can be his day.
Tarzino hit the line pleasingly from last in the Memsie, and will relish his preferred track and more ground, but will the mile still be too short? He’s got the quality to contend.
He or She is usually found wanting in this class of race, but his second-up record gives him some claims, as does the fact the Flemington mile should suit him down to the ground. He can get going once he winds up, and is capable of a boilover.
Sofia Rosa was in a similar boat to Tarzino, albeit with less flair, and she looks like she’ll need another. Prince of Penzance did enough, and will need the run again.
Happy Trails and Our Ivanhowe hit the race first-up, which was a winning formula for Fawkner last year.
Happy Trails hasn’t resumed over 1600m before, and it should suit him, but he usually needs a couple of runs. Our Ivanhowe is expected to go to another level and prove himself a high-level WFA horse this campaign, if we listen to Lee Freedman. He could well be in the reckoning if things go his way. Any cut out of the ground should help him.
Entirely Platinum usually proves a tough nut to crack in this sort of race when in form, and his first-up run in the PB Lawrence Stakes suggests he might be back. A month between runs is his query, but if he’s fit enough, the race may be run to suit and he could hold on for a place.
Jacquinot Bay will give his usual good account, and be somewhere thereabouts with luck. He is going well for something easier next time he drops in grade.
Ayres Rock is 150-1, and his main role is to play pace-maker. He’s not the worst horse in Australia.
Selections
1. Alpine Eagle 2. Black Heart Bart 3. Rising Romance 4. Entirely Platinum
Around the traps
Thames Court looks a great each-way bet in the Let’s Elope at Flemington. She can accelerate from a position in the first four in running and will take catching. Santa Ana Lane will be picking up a race or two this prep. He returned well and will take beating in the Bobbie Lewis, although it looks a hot race.
Up in Sydney, you can read my Golden Rose preview here. On the same card, Dixie Blossoms simply must be stuck with the Sheraco Stakes, after just failing to get the prize in the Toy Show Quality first-up. Her biggest danger might actually be a $17 chance in Cana, coming up from Melbourne for Team Hawkes.
Rose’s roughie
Selenia hit the line well first-up at big odds in the Quezette Stakes, which is turning into a strong form race, and she jumps at a similar price in Race 2 at Flemington.
She is tough and honest, and has won down the straight. If Barrier 15 is no spoil, she should be somewhere around the mark in what looks an even field.
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