Super Saturday at Randwick sees Sydney’s biggest day of spring racing, but the entire weekend is full of quality, with the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley on Friday night, and the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes taking place at Flemington on Sunday.
For fans of racing and both football codes, it is a weekend where the head spins at all of the options on offer.
The Moir Stakes is the first genuine sprint Group 1 of the spring, the first to take place under 1400m. It is run at weight-for-age over 1000m, and this year has attracted a superb field of short-course specialists.
Chautauqua is the dominant favourite, and apart from being the best sprinter in the land he hasn’t been beaten first-up since his debut way back in October 2013. His last two first-up wins have been at 1000m, one at Moonee Valley in the McEwen Stakes, and one down the straight in the Black Caviar Lightning.
Chautauqua’s get-back style makes him the most thrilling horse in Australia, and there are no secrets to the way he’ll be trying to win this race.
A lack of tempo won’t be Chautauqua’s concern either. There are no less than four natural leaders in the race, along with two others that like to be ridden aggressively forward. They will, as they say in racing parlance, go like cut cats.
Redzel will win the fight for leading rights, and is two from two this preparation. The Snowdens have worked him out, and the Melbourne way of going will hold no fears as a last-start Caulfield winner, beating a good field.
Ball of Muscle and Buffering will be next in line.
Ball of Muscle hasn’t won for a long time, but is tough and will give his all. Discounting last prep when he didn’t quite come up, he has placed 18 from 18 throughout his career. He ran second in this race last year behind Buffering.
Speaking of the Buff – what a marvel. Remember, he was Group 1 placed three times behind Black Caviar in his early days, and has kept that level up over many years. His last four wins have come in Hong Kong, Gold Coast, Perth and Melbourne. He’d rather a flight than a feed.
Buffering has won the Moir Stakes three times already, but this looks the sternest test given the amount of speed engaged in the race. It will be a privilege to see him on the track again.
Heatherly is a fascinating mare that has shown brilliance in her career, but is yet to temper all of her bad manners. She is a Group 1 winner in waiting if there has ever been one, and while she has always been an out-and-out leader in her career, she flew home after missing the start last time to just fail in the McEwen Stakes.
Could she be purposely ridden to take a sit behind Redzel and co this time, and get the drop on them? She’s the best of the bigger odds runners.
Extreme Choice is the genuine x-factor in the race as the resuming Blue Diamond winner. It’s rare to see a spring three-year-old to resume in a Group 1 WFA race, which makes him a fascinating runner.
We know he’s quick, we know he’s talented, and by virtue of him resuming here we can assume he’s going well enough to contend. He’s found a hot race to do so in though.
Lucky Hussler is the only sprinter-miler in the field, and he is unlikely to have the sharpness in his legs to contend at this level. Wild Rain is a mare in form, and has finished in the top two at nine of her last ten starts. If she can do so again here, it will be a career peak by a long way. Chloe in Paris looks outgraded in this class.
They should go like the clappers here, which can set it up for the stalking Chautauqua, but races aren’t run on paper. He’s the horse to beat, obviously.
Selections: 1.Heatherly 2.Chautauqua 3.Buffering 4.Extreme Choice
The Turnbull Stakes is the key fork-in-the-road race for the Cups and Cox Plate contenders, where they shape up against each other in the unique set weights with penalties format.
Hartnell is one of two Sydney horses in the field, and he comes into this race off the back of two Group 2 WFA wins by a combined 13.6 lengths, which came after resuming with a second to Winx.
He gets in well with 57.5 kg’s given his last two starts and the fact he’s a Group 1 WFA winner. He did fail as equal favourite in this race last year, but was hardly disgraced and hits this race as a lengths better horse.
Preferment won last year’s Turnbull Stakes, and has three Group 1 victories at Flemington, but hasn’t been able to get within eight lengths of Hartnell at his last start.
The rest of the field comes from a variety of lead-up races.
Our Ivanhowe and Happy Trails both resumed well in the Makybe Diva Stakes, and should run well again, but need to find a level to threaten. Sofia Rosa ran on well in the same race but might still be looking for more ground.
Tarzino comes from the Underwood, but has yet to live up to his reputation or the lofty aims that have been set for him. This is something of a d-day for him getting to Flemington and 2000m now.
The United States is the other WFA horse in the race, and might have won the Dato Tan Chin Nam Stakes first-up with clear running. The Lloyd Williams camp set themselves to be players on this day, and his last two 2000m runs saw a Ranvet Stakes victory and a Queen Elizabeth second.
The Naturalism provides a few runners.
Jameka recorded her first win since the VRC Oaks in that race, which was a little monkey off her back. She is all class and never shied away from the boys as a 3yo filly, so it was a deserved and dominant win. She can go on with it, is well weighted, and looks good for a top five finish in the Caulfield Cup when she gets there.
Set Square ran her usual honest race in the Naturalism, but hasn’t won since her VRC Oaks win in 2014. She was beaten less than a length in this race last year. Second Bullet is 100-1 but should be triple that.
Raw Impulse has had a boom on him since joining the Weir yard, and he put a disappointing first-up performance behind him by heading over to Adelaide and taking out the Tokyo City Cup by five lengths last start. It’s a long way from there to the Turnbull Stakes though.
Tally won’t have many admirers, but he looks a nice bolter to throw in quaddies. He licked Palentino the last time he was at this distance, and there isn’t much better form around Victoria at the moment than Royal Rapture form.
There is no obvious leader on paper, and Hartnell might end up in front by default in the early stages. Jameka and Preferment might be up there with him, and it will take some effort for anything to get past the three class horses in the field in that scenario.
Selections: 1.Hartnell 2.Jameka 3.Preferment 4.Tally
Around the traps: Plenty of action with 26 metropolitan races across the Valley, Caulfield and Flemington this weekend, and Mr Individual runs in the first of them, and looks the safest banker of the lot dropping from Group 1 level to benchmark 90 class. Anything even money or above is a gift. Tessera looks a safe each-way play in the Stutt Stakes.
At Caulfield, a smart Gai Waterhouse filly resumes in race 7, named Sylpheed. She wasn’t far behind Caulfield Guineas favourite Impending at start two, and she should have won in Adelaide before her spell. She has serious talent, and you won’t miss with her each-way at $7 in a field of moderate depth.
At Flemington, the Manifold Stakes is a Group 2 in name only given there isn’t a stakes winner in the field. There are two maidens in the field, but one of them is an each-way special at $9. Smart As You Think has been placed twice at Listed level, both against the boys, and is itching to win a race like this staying at the mile after racing over 1600m second-up.
Rose’s Roughie: Smart As You Think just got nailed last start in the Morphettville Guineas, by a Tony McEvoy colt named Silvera on the Derby trail. He’s two from two so far, and will relish every inch of the Flemington straight and the step up to 1800m in the UCI Stakes on Sunday. We can thank our regular commenter Andrew for this one, who alerted us to Silvera a few weeks ago. $17 is available on him.
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