This weekend is packed with high-class action across three programs, kicking off on Friday night with Moir Stakes night at the Valley, followed by ‘Super Saturday’ at Randwick and finishing with the Turnbull Stakes at Flemington on Sunday.
I’ll focus on the majors, starting with the Moir Stakes (1000m). I was surprised that $2.25 was offered all-in for Chautauqua. The Timeform ratings were released during the week and Chautauqua sat alongside Hartnell for the best performance of 2016 down under.
1000m is not his pet distance, but on the flip side, he flies at the Valley, his jump outs have been sharp… and there’s the little fact that he is the best sprinter in the world.
Don’t underestimate the warrior that is Buffering. He had legitimate excuses for his Hong Kong failure, but he is back in a big way judging on a sharp trial win at Eagle Farm where he ran time under a hold. I’m not sure he can cross Redzel, but if he does, he comes right into calculations.
The really interesting runner is Lucky Hussler. They pulled the pin on him in the Autumn after a disappointing effort at the track in the William Reid. He’s been given a good break and I really liked what I saw in the Casterton trial where he looked to do it comfortably. He flies fresh and should get a charmed run just off the tempo.
I am very keen to take on Extreme Choice. Outside of Flying Artie, I question how strong the Blue Diamond form is despite several winners coming out of it. The jump outs have been okay, but it hasn’t screamed out to me he is a threat to Chautauqua. He is a big risk.
Chautauqua clearly for me, ahead of Buffering, Lucky Hussler and Ball of Muscle.
The Flight Stakes (1600m) is the first Group l to be run and won at Randwick on the weekend.
I’m declaring Yankee Rose as a good thing and the early market push supports me. Her first-up effort in the Golden Rose (1400m) was huge. She was completely ridden upside down and then was forced to do it all the way near the inside, which wasn’t the best going at all. Her trial win since was brilliant and she did it without blinkers.
I’m a huge fan of Omei Sword. She absolutely toyed with them first up in the Silver Shadow before going to the Golden Rose where she was a little unlucky not to finish closer to Astern, having been held up at a vital stage. That won’t happen here with the wide gate. She has the form on the board this spring, but I’m just wondering about the upside that’s left in her compared to Yankee Rose.
Next best for me is Awoke. She was much better in the Tea Rose when on heels behind the front bunch late. She’ll eat up the Randwick mile here and if there is a knockout winner, it will be this girl because she has all the right attributes.
However, it’s all about Yankee Rose, ahead of Omei Sword, Awoke and Global Glamour.
The Epsom Handicap (1600m) is one of the best mile races in Australia. The 2016 field probably lacks the depth of previous years, but it’s intriguing.
I’ve been on Happy Clappers all the way through and I’m not jumping off. He has pretty much had two barrier trials to prepare for this, his grand final. The last two times he has been at the Randwick mile, he won the Villiers and placed behind Winx in the Doncaster. Good enough for me.
The obvious threat is Hauraki. He is a first-up winner of the Tramway before going to the George Main where he ran a cracking race himself but was simply no match for champion mare Winx. This horse is best served at the mile and not further, because it allows him to attack the line, and that should eventuate here. He is a ripping chance and deserved favourite.
For the life of me, I can’t figure out why Mighty Lucky is double figure odds.
His Bill Ritchie run was enormous with the big weight. He got held up for most of the straight and was only clear 150m out when he worked home with purpose. He tumbles in weight now and comes here with enormous upside. If there is a knockout, it’ll come courtesy of him.
Happy Clapper to win the Epsom, over Hauraki, Mighty Lucky and Fabrizio.
The staying Group l is the Metropolitan (2400m). The race sets up well for Magic Hurricane to defend his title. He spanked them last year and amazingly, 12 months on, he drops in weight. You have to forgive him recently because he just isn’t a WFA horse. Handicap is his go and the key fact is McDonald is down to 53.5kg to ride, a weight he rarely rides at.
It wasn’t the strongest Newcastle Cup on paper but it might turn out to be a good form reference. Sacred Master was the winner and he was given an absolute peach from Bowman to get the job done. 2400m and beyond is his go, he gets really good weight relief and he will eat up the Randwick 2400m. He is a massive threat.
I am certainly not going to rule out Dee I Cee. He lost some momentum in the Newcastle Cup but he was still strong to the line and through it when he finished second to Sacred Master. The lead is probably there for him or Storm The Stars. Either way, he is a tough customer who will stay all day and the jockey is in Group l form at the moment.
I’m going with Magic Hurricane, over Sacred Master, Dee I Cee and Junoob, who won’t know himself with 53.5kg.
The Turnbull Stakes (2000m) highlights a nine-race card at Flemington on Sunday and it could be a case of take the best price you can for Hartnell because really… how can anyone beat him?
He has the Winx form and then spanked his competitors at his next two, even if on both occasions it was against plodding stayers. It’s a different kettle of fish here, but he is in the zone right now and he should get the run of the race. He just wins I think.
The obvious threat is Jameka. Nick Hall got her home in the Naturalism (2000m), but even then, she would have won regardless of the ride. The run prior in the Dato was solid and she is another ticking over beautifully. She loves racing at Flemington, is down in the weights and there is no doubting she will be strong. Definite contender.
From a Caulfield Cup perspective, I am really interested to see how Sofia Rosa runs. She was a real eye catcher in the Makybe Diva (1600m) when getting back to near last and closing off hard late, attacking the line and powering through it. She is another on the minimum and drawn to sit with cover and ambush late.
But for me, Hartnell is a good thing, ahead of Jameka, Sofia Rosa and Our Ivanhowe.
The trial runners fired once again last weekend with Super Cash getting the job done in the opener at Caulfield. There are more to follow this Friday/Saturday. Here they are down below:
General Jackson- Moonee Valley R4
Estaminet- Moonee Valley R4
Chautauqua- Moonee Valley R7
Heatherly- Moonee Valley R7
What A Hoot- Caulfield R4
Cool Chap- Caulfield R8
Jorda- Randwick R1
Condor Heroes- Randwick R2
Misty Lad- Randwick R2
Capitalist- Randwick R5
Yankee Rose- Randwick R6
Our Boy Malachi- Randwick R9
Danish Twost- Randwick R9
Good luck and happy punting!
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