The Sydney Carnival is done and dusted so now it’s time for Melbourne to shine, starting this Saturday with Caulfield Cup day.
I’ll preview the quaddie legs, races seven through to ten, starting off with the Tristarc Stakes (1400m).
I am quite keen on Tycoon Tara, a former Victorian who comes back home after putting together such an impressive patch of form under team Snowden in Sydney. She controlled the Golden Pendant (1400m) from the front and gave none of her competitors a look in, bolting clear when asked to and scoring a dominant victory.
I see her getting a very soft lead here, and with the rail out six metres, it will be no disadvantage being on speed.
Danish Twist was a horse I’d hoped to get some value for, but the bookies didn’t miss her outstanding fresh run in the Premiere. Though drawn wide, as well as perhaps not getting favours with the tempo, I cannot ignore what she did last time in.
I have enormous respect for Shillelagh. She produced one of the wins of the day a fortnight ago at the track, coming from a near impossible position to nail Sovereign Nation right on the peg. That horse ran at Caulfield on Wednesday and was very good with no luck, so the form has been franked to an extent. She has to give away a start but she showed last time she can produce a brilliant sectional.
Tycoon Tara over Danish Twist, Shillelagh and French Emotion.
The second leg is the big one, the Caulfield Cup (2400m).
There are two plays to this race – back Jameka or the Internationals. I am going with Jameka because she has lengths on the locals. She had an outstanding win in the Naturalism and she spanked the Turnbull field bar Hartnell. She’ll love the rise to 2400m, she meets everything from the Turnbull better off here and she is the pick of the locals.
The pick of the internationals is Scottish. This is the first visit down under for Charlie Appleby and he means business with a high-class animal. Scottish stuck to the task gamely at Haydock before getting the job done over 1800m during the York Carnival. However, the form from York does look suspect because the fast-finishing runner-up was an import first up off a more than 800-day break.
On the flip side, the last time Scottish was at 2400m, he ran second to Highland Reel, who went on to run well in the Cox Plate last year and recently ran second in the Arc. His turn of foot is just about superior to anything engaged in the field.
If you are looking for one at a price, it is definitely Our Ivanhowe. Of those behind Jameka in the Turnbull, I thought Our Ivanhowe stuck to the task very well on a rock hard fit, which is something he normally despises. The heavy shower on Wednesday should give the track some cushion and that will play into his hands.
Jameka on top to beat Scottish, Our Ivanhowe and Sir Isaac Newton.
The return of Lankan Rupee highlights the Caulfield Sprint (1100m).
However, the weights really favour Hellbent, who was explosive in winning at the track last time out, producing an unbelievable finish from last to sweep past Sheidel and charge clear for an impressive win. Sheidel came out and won a Stakes race last weekend, so the form reads well. Carrying only 53kg, Hellbent will take some holding out.
Our Boy Malachi had late market support when resuming in the Premiere at Randwick. He was enormous in defeat given he was wide, with no cover on speed, and he showed tremendous fight in finishing a narrow second to Takedown. He has a lethal second up record and he should get a good cart over courtesy of Faatinah, or if not, track that runner.
Adelaide mare Viddora deserves some respect. She beat a subsequent Stakes winner first up at Morphettville. She then went to the Valley where she finished within a couple of strides of beating Heatherly, who later placed in the Moir behind Extreme Choice, which is currently the best sprint form in Australia.
Her trial last week was nothing short of outstanding. I can see her running a mighty race.
Hellbent to win, over Our Boy Malachi, Viddora and Wild Rain.
The final race on the card is the Moonga Stakes (1400m) and it promises to be a beauty.
I was really impressed by the first up effort of Hopfgarten over 1400m at Flemington. He was a long way back in the run before finishing off strongly and ending up behind Ulmann, who has been one of the consistent gallopers across winter and spring. He comes here with enormous upside and is pretty well weighted.
The interesting runner is Mabeel. He performed at a high level when racing in New Zealand, including a fourth in the Thorndon Mile behind Kawi – the best horse New Zealand has to offer. Mabeel is unbeaten fresh, draws well and gets the services of Dwayne Dunn. Big market watch.
Lucky Liberty is definitely one to include in exotics. He may have missed the carnage when racing here a fortnight back, but it was still a super win given it was just his second run since March of 2015. He still has upside left, draws a soft gate and will be ridden by Chris Parnham, who usually steers Voodoo Lad.
I’m going with Hopfgarten, ahead of Mabeel, Lucky Liberty and Good Project.
In other races on the program:
R1: Sylpheed
R2: Peacock
R3: Super Cash
R4: Moqueen
R5: Kent
Good luck and happy punting!
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