We are a tick under four weeks away from the richest raceday in Australia: Magic Millions Day on the Gold Coast.
There has been some high class performances over the past week or so for both the Classic and Guineas, so I thought I’d have a closer look at who are the key runners leading up to the respective races and perhaps find a horse to avoid.
Horse To Beat: For me, the market has got it right with Madeenaty. She has been the most impressive juvenile winner that Victoria has produced this season. She spanked them on debut in the Maribyrnong Trial before producing one of the runs of Cup Week in defeat on Cup Day behind Invincible Star.
Her stable have been runner up five times in the race but this looks their best chance. She’s nominated for Wyong this week where the track layout is very difficult, especially for youngsters, so don’t be perturbed if she gets rolled there. Keep an eye on how she handles it going the other way.
The Threat: Ours To Keep is probably the number one seed of the locals.
He was huge in winning the Phelan Ready on the weekend given he chased a hot speed throughout and was under pressure on the turn, but he kept finding and eventually wore down Snitzcraft, running 33.5 for his final 600m, which is very sharp for a two year old. I think he’ll have no issues with the 1200m and has a lethal turn of foot when ridden to produce it for trainer Chris Munce.
The Roughie: Can’t believe $26 plus is on offer for Colosimo. She toyed with them on debut despite doing plenty wrong and though the win at Eagle Farm was narrow, I thought it was very impressive.
McEvoy gave her the charmed run behind the speed before presenting at the right time and I think the margin was narrow because she just didn’t know how to put them away. Once she figures out what the caper is about, she’ll develop into a classy filly and I think she will love a fast run 1200m at the Gold Coast, where she won on debut.
Not for me: Champ Elect is a nice filly for Chris Munce and is a stablemate of Ours To Keep, but he will give the filly windburn with all things being equal. The Calaway Gal win on Saturday didn’t rate highly at all, running slow overall time compared to the meeting, and she only got up in the last couple of strides.
Needs to improve big time to threaten the big boys and girls here, and $11 seems severe unders. I’d want double that and perhaps even better.
Horse To Beat: For me, it is all about Global Glamour and what she does. She is the best horse in the race by a fair margin and has the runs on the board given she won the Flight and Thousand Guineas in the space of seven days. The Flight win saw her beat Yankee Rose, who won the Spring Champion, beating home the Derby winner and then placing in the Cox Plate.
That form is class. Her trial on Friday at Randwick oozed even more class and I’d be very happy to take the $4.20.
The Threat: Billy The Kid is a forgotten horse for mine in the race. His two wins this time in, both at Eagle Farm, have been outstanding for mine and the clock backs it up, as well as the subsequent form.
The last start was over 1400m and he was off the bit before the turn and somewhat struggling, but he really picked up over the final 250m and charged through the line. He is classy and I could certainly entertain him each way.
One To Avoid: I’m really keen to take on Winning Rupert. No disputing the fact he is a star, because the clock tells you he is top shelf. But jockey Jeff Lloyd did state after the first up win he isn’t sold on the horse running a strong 1400m. Guess what he’ll face in the Magic Millions Guineas?
The 1400m will be high pressure in a classic big race hustle and bustle, and he’ll be in the thick of it to his detriment. If he was my horse, I’d give him a little freshen up and send him to Flemington for the Lightning, because he’d be a good thing there I think.
But a brutal 1400m for a speed demon? No thanks.
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