Derby Day is Christmas for racing fans, and there are nine presents in the form of races to be opened throughout the day.

There are four Group 1s on the card, each one with varying complexities that form students will find difficult to work out.

Victoria Derby
The Derby is the feature race of the day, run over the arduous 2500m for three year olds, and a capacity field awaits.

Ace High is the highest rater, carries the number one saddlecloth, and looks likely to jump favourite coming off a win in the Group 1 Spring Champion last start. He looked a good thing in that race, but only just lasted, not exactly savaging the line in a way that indicated 2500m would be right up his alley.

But, he was ridden to win over 2000m that day, and only had to be rated to get the job done, which he did. He has won two races in a row controlling from the front, but trainer David Payne wants him to take a sit behind the speed this time around. He has drawn by far the best of all the main chances, and looks a top three lock.

Tangled tried desperately to run down Ace High in the Spring Champion, going down by a bare margin, and has since run second in the Caulfield Classic behind Cliff’s Edge. He’s ready to win, and peaks now.

Main Stage, another big chance, ran third in that Caulfield Classic, but it’s worth noting all three placegetters benefited from the rails bias on the day, even if they were the main chances going into the race. Main Stage is back to the scene of his dominant win in the UCI Stakes, and it’s clear that he relishes Flemington.

Sully has been back in the ruck behind Ace High in the Gloaming Stakes and Spring Champion, but is poised to breakthrough now given he looks the most likely to eat 2500m, always a question mark when the entire field is stepping up to that distance for the first time.

These four look the main players, and their combined Sydney and Melbourne form has tied together quite nicely. There doesn’t appear much between them.

Eshtiraak and Aberro come through the UCI Stakes and Caulfield Classic, both a few lengths behind the apparent A-graders in this race. These two have been running into each other their entire careers, and there’s nothing between them. One of them might pop into the first four.

A horse like Astoria couldn’t finish ahead of any of Ace High, Tangled or Sully in the Gloaming and Spring Champion, and has since come down and run a solid third in the Geelong Classic.

It suggests that Geelong race is the B-grade form, which means the likes of Weather With You and Ocean’s Fourteen, the quinella in that race, need to go up a serious level. It should be noted they do have kinder draws than most of the favoured runners, which will help them bridge the gap.

Justice Faith, Nothing Too Hard, Rockarral and Johnny Vinko, also ran there, and have it all to do. Ocean’s Fourteen would be the obvious pick to run the best of that lot, given he looks to be making the most rapid improvement between runs.

Greycliffe has taken on older horses at his last two starts, winning over 2200m in benchmark 64 class last time out. He certainly shapes as an interesting runner, and will have admirers.

Pissaro, Wolfe Tone, and Beachwood (if he gets a run) look outclassed.

The 2500m at Flemington is one of the most demanding starts, and inside barriers are favoured in a Derby. They can be the difference between winning and losing, especially in an even field. Many a time we hear about a young horse that would have won if he’d drawn better, but had to cover too much ground early or had to concede too big a start.

Selections: 1.Ace High 2.Tangled 3.Ocean’s Fourteen 4.Main Stage

Coolmore Stud Stakes
The Coolmore is the second Group 1 for three-year-olds on the day, run over 1200m. There’s nothing like a capacity 20 horse sprint field charging down the Flemington straight, and this looks the toughest nut to crack on a day of even races.

We’ll start with the Golden Rose, because that is always the A+ form for three year olds.

This year, that race was taken out by Trapeze Artist by the best part of four and a half lengths at $41 after $91 was bet. His odds should probably never have been that high, but still, it was a turn up. Whether he can replicate such a stunning performance is a big question mark.

Dracarys and Merchant Navy brought in strong form to the Golden Rose but were beaten into eighth and tenth respectively. They are two of many that wouldn’t surprise if they were there at the business end.

Formality was 11th in the Golden Rose, and was reported not to get the trip at 1400m, but has since won the Blue Sapphire Stakes at Caulfield. She also was beating the likes of Alizee and Champagne Cuddles in Sydney early in her prep, and is a bit underrated. Don’t take her lightly.

Jukebox and Lone Eagle filled the placings behind Formality in the Blue Sapphire, while Summer Passage was sixth. Jukebox has had every chance at his last couple, and is smart, but needs to find a couple of lengths.

The Caulfield Guineas is actually providing a few runners, tasked with dropping back to 1200m from a mile. Kementari and the filly Catchy ran second and third respectively there, while The Mission is proving to be nowhere near it this preparation after being a Group 1 winning two year old.

Catchy won the Danehill Stakes down the straight earlier this prep, so must be respected, but you have to go back to Weekend Hussler in 2007 for the last horse to win this coming off the Guineas.

Viridine didn’t run in the Golden Rose, but has been the fresh horse on the Sydney scene. He’s unbeaten after four starts, and keeps raising the bar as he goes up a level each time, winning his last two in fine style. Godolphin horses do struggle to translate Sydney form to Melbourne though.

There are a few Sydney B-graders populating the field also, through the likes of Goodfella coming off two wins in a row in lesser races, and Andaz and Malahat, neither of which are bringing in form to suggest they can be competitive at Group 1 level.

Gold Coast colt Eptimum has come down and strung together three in a row progressing from maiden to Group 3 winner, and his form ties in quite easily through Viridine, given both horses have beaten Single Bullet into second this spring. Eptimum might be the overs.

We can’t forget The Everest either, which provides Tulip and Houtzen, both of which ran well in the grand sprint. Tulip made some lovely ground on the fence (better ground) after a canny ride from Tim Clark, while Houtzen held her own leading the way up front. Both have to be included in the chances.

Invincible Star has been well handled by Houtzen both times they’ve met across their careers, but Invincible Star came out last start and bolted in by four lengths at Caulfield. She made her debut with a win down the straight, so has experience.

Wassergeist will win races, but not this one. Darren Weir has been getting his odds runners to have a say in these big races, so Limestone might have to be considered for multiples.

There’s plenty of speed in the race, and it’s going to get hectic. We don’t know how the track is going to play, or if one side of the straight will be favoured over the other. Will the field split to either side, or come down the middle?

You could take half the field in a box trifecta and still not find a leg of it. What a race it promises to be. Good luck!

Selections: 1.Tulip 2.Viridine 3.Merchant Navy 4.Formality

Kennedy Mile
This is the second year of the restructured Flemigton carnival, which sees the Group 1 mile handicap, formerly known as the Emirates Stakes, run on Derby Day instead of the second Saturday. Another even betting race presents.

Darren Weir stablemates Tosen Stardom and Luckly Hussler are the only two last start winners in the field, and are up the top of the betting accordingly.

Tosen Stardom won the Toorak Handicap in a race set up for him with genuine speed, while Lucky Hussler found his best off a strong tempo in the Crystal Mile last week, and is on the back-up.

There is very little speed in this race, on paper at least, and neither horse has been the most consistent in their time. They look like easy risks in this race.

The Toorak does look like the prime lead-up form though, providing a significant amount of runners.

Everyone’s favourite horse, Tom Melbourne, ran a very good sixth in the Toorak after doing a power of work early from a wide barrier, with Glen Boss electing to go forward on the star gelding. He hung on bravely in a race where the swoopers came from everywhere.

It’s been said before, but he’s the horse to beat. And, let’s face it, usually whatever beats him wins. Since Tom last saluted, he has run second seven times, all of them at black type level. He has become an outstanding galloper that gives his all, but circumstances continue to see him beaten.

He’ll likely box seat, if not be further forward than that, and 100,000 people at Flemington will be cheering him to hold on in the straight. Can the people’s champion deliver for the adoring masses?

Egg Tart and Omei Sword, stablemates to Tom Melbourne, but lacking his charisma and panache, also ran in the Toorak. Egg Tart has had a funny old prep, while Omei Sword doesn’t appear destined to deliver on her early promise.

Sovereign Nation is in outstanding form, having run second in the Toorak after being fourth in the Rupert Clarke. He’s likely to be there again down on the minimum, but how far back will he be on the inside, off a potentially moderate tempo?

Wyndspelle is having trouble making the leap to the big Group races, after some promising early spring form, and she has a habit of things not working out for her in the run.

So Si Bon didn’t run in the Toorak, but did run third in the Rupert Clarke and has put together a super consistent spring without winning. He’s a threat, but if he and Tom Melbourne clear out and drive to the line together, neither will know what to do given they are both allergic to winning.

This race might actually be a race for the maligned horses. Dibayani is another one. Since leaving Europe, he has raced 25 times in Hong Kong and Australia for no wins. In this time, he has run some outstanding races, particularly at 1600m – second to Winx in a Chipping Norton beaten a length and a half at WFA, third to Able Friend, second in an Epsom and a Villiers, third in a Feehan.

His two runs this prep have been sound, and he drops 5.5kg’s from his last start third where he put the writing on the wall. Watch this space.

Shillelagh couldn’t get a run in the Myer Classic, but was arguably the run of the day at Caulfield a fortnight ago, making ground out wide against the bias of the day in the Tristarc. She’s ready to win again, but things may not quite work out for her.

Sense of Occasion and McCreery come down from Sydney. The former doesn’t appear to be going well enough to concede some smart horses a fair bit of weight and still win. The latter ran second in this race last year, but was going better than he is now.

Horses like All Our Roads and Radipole are hard to entertain as anything more than blow-out chances, which is not to say they can’t run well and put in a career spike to be on the edge of the money. This has been a spring for knockout Group 1 winners.

Selections: 1.Tom Melbourne and Dibayani – dead heat 3.So Si Bon 4.Sovereign Nation

Myer Classic
And lastly of the Group 1s, we get to the Myer Classic for mares over 1600m, otherwise known as the quaddie killer. This race is renowned for throwing up big odds winners, and the same could easily happen again this year.

The Tristarc is usually a key lead-up race, and we find that again, with several runners being supplied from it.

Global Glamour won the race first up, which was a magnificent training feat. Yes, she had every favour on the day, but she still had to be tough enough and good enough to deliver. She is also a dual Group 1 winner and unbeaten at 1600m, and is drawn to get the run of the race. The one to beat.

Cool Passion was second in the Tristarc, which was a clear career best. Not sure if she can back that up again from a wide gate, and in a race that may not pan out as well for her.

Silent Sedition and Foxplay are Group 1 winning mares that didn’t have a lot of luck in the Tristarc. The former was wide on the speed with a big weight, while the latter never really got a crack at them and still finished close up. They are the class of the race.

Sword of Light won the Let’s Elope and Now or Later took out the Blazer before both failed to make an impression in the Tristarc with things against them. They can easily pop up with the right runs.

Flying Jess has been in excellent form in these mares races, without quite being able to win one. Prompt Response is another that fits that bill, and looks ready to peak now, but has drawn awkwardly. French Emotion isn’t quite doing enough, but is certainly better suited back to this weight scale given how often she has to carry more than her rivals.

The Sydney mares have hit the race en masse, as they always do, and as often as not one of them wins it.

Stablemates Dixie Blossoms and Daysee Doom are the standard-bearers for the mares races up north, and have finished alongside each other three races in a row, with each claiming one victory this prep. Dixie Blossoms has the slight edge here.

Heavens Above ran 10th in the Myer Classic last year, but might easily have won with even luck. It was that sort of race. She has since got her Group 1 win, and is ticking along far better than it looks on paper for mine. Leave her out of calculations at your peril.

Danish Twist hasn’t won for a year and a half, and has become a bit of a “next time” mare. That said, she can win. Eckstein pops up all over the country; her last seven races have been at seven different tracks. Doubt she has the class on firm ground to beat them all.

Last year’s Myer Classic winner, I Am A Star, fronts up again. She’s a terrific miler, particularly against her own sex – her 1600m record against mares is 5: 3-1-1, with all of those races at Group 1 or Group 2 level.

Last but not least, is the only filly in the race, Shoals. I Am A Star won this race after finishing second in the Thousand Guineas, and Shoals is looking to do the same. We have seen Aloisia come out and win again, and Shoals beat home Alizee there, who was setting the Sydney fillies races on fire. We might have three stars in that little group, and if so, Shoals is a huge player here.

This is almost the race of the day, which is saying something. There are so many talented mares in good form, some of which have been unlucky in recent times.

Selections: 1.Foxplay 2.Silent Sedition 3.I Am A Star 4.Heavens Above