The Group 1 Stradbroke Handicap (1350m) is one of the highlights of the Brisbane winter carnival and today’s edition promises to be another great race. Join us for commentary before the race start time of 3:37pm (AEST).
It looks an open race with plenty of chances in the running.
Here is my runner-by-runner assessment:
1. Boban
The top weight here was superb first up, winning the 10,000 and for the first time winning first up in his career following a spell. Will be a big challenge, especially considering the horse that came second that day (Charlie Boy) gets 5kg on Boban today.
2. Hot Snitzel
Won the BTC Cup first up and has had a barrier trial since. Loses 3kg from last start, could be about but others with similar form have better weight drops.
3. Sacred Star
Finished fifth in the 10,000 but drops 4kgs on that race, a consistent performer who has one of the best jockeys on his back. Will be around the finish, but I’ve left him out of my top four.
4. Smoking Joey
Drops 4kgs like many runners, but a 14th at Morphettville has got me right off this runner. Has surprised but just not for me here.
5. Generalife
Has to be right up there following a third in the 10,000. Drops 4.5kgs on that run and could be mighty hard to hold out if the form from that race stands up.
6. Temple of Boom
Has the fitness but not the form, could a drop in weight be a reason for an improvement here? It’s possible but others with better form are in the same boat.
7. Lord of the Sky
Was really solid first up in the Goodwood. Not proven over this distance though, and it won’t get wet enough. Only carrying 54kgs and has drawn a barrier to be competitive, can run a place.
8. Charlie Boy
Going for his fourth start here after a first in the BRC Sprint and a second in the 10,000. With the fitness and dropping 5kgs on that last start in the 10,000 he will be hard to beat.
9. Knoydart
Good form behind Hot Snitzel in the BTC Cup. Drops 5kgs on that run and his fourth in the 10,000. Along Charlie Boy he will be another tough challenger.
10. Big Money
Was blocked for a run in the 10,000 when finishing 11th. Could be around the finish with just 53.5kgs on his back, goes well at the track so if he can avoid getting blocked he could be in the finish.
11. Black Heart Bart
The Western Australian runner won five straight before finishing fourth in the Goodwood. He hasn’t been out of the quinella at this distance, but he was much better than the horses he was racing against. Drops 2kgs on the Goodwood run and will be competitive over the extra distance.
12. Fontelina
On current form I just can’t have.
13. El Roca
I don’t know what it is about El Roca but I keep being drawn to him. He has no form but drops to 53.5kgs, and loves it wet but I don’t think we will see it. At his best he could test these, I have him in my multiples for safety.
14. Srikandi
Won the Group 2 Smeg Victory Stakes but hasn’t shown a lot since. Finished sixth in the 10,000. Big chance with the weight drop, should be quite explosive.
15. Fast ‘N’ Rocking
Finished fifth behind Charlie Boy in the BRC sprint. Gets the 3.5kg swing on Charlie Boy from that race. Has a decent barrier in six so could be a big knockout chance at $34.
16. Delectation
Youngster who has shown quality with a second to Scissor Kick. Will drop 7kgs on last start. Could be anything so include in multiples, but others are stronger.
17. Lumosty
A weird situation where the first emergency is the favourite and unless something happens will not get a start. Has all the qualities to win.
Happy to take on any of the remaining emergencies if they get a start.
18. Rock Sturdy
19. Flamingo Star
20. Riva De Lago
21. Tried and Tied
In a hard race, anything could happen. I’ve gone for a bit of value and a knockout chance.
Selections
1. Charlie Boy 2. Knoydart 3. Big Money 4. Srikandi
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