Preview of AFL round 14 games (all times local).
FRIDAY, July 3
COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON at MCG, 7.40pm
Head to head: Collingwood 117 Essendon 97 Drawn 2
Last time: Essendon 13.15 (93) bt Collingwood 12.16 (88) R5, 2009, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Collingwood $1.55 Essendon $2.35
Sportingbet: Collingwood $1.55 Essendon $2.45
Second blockbuster in a row for Essendon and comes at just the right time after the Bombers humiliated Carlton last week on the big stage. Their younger players played up to the occasion and will be well prepared for the second outing. Sour note is Mark McVeigh’s suspension for staying out late drinking, coming a week after he was suspended for an on-field disciplinary indiscretion. Collingwood have made a run into fourth spot on the back of five straight wins and their spirits will be high. This one, though, will be an ice test for the Magpies.
Key: Alan Didak. Brilliant, tricky player who represents a problem for any side. A true matchwinner who will prove a handful for the Bombers.
Tip: Collingwood by 15 points
SATURDAY, July 4
MELBOURNE v WEST COAST at MCG, 2.10pm
Head to head: West Coast 24, Melbourne 14
Last time: West Coast 12.18 (90) bt Melbourne 13.4 (82) R7, 2009, Subiaco
TAB Sportsbet: Melbourne $2.10 West Coast $1.70
Sportingbet: Melbourne $2.22 West Coast $1.66
It’s difficult to look favourably on Melbourne for any encounter, save perhaps this one. Earlier this year the Demons lost to the Eagles by just eight points – and that was at West Coast’s home ground, Subiaco, where they generally deliver. But the Eagles are riding a dreadful 18-game losing streak away from Perth, a run dating way back to late 2007 when Chris Judd and Ben Cousins were still wearing blue and gold. The news that Melbourne president Jim Stynes is battling cancer is sure to provide a rallying point for the Demons. Much interest will focus on the performance of West Coast youngster Nic Naitanui, who has grabbed a stunning number of headlines in his opening two games.
Key: Until West Coast finally win an away game, you have to favour whoever it is they are playing. Even if it’s the Demons.
Tip: Melbourne by 15 points
PORT ADELAIDE v BRISBANE LIONS at AAMI Stadium, 2.40pm
Head to head: Port Adelaide 10 Brisbane 10 Drawn 2
Last time: Brisbane 18.16 (124) bt Port Adelaide 16.8 (104) R4, 2008, AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Port Adelaide $2.35 Brisbane $1.55
Sportingbet: Port Adelaide $2.50 Brisbane $1.53
Port Adelaide’s keenness to re-sign coach Mark Williams should have a settling effect on the side, which needs to break its losing streak now or forget about competing in September. Playing at AAMI will help the Power, but the Lions have shown they have little fear of the venue, winning there three times in the two sides’ past five clashes. Port have a lot to overcome in Brisbane, who are entrenched in the eight on the back of two successive wins and are eyeing a top-four spot. Both sides have key forwards capable of breaking open a game so the main factor will be who wrestles control in the midfield duels. Power forward Warren Tredrea must produce a trademark performance if the Power can win the ball out of the centre.
Key: The Port Power defence will have a lot to deal with trying to subdue in-form Lion forward Jonathan Brown, who has kicked nine goals in his past two matches.
Tip: Brisbane Lions by 16 points
RICHMOND v ADELAIDE at Carrara, 7.10pm
Head to head: Adelaide 17 Richmond 8 Drawn 1
Last time: Adelaide 16.12 (108) bt Richmond 6.9 (45) R19, 2008, AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Richmond $3.75 Adelaide $1.25
Sportingbet: Richmond $3.50 Adelaide $1.30
Bright start under caretaker coach Jade Rawlings quickly snuffed out with the Tigers brought back to earth by St Kilda. Look to have already done enough to avoid the wooden spoon but it’s hard to see them doing anything but treading water for the remainder of the year. The dismal record won’t inspire much confidence in the Tigers camp either – of the past 12 games between the two, Richmond have lost 11. Their only win was by three points in round eight, 2006. Adelaide are in dangerous form with five wins on end and what should be a routine win here will solidify them in the top eight. The Crows look to have the upper hand at every line across the ground and especially up forward with Jason Porplyzia continuing to confound the enemy defences.
Key: Richmond must step up in the midfield – their inside 50 pushes last week were few and far between, giving themselves no chance to apply any scoreboard pressure.
Tip: Adelaide by 35 points
WESTERN BULLDOGS v HAWTHORN at Etihad Stadium, 7.10pm
Head to head: Bulldogs 73 Hawthorn 73 Drawn 2
Last time: Hawthorn 18.19 (127) bt Bulldogs 11.10 (76) 2QF 2008, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Bulldogs $1.40 Hawthorn $2.80
Sportingbet: Bulldogs $1.43 Hawthorn $2.85
Rodney Eade believes the Bulldogs are on the way towards closing the gap to the top two, St Kilda and Geelong, and it’s difficult to argue against that. The Dogs have outright third place and four wins in a row but face challenges in the coming weeks against Collingwood and Essendon before they are able to judge their true state, when they meet the Saints in round 17. The Dogs’ runners are likely to leave the struggling Hawks flat-footed – their midfielders have become a fearsome group – and belie the truism a team must have a dominant tall forward. Hawthorn’s premiership defence is in tatters, beset by poor form and not helped by injuries. The Hawks are at the crossroads and nothing short of a complete reversal in the second half of the year will give them any hope – even if they scrape into the eight they are no match for the pacesetters.
Key: Hawthorn’s kew forwards, Jarryd Roughead and Lance Franklin, have not been the damaging duo they were last year, but sparked up last week and will need to be kept under control by an able Dogs backline.
Tip: Western Bulldogs by 15 points
SUNDAY, July 5
SYDNEY v NORTH MELBOURNE at SCG, 1.10pm
Head to head: Sydney 75 North Melbourne 71 Drawn 1
Last time: Sydney 17.8 (110) bt North Melbourne 11.9 (75) 2EF 2008, ANZ Stadium.
TAB Sportsbet: Sydney $1.30 North Melbourne $3.30
Sportingbet: Sydney $1.32 North Melbourne $3.40
Both sides have fallen a long way since they met in last year’s elimination final at ANZ Stadium (when Sydney won by 35 points). Following the departure of Dean Laidley, the Kangaroos have come under the guidance of caretaker coach Darren Crocker, whose expectations can be no more than “steady as you go” for the rest of the season. Sydney has again been burdened with Barry Hall’s uncontrollable temper. He will miss due to suspension for yet another striking charge and, as important as he is in the forward line, the Swans have certainly just about lost patience with him. Michael O’Loughlin has announced his retirement and the Swans are now needing the next generation to step up as quickly as possible.
Key: Young Liam Anthony has been a positive and Brent Harvey is always a headache in the midfield, but the Swans should have more across the board.
Tip: Sydney by 20 points
ST KILDA v GEELONG at Etihad Stadium, 3.10pm
Head to head: Geelong 121 St Kilda 79
Last time: Geelong 17.17 (119) bt St Kilda 8.13 (61) 1QF 2008, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: St Kilda $2.35 Geelong $1.55
Sportingbet: St Kilda $2.40 Geelong $1.57
Surely the most anticipated match of the year won’t prove to be a fizzer? The last time the pair met, in the first qualifying final last year it was. Geelong cruised to a 58-point win. This will be an intriguing test of how far the Saints have come since that disappointing game. Both sides are unbeaten with St Kilda at the top of the ladder on percentage, but if Geelong repeats their 2008 belting it will likely be a solid pointer to this year’s premiership. The Cats have been criticised for taking their foot off the pedal in recent games, but coach Mark Thompson is unfazed, saying they are doing all they need to to win. Whatever he says, Saints skipper Nick Riewoldt will be out to exert his authority over Cat defender Harry Taylor, who doused him last time. There are other exciting match-ups all over the park.
Key: Gary Ablett, Joel Corey, Joel Selwood and Cameron Ling in the midfield, Matthew Scarlett down back, Cameron Mooney … it’s improbable St Kilda have the arsenal to counter this sort of class.
Tip: Geelong by 15 points
FREMANTLE v CARLTON at Subiaco, 2.40pm
Head to head: Fremantle 12 Carlton 9
Last time: Fremantle 13.10 (88) bt Carlton 11.15 (81) R7, 2009, Carrara
TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $2.35 Carlton $1.55
Sportingbet: Fremantle $2.45 Carlton $1.55
Carlton are reeling from last week’s upset at the hands of Essendon but they will still be focused enough to deal with the Dockers. However they will have to regroup quickly because Fremantle, at home at Subiaco, can never be counted out. The Blues promised to wield the axe at the selection table following the loss to Essendon. In their favour as they attempt to rebound is the fact the Dockers have lost their main goalscoring weapon, Matthew Pavlich, who has succumbed to a calf injury. Dean Solomon will also miss after being suspended by the club for a night on the drink with former Bombers teammate Mark McVeigh. Fremantle have had the wood over Carlton in recent games and notched a seven point win when they met earlier this year at Carrara.
Key: The Blues must capitalise on Fremantle’s sudden vulnerability up forward by making sure Brendan Fevola gets every opportunity and hoping he’s on target.
Tip: Carlton by 15 points
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