It’s hard to see how anyone is going to beat New Zealand at this year’s World Cup. But then again, that’s been said pretty much every four years since 1987, and the mighty All Blacks haven’t won a World Cup since.
Having said that, they are the benchmark for this year’s World Cup and to win it you need a team that is capable of beating a team that was all but unstoppable in 2010, but for a minor blip in Hong Kong.
A lot can change in a year though – remember how South Africa dominated the competition in 2009? And how did they do in 2010?
As much as I’d like to think it will be the Wallabies’ year in 2011, I very much doubt the All Blacks will fall from grace the way South Africa did last year. In fact, the emergence of several new stars in an already star-studded line-up will quite probably make them an even bigger handful this year.
All the hype about the Wallaby backline will most certainly be put to the test. Despite an abundance of talent, there are areas of vulnerability that could be exposed without someone like an in-form Stirling Mortlock in the line-up.
To be clear, I’m not saying his current form is enough to warrant a spot in the squad, let alone the starting line-up, but he is improving with every game and my assertion is that if he does get back to even a slightly slower version of his former best, then he should be strongly considered for the following reasons:
1. Size. At 6’3″ and 100kgs, Stirlo is a big guy. A good two-inch and about 10kg heavier than the average back in the current line-up. Size may not be everything but rugby is a physical game, and it’s always good to have a big bloke on your side.
New Zealand have three monsters: Ma’a Nonu, Sonny Bill Williams and Robbie Fruean. Even Conrad Smith is bigger than almost anyone in the Aussie back-line.
2. Defence. Aside from Quade Cooper, this hasn’t been exposed as a particular weakness across the Aussie backs. They all (excluding Quade) seem to hold their own quite comfortably, however there is a difference between tackling someone and smashing someone. The latter hurts and more importantly makes you think twice about running hard again.
So far, I haven’t seen anyone capable of putting in the kind of bone-crunching hits that Mortlock is renowned for.
3. Vision. He reads the game like a book. Part of what makes him so good in defence is his ability to read the opposition, know where the next pass is going and lineup the reciever with precision and timing.
Sure, he doesn’t have the pace he used to but he’s starting to show he can still line ’em up and knock ’em down! Cooper, Beale and O’Connor also have great vision, however their strengths are more in attack than defence.
4. Experience. Aside from Giteau, who hasn’t exactly been setting the world on fire with his performances of late, none of the Wallaby backs have played in a World Cup past the first knock-out round. Pressure grows exponentially at this point and this is where I believe Mortlock could really make a difference.
The forwards have a great mix of youth and experience, with guys like Sharpie playing at his peak and the backs could do with the same.
Assuming Mortlock does continue his ascendency to peak form, I’d love to see the following run-on for Australia at the RWC:
9. Genia (battle between Phipps and Burgess for the back-up option. Deans seems to really like Burgess, but Phipps is giving him something to think about).
10. Cooper. O’Connor has been outstanding lately, but can you really justify leaving out a match-winner like Quade when JOC can be just as effective at 12 (and possibly even more devastating with Quade on his inside?).
12. O’Connor.
13. Mortlock!
11 and 14. Digby must own one of these spots but the other could go to anyone from Mitchell, Turner, Rockin’ Rod. Cummings is putting his hand up, so who knows?
15. Beale.
Reserves:
16. Could argue that AAC should start at 13 and Mortlock off the bench but I prefer it this way around as Mortlock’s hard hitting is best used up-front to set the tone of the game. And what a guy to have off the bench!
17. Giteau. Debatable form but given the size of his contract I’m sure he’ll get a run, and I think off the bench would be the best way to get his ego under control and his performances back to the Giteau of old. And what a guy to have off the bench!
18. Not a fan of picking a second half-back on the bench but can’t pick a third sub at this stage as the rest are fairly evenly matched, in my opinion. One of the wingers mentioned above? Faingaa perhaps? I’m sure there are many worthy candidates.
At the end of the day, the Wallabies are currently ranked second in the world behind arguably the most successful sporting team of all-time.
That’s nothing to be ashamed about and frankly quite impressive given that rugby is our third or fourth winter sport, and we’re the only country of the top five or six nations that doesn’t have a professional domestic competition!
The reality is that we’re simply not as good as the All Blacks. But we’re getting better; that win/loss ratio will undoubtedly improve and there is a real chance that one of those wins could come in the final of the RWC.
Be positive and believe in it.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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