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Speaking with a mate of mine in State of Origin Camp Maroon was enlightening: he didn’t sound as cocky as normal. To be honest, he sounded reserved and a tinge worried.
If you have only ever watched the last two State of Origin games between Queensland and NSW and had no knowledge of the history or the greatness of some of the players, you would be forgiven if you expected the Blues to be the bookies favourite for the series deciding game on Wednesday night on July 6th.
Not so. The Queenslanders are favourite for Origin game three, similar to game two, and recent form holds no sway over a pending fairy tale.
The Maroons have won the last five series but after winning game one 16-8 and going down in game two 12-18 they find themselves with a real fight on their hands.
The stage is set to be the most watched sporting event so far this year and will be played in front of a sold out parochial Queensland crowd.
Ahh, don’t forget the romance and the ace that Queenslanders will be hoping will make the difference.
It is living legend Darryn Lockyer’s final Origin game which is certain to add a little extra grunt in the hit ups.
Locky’s lovable giant Petero Civoniceva is also expected to call it a day which all adds up to the finish of a best-selling novel, except the expected Queensland win is a long way from a guaranteed number in the frame.
This is why my friend is worried.
His beloved players have only been able to score five tries so far in 2011 and have been unable to score more than 16 points in a game. In Sydney, the athletic Blues with greater speed and fitness, conceded only a measly 12 points.
An examination of the second half stats underline why the Blues won game two and why the Maroons may not play out a fairy tale in Brisbane.
Both teams showed amazing control for the initial 40 minutes, but the Blues were able to bustle the Maroons so much in the second half that they made nine errors after only conceding a single error in the first half.
Locky’s men missed 12 more tackles in the last half than the Blues which meant Paul Gallen’s men were able to make 12 more tackle busts, two of which led to tries.
My buddy is close to Billy Slater and I reminded him that the world’s best fullback had a shocker and was responsible for two of the Blues tries.
He assured me: “Billy is a very proud person and he never has two bad games in a row”.
We discussed the fact that it was a “skinny” ten metres in Sydney and Inglis, Lockyer and Thurston had no room to move.
This was a major factor in the faster Blues forwards controlling the middle third of the slippery ANZ Stadium. We can count on game three being more open and a genuine ten metres by the two referees expected to be Shayne Hayne and Tony Archer.
I pointed out that the Blues had a far superior forward pack and bench who were all 80 minute players and as well as being hard workers who could also be dangerous in attack.
The Maroon starting back row of Harrison, Thaiday and Myles have yet to worry Gallen’s men. Parker and Taylor have both been excellent off the bench and based on Sydney form should push for a starting position. Back up prop Hannant is another forward who has not ruffled any feathers.
Even champion props Matthew Scott (37m) and Petero Civoniceva (33m) were restricted in a rare display.
It is unlikely that Camp Maroon will call in Crocker, Costigan or Johnson who have all served their state well. Hodges, arguably the world’s best centre, will come in for Nielsen further boosting the right attack and giving the shaky defence a more formidable feel.
I told my mate that NSW have one third of the country’s population compared to Queensland’s one fifth, so it was about time they won a series.
“They know what they did wrong in Sydney and I don’t think that will happen again”, he replied.
Lewis and Langer both said goodbye with a final series win and Locky and Petero deserve no less, but regardless of the final chapter it has been a fairy tale for the ages.
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