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This weekend’s clash between the Reds and Crusaders should be an epic battle. Both teams have played outstanding rugby throughout the tournament and deserve to be in the final.
Both teams are materially at full strength, and in great form following strong performances in their respective semi-finals.
Both teams boast a number of key Wallabies/All Blacks, and in a World Cup year, this game will be watched by many as a preview of things to come.
But how much will this game tell us about the Wallabies’ and All Blacks’ prospects?
In my view, it will tell us more about the All Blacks than it will about the Wallabies, and the reason for this is simply based on the composition of All Blacks/Wallabies in each team.
I’ve split these into definites, probables and possibles for each team:
REDS
Definites:
James Horwill, Will Genia, Quade Cooper and Digby Ioane
Probables:
James Slipper – likely to be on the bench as cover for Benn Robinson & Sekope Kepu
Scott Higginbotham – likely to be on the bench as cover for Pocock/Elsom
Beau Robinson – likely to be on the bench as cover for Pocock/Elsom
Possibles:
Anthony Faingaa – I don’t think anyone knows what Deans is going to do with the centres pairing but A.Faingaa’s defence has been too good to ignore. Must be an option.
Rocket Rod – 3 tries in the Semi surely puts him in contention for a wing spot (bench at best though).
Rob Simmons – suspect he’ll have to get in line behind Horwill, Sharpe & Vickerman (like it or not, it’s clear Deans is going to give Vicks every chance to get back into the side)
Radike Samo – had a ripper season but can’t see him getting ahead of Palu & McCalman
Mike Harris
Luke Morahan
CRUSADERS:
Definites:
Owen Franks, Ben Franks (one of them will play off the bench), Corey Flynn (will be used as reserve hooker when old Mealamu needs a rest), Brad Thorn, Sam Whitelock (Sam will either start or come off the bench for Tom Donnelly), Richie McCaw, Kieran Read, Dan Carter, Sonny-Bill Williams.
Probables:
Israel Dagg (reserve fullback for Mils & wing cover)
Sean Maitland (wasn’t in the frame last year but his form in 2011 surely warrants a starting spot ahead of Cory Jane)
Matt Todd – had been outstanding in McCaw’s absence
Possibles:
Zac Guilford
Robbie Fruean
I’m sure there will be many opinions about my selections above, but that’s beside the point.
The point is that the Reds have, at best, 1-2 starting Wallabies in their forward pack, and a reserve prop and back-rower. The Crusaders practically own the All Blacks front row, with the Franks brothers and Corey Flynn, second row with Thorn and Whitelock and majority of the back row, with Richie McCaw, Kieran Read and Matt Todd.
If the old saying that “forwards win matches, backs determine by how much” is true, then the game is most certainly the Crusaders’ for the taking. If that’s not enough, the Crusaders have almost the entire starting or reserve All Black back line as well!
Hence my assertion that the Crusaders performance will tell us more about the All Blacks than the Reds will tell us about the Wallabies.
On that basis, the Crusaders should romp this one home and make a real statement. After all, the Crusaders have the core of the All Blacks starting 15 and 22 – the same All Blacks that thumped the Wallabies and Springboks.
And now they’re playing a “mere” club side with a handful of Wallabies (who they thrashed last year, anyway) so this should be a walk in the park.
So what if they lose?
Well, for starters, alarm bells should start ringing around Kiwi-land. Sure the Crusaders have had to do it tough travelling all over the place this year, will possibly be a little jet-lagged from the round-trip journey to South Africa, and will be playing away from their home crowd.
These are all issues the All Blacks will not have to face in the World Cup.
But will that be enough to counter the “Reds on steroids” (aka the Wallabies) with the addition of match-winners like TPN, Pocock, Palu, O’Connor and Beale, plus upgrades such as Robinson, Kepu, Sharpe, and Vickerman?
Time will tell.
But win or lose, Reds and Wallabies supporters should be very proud of what has been achieved so far this year and look forward to an exciting Tri-Nations and World Cup.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.