After signing a new nine year TV contract extension with the NFL this week, an elated Fox Sports executive commented that the NFL is the best reality show on TV.
And in the NFL at the moment the biggest star of that reality show would be the Denver Broncos QB Tim Tebow.
The Tebow show will host Tom Brady and the New England Patriots this morning in one of the most anticipated games of the year.
There have been few sportsmen this year in U.S sports that have evoked as much reactions, both positive and negative, as Tim Tebow.
So much so that Tebow has inspired two huge internet viral sensations over the last couple of months. The first and biggest came close to rivalling planking as the new internet craze, simply called Tebowing.
Inspired by Tebow himself, a devout Christian, the move mimics how the football star drops to one knee and pauses with a hand resting on his forehead as he prays.
The other viral episode occurred on the ESPN site six weeks ago when the readers comments to a blog on Tebow went into hyperdrive, and is still seeing comments posted.
ESPN recorded more traffic than any other story it has ever run.
Just some examples were:
Forrest Gump > Tebow
“Murder she wrote” > Tebow
Legally marrying a McRib sandwich > Tebow
Most significantly though is the effect Tebow is having on his opponents both on and off the field. Could it be some of the Tebow aura has helped the Broncos to so many improbable come from behind victories?
Miami Dolphins’ linebacker Karlos Dansby played on the Dolphins team that blew a 15-0 lead in the last quarter in Tebow’s first start eight weeks ago.
Last week Dansby came out and said that he and some of his teammates believe that God is working through Tebow and that was the reason behind the Dolphins’s loss to the Broncos.
Dansby said to NBC Sports, “Young man is blessed. Young man has a special anointing on him. And for God to show himself in that game the way He did, through the guy He did it through, it opened a lot of guys’ eyes on our team. And it brought a lot of guys closer to God, so like I said, everything happens for a reason… My hat goes off to Tim. And God working through him like that, it opened up a lot of eyes.”
What Dansby failed to acknowledge was that had he held on to an absolute sitter of an interception throw by Tebow in the first half of that game and returned it for a touchdown, as the open field ahead of him would have seen him do, Tebow may never have led the Broncos to the win.
Tebow was so ineffective in the first three and a half quarters of that game, that he may have not even started the following week had they lost.
Even last Sunday against the Chicago Bears you could see evidence of Tebow’s possible effect on his opponents. The NFL Network wired Tebow up for the game and just before the start of the game it showed Tebow chatting with Chicago Bears’ linebackers Lance Brigss and Brian Urlacher.
Now these two guys are two of the toughest players in the League and you would expect both to give a young quarterback some stern advice in response to his pesky pre-game comments.
When Tebow asked fellow Florida alumni Urlacher if he ever gets the chance to get back to Florida, I expected Urlacher to reply in his loud coarse guttural voice, “just you worry about me ripping your head off you young punk!!”, instead Urlacher quietly replied, “yeah I go back there to fish twenty times a year. I love it there.”
I almost expected Urlacher to describe the beautiful sunset. Not exactly putting the fear of God into a young quarterback.
But maybe the biggest influence Tebow is having on his opponents is on the way the opposing defensive coaches plan against him.
The Broncos are 7-1 since Tebow took over as starter after they started the season 1-4. Most of those victories have been improbable fourth quarter come from behind victories.
All seven of those victories have seen the Broncos come from behind in the second half, the last five they have trailed in the fourth quarter . Usually the Broncos and Tebow have been inept offensively for the first three and a half quarters, relying on their defence to keep them in the game.
A breakdown of Tebow’s stats by half and by quarter gives an idea of the transformation that occurs.
%passes completed TDs 1st Downs completed % Passes > 20 yds QB rating
1st Half 39% 2 18% 3 54
2nd Half 53% 9 35% 16 101
Quarters %passes completed TD 1st downs completed Passes > 20 yds Yds
1st Qtr 48.3 1 7 3 171
2nd Qtr 33.3 1 6 0 107
3rd Qtr 37.5 3 9 5 242
4th Qtr 61.3 6 33 11 732
There have always been doubts on Tebow’s passing ability, even after an illustrious college career. Many acknowledged what a great running quarterback he was but doubted he would succeed in the NFL where dual threat quaterbacks have not been as successful.
In most of Tebow’s starts his passing has at times been very inaccurate. Opposing defences have planned for their defences to keep constant pressure on Tebow. Send 4-5 rushers at every down, try and keep Tebow in the pocket and stop him running to his left to complete passes as he loves to do.
Defences also play the cornerbacks close to the receivers and usually play one of the safeties close to the line of scrimmage.
The theory is that the aggressive pressure will force Tebow to make mistakes and if he wants to go deep his inaccuracy will result in more incompletions than completions.
And for most of the game this plan works, the Broncos many times unable to score more than a field goal for the first three quarters.
Yet recent teams to lose against the Broncos such as the New York Jets, San Diego Chargers and the Bears, have inexplicably changed their successful plans in the fourth quarter to try and maintain their slender leads.
Whereas earlier in the game the defence was more aggressive, once the fourth quarter hits, these defences start to become more conservative. They drop their safeties deeper, the Bears on Sunday for example dropping them nearly 25 yards behind the line of scrimmage. The cornerbacks back off on the receivers allowing the receivers more space to cut back on their routes.
This makes it easier for Tebow to complete his passes, happy to complete short to medium passes and give them the chance to turn them into bigger plays. A lot of those 20+ yds plays in the fourth quarter are from short medium passes.
The defensive line and linebackers also become less aggressive allowing Tebow to escape the pocket to complete his passes. This is exactly what happened in the last five minutes of last Sunday’s game against the Bears with both of their safeties pulled way back and too far to have any impact of any of the plays.
Make no mistake, in fairness to Tebow, his performances have improved and he probably played his best game two weeks ago against the Vikings where the Broncos posted a season high 32 points. And against the Bears his receivers dropped some very easy catches. Yet he still missed many gettable passes and had at one stage completed just 3 from 16 passes.
Now it is somewhat common to see teams become a bit more conservative to protect leads but when you have a quarterback like Tebow that struggles greatly against a more aggressive defence it’s hard to justify such conservatism especially as the scores are so close. Or against a quarterback who has completed just 3 of 16 passes and has the lowest completion percentage in the NFL.
To use an AFL analogy, it’s similar to tagging the opposition’s dangerous key midfielder for tree quarters and who has shown in the past to be ineffective against a tagging, then trying to protect a small lead in the fourth quarter by releasing the tag and flooding the back line.
Tebow’s comebacks have inspired his teammates and it’s almost like his teammates just expect it to happen no matter how badly they have previously played. But it also now seems to be like his opponents tend to think that a comeback is inevitable and they plan accordingly. The effect of Tebow is maybe more than just on field, that as the hype builds, the mental effect on opponents plays a bigger factor.
It will interesting to see if Bill Belicheck and his Patriots react in the same situation tomorrow, especially as the the Patriots defence is not as strong as past Broncos’ opponents.
Then again if Pats’ quarterback Tom Brady is successful early and often, it may not matter.
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