It’s playoff time in the National Football League, but who is going to face off for the Lombardi trophy on the first Sunday in February? Nobody knows for sure, but hopefully I can provide a bit of clarity on each team’s chances, and which bandwagon you should jump on.
Today I’ll look at the AFC, before moving on to the NFC tomorrow.
One Seed – New England Patriots
A regular feature atop the AFC East (they’ve won the division every year since 2002, bar once when they lost in a tiebreak), the Patriots will enjoy a week off and home field advantage throughout the playoffs, courtesy of a 49-21 win on the last day of the season. After going down 21-0 to the Buffalo Bills, you may have thought there was a chance for the AFC North’s winning team to leapfrog the Patriots to the top spot, but 49 unanswered points quickly shot down any dreams the Ravens (or at that point, Steelers) may have had.
But this result is really a microcosm of what we’ve seen from the Pats all year. An offence so potent at times it looks like a kid playing Madden on the rookie setting, but too often let down by a shaky defence. Despite being the top seed, of the AFC playoff teams, only the Denver Broncos have conceded more points.
Playoff outlook: A week off, then they will host either Cincinnati if the latter beat Houston, or if the Texans win that one, New England will play the winner of the Denver-Pittsburgh game. They already lost to Pittsburgh at Foxboro this year and will be praying for a Denver upset, or a Bengals win in round one over Houston. From there, they could potentially have to host the Ravens or Steelers in the Championship game.
Two Seed – Baltimore Ravens
Finally, Coach Harbaugh conquered the mountain that is the Pittsburgh Steelers on the way to clinching the Ravens’ first AFC North title since 2006, and only its third ever. Baltimore did this by maintaining excellent home form throughout (winning all eight of their games at M&T Bank Stadium) and for the first time ever, sweeping the division; beating the Steelers, Browns and Bengals twice each. The last of these results was yesterday when a pair of long Ray Rice touchdowns was enough to grab the road win, 24-16.
Speaking of road wins, that’s where the Ravens have struggled this year. They lost at Seattle, Tennessee, San Diego and Jacksonville. Only one of those teams finished the season with a winning record, and none made the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Ravens’ only two road trips to playoff teams were victories: yesterday’s win over the Bengals, and their last-minute victory over Pittsburgh at Heinz Field, where rookie Torrey Smith announced himself to the world by catching the match-winning pass on prime-time Sunday Night Football.
Playoff outlook: They’ll also enjoy a bye week, before taking on Houston (if the latter beat Cincinnati) or the winner of Denver-Pittsburgh if that game in Texas goes the way of the Bengals.
As I mentioned, the Ravens are a real Jekyll and Hyde team when it comes to home and away games, and if somebody can upset New England in week two, then all roads will go through Baltimore. The Ravens will have a great shot at getting Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed and co. that Super Bowl victory.
Three Seed – Houston Texans
The next two teams have a lot in common; both limped into the playoffs on the back of a losing streak, anaemic offence (although on the part of Texans, this is mostly due to injuries) and an excellent defensive unit.
Let’s talk about the Texans first. It’s an exciting time to be a Houston fan given it’s the first time they’ve ever made the playoffs, needing an injury to Peyton Manning to finally pass the Colts. Not only is it their first AFC South crown, it’s only the second time the team has posted a winning record.
However, they lost their last three games including a 23-22 loss to the Titans yesterday (although to be fair, they went for a two point conversion after scoring a touchdown with seconds remaining, when an extra point could have sent it into overtime)
But they will be without quarterback Matt Schaub, while stud receiver Andre Johnson is only now making his way back from a hamstring problem, and with a slew of other injuries, you could be forgiven for thinking that a team that looked so promising a couple of months ago is just going to be cannon fodder for the Ravens.
And that’s if they can get past round one. That said, any team with Arian Foster in it can do some damage, and Schaub’s replacement, rookie T.J. Yates, did have a 300-yard passing game against the Bengals earlier this year.
Playoff outlook: A home match-up with the Bengals to start things off, and if they win that they will visit Baltimore, a team that has never lost to Houston and has only lost three games at home in the last three years. A daunting task without many of their stars, and if any team has the right to blame injuries for the way their season will end, it’s Houston.
Four Seed – Denver Broncos
Tebowmania has officially hit the skids – it was defendable against the Patriots where he played well but the defence let them down, and even last week against Buffalo when all of his interceptions came in the second half while the Broncos were in catch-up mode.
But in a 7-3 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, Tebow displayed every flaw that critics had pointed out, and everything that was looking so promising for the former Florida hero a month ago is suddenly falling apart.
Nevertheless, the Broncos snuck into the playoffs in a three-way tie for top spot in the AFC West, winning the tiebreaker over the Chargers and Raiders. Despite a 1-4 start to the season with Kyle Orton under centre, Tebow took over, and with three consecutive losses finishes the regular season with a 7-4 record as a starter. What is worrying is that in those seven victories, none came against teams that will feature in the post-season, or even finish with winning records.
Tebow only had to face two playoff teams in his 11 games as a starter, losing to Detroit and New England by a combined score of 86-33. They will host Pittsburgh this weekend, and although John Fox has worked a few miracles so far with his young quarterback, it looks like teams have finally figured them out. Few will benefit more from a full offseason than Denver, and indeed Tebow.
Playoff outlook: As a Ravens fan and a Tebow fanboy, I’d love to see him embarrass the Steelers, but it’s unlikely. If they somehow do, a trip to Baltimore or New England awaits, teams with one home loss between them this year. It’s probably a moot point, but which of these would be more favourable for Denver? We know Tebow can score points against New England but we also know their defence can’t stop Tom Brady, while it’s not impossible to halt Joe Flacco and the Ravens. But can you see Denver scoring more than 10 points on that vaunted Ravens defence? I can’t.
Five Seed – Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite having the equal-second record in the AFC, the Steelers will have to be content with a wildcard spot after losing both regular season games to the Baltimore Ravens. A dull contest with Cleveland saw them run out 13-9 winners yesterday, but it mattered little as their rivals in purple also got the victory. The big question all week will be the fitness of Ben Roethlisberger, who has battled a swathe of injuries all season, and was inactive last week before returning to face the Browns, despite his high ankle sprain.
There’s a clear downgrade from Big Ben to Charlie Batch, and Pittsburgh fans will be especially anxious to learn the fate of their quarterback following news that Rashard Mendenhall will miss next week’s game; the prospect of having to go on the road in the playoffs with their offence based around Batch and Issac Redman can’t fill the Steelers with glee, no matter how good their defence.
Playoff outlook: After they attempt to go to Mile High and crash the Tebow bandwagon, they’d either have to go to New England or Baltimore. They beat the Patriots away from home earlier this year and they know they have the wood over the Ravens when it comes to playoff games. Oh, and by the way, the last time Pittsburgh entered the post-season as a wild card, they won the Super Bowl. They may do so again.
Six Seed – Cincinnati Bengals
Well, it’s official. The AFC North is the strongest division in the National Football League, with three of the six playoff teams from the red side of the bracket coming out of the North. I’m not sure what to make of the Bengals – they lost four times to the Steelers and Ravens and didn’t beat a playoff team in their seven attempts (losing twice to their division rivals, as well as Denver, San Francisco and Houston).
That said, what this team has done this year is nothing short of amazing. Picked by many to drop behind even Cleveland in the pecking order, to not only finish with a winning record but also get to the post-season is a great result. Two rookies, quarterback Andy Dalton and receiver A.J. Green, have been instrumental in the success, the pair combining for seven touchdowns.
Green has 1000 yards in the air while Dalton has thrown for over 3000 with a quarterback rating of just over 80. If these two can keep the connection going we could have a quarterback/wide receiver partnership on the same level as Stafford and Johnson, Brady and Welker or Manning and Wayne.
Playoff outlook: At Houston, at New England and at Baltimore, Pittsburgh, or Denver is the road the Bengals will have to take to get to the Lucas Oil Dome in Indianapolis. Unfortunately for them, their struggle to overcome teams with winning records will really come back to bite them here, and if they do get through Houston, I can’t see them being able to keep up with the Pats in the shootout that would develop.
My predictions (home team in caps):
Wild card
Pittsburgh d. DENVER
HOUSTON d. Cincinnati
Division
BALTIMORE d. Houston
Pittsburgh d. NEW ENGLAND
AFC Championship Game:
BALTIMORE d. Pittsburgh
Perhaps a slight tinge of bias in my predictions, but if there’s a time to be biased, it’s the playoffs!
Be sure to check back for my NFC playoff preview.
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