With three weeks to go in the NFL season a number of players are in position to break major league records.
At 1600 yards rushing the Vikings Adrian Peterson is well paced to become the seventh back to rush for over 2000 yards and with the incredible form that he is running with, it seems a realistic possibility to break Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 yards in a season.
In Detroit Calvin Johnson has 1,546 receiving and if he keeps pace with his average will break Jerry Rice’s 1,848 yards despite his disappointing number of touchdowns.
Finally, Aldon Smith of the San Francisco 49ers has 19.5 sacks and only needs one in each of his final three games to tie Michael Strahan’s record.
Of these, Smith seems the most likely to break the record that he is currently chasing but only Peterson is in the conversation as the league MVP.
The MVP clearly should be a contest between four players. Peterson, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers are in the midst of fantastic seasons with each possessing a different argument for why they should be considered MVP.
Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings): 265 Attempts, 1600 yards, 10 touchdowns
After a gruesome injury in the dying weeks of the 2011 season that saw Peterson tear his ACL and MCL ligaments, there was a perfectly legitimate question raised in the offseason on whether we had seen the best of his career already.
Peterson emphatically proved doubters wrong and is playing the best football of his entire career. Peterson is currently 334 rushing yards ahead of Marshawn Lynch in second place.
What is most remarkable about Peterson’s season is the complete lack of offensive support to divert defensive attention away from the Vikings running game.
After a positive start the Vikings passing attack has moved from having an optimistic outlook to absolutely atrocious one.
Since October 21, Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder has thrown for over 160 yards only twice, with three games throwing for under 100 yards despite almost always having an overloaded box of defenders aiming to stop the run.
Despite this single minded approach defences have Peterson is running better and better with his season finding its apex last week with Peterson running for 210 yards against a Chicago Bears defence that looked to be one of the best units in the entire league.
Peterson’s recovery from injury is one of the most spectacular returns seen in years. Because he sustained the injury so late in 2011, it was a reasonable forecast to picture Peterson missing the entire season.
Peterson was in shape and recovered astonishingly early and every anecdote surrounding his recovery includes the fact that the medical staff supervising his rehabilitation had never seen any recovery near as rapid, thanks to Peterson’s singular will to find himself back on the field.
The one criticism that can be levelled against Peterson is that despite his excellence, the Vikings are 7-6 and most likely will be shut out of the playoffs.
This is a rather unfair criticism to make towards Peterson’s candidacy as the Vikings would be near the cellar of the entire league without number 28.
This preoccupation with winning as the only meaningful statistic misses the point that Peterson is playing the position of running back at the highest level seen since Ladanian Tomlinson was at his peak and is doing the most to actually highlight the position as relevant in a league that has rendered star value in running backs as meaningless and of little value.
Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos): 330/483 Completions/Attempts, 3,812 Yards, 30 touchdowns, 10 Ints
Much like Peterson, Manning received an injury that questioned if he would ever return to play in the NFL again. At 36 and after four neck surgeries and 18 months spent out of the game Manning returned with less then emphatic play and looked to still have lingering effects from his time off.
After a 2-3 start Manning appears to have shed his rust and is in vintage form and has the Broncos looking very strong. They are in the midst of an eight game winning streak and the division is wrapped up.
With the Texans stumbling against the Patriots, Manning will have the Broncos aiming for the top seed in the playoffs and home field throughout.
The criticisms against Manning have considerable merit compared to the other candidates. Firstly, the Broncos have had a very easy schedule.
The AFC West is down from a season past with the Raiders, Chiefs and Chargers among the biggest disappointments of the 2012 season.
The collective weakness of these teams has seen the Broncos coast to an undefeated mark in division (they are currently 5-0 with a game against Kansas City in week 17 to come).
Outside of the division, the Broncos only have three victories over teams with winning records while also having their three losses to teams in the positive column.
Their victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one appears less impressive. However, their victory over Cincinnati appears far more impressive now.
Although the Broncos losses were early in the season, they were not nearly competitive and Manning had to stage furious comebacks to flatter the scoreboard.
The second criticism of Manning’s candidacy is the support the Broncos defence has given the team. The Broncos defence currently ranks seventh in pass defence, sixth in run defence for a total yards and points allowed ranked at fourth.
Manning is not asked to do a considerable amount to lead the Broncos to victory and thus the term “value” when applied to Manning is a less significant than compared to Peterson or Aaron Rodgers.
Manning’s candidacy appears to be both media driven and influenced by his return from injury as he clearly is not the undisputed standout that he is being portrayed as.
Tom Brady (New England Patriots): 319/495, 3,833 Yards, 29 touchdowns, 4 Ints
There seems to be a constant in the NFL and that is Tom Brady. By virtue of his play, you could argue that the other constant is the excellence of the New England Patriots.
Led by Brady, the Patriots again have the top-ranked offense but unlike in years past Brady has actually been provided with support from a strong running game.
The balance of the Patriots offense is remarkable with Brady throwing for the fifth most yards while Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen have combined for the seventh most rushing yards.
Curiously for the Patriots, the balanced attack has led to inconclusive reference points to determine if Brady is playing with increased efficiency.
By one measure Brady has been able to cut down on his mistakes and has only thrown four interceptions, tied for a career low.
However, despite the presence of a running game to keep defences honest, Brady’s completion percentage the lowest he has had for a full season since 2006.
The problem that Brady in his candidacy for MVP is his past body of work. His MVP seasons of 2007 and 2010 saw him play the position of quarterback at a level rarely if ever seen before.
In 2007 Brady and the Patriots smashed record after record and in 2010 Brady was still devastatingly efficient.
Not only has Brady benchmarked himself through his MVP seasons he elevated his standards in 2011 and wasn’t even runner-up this past season despite by some measure having the best season of his career after throwing for 5,235 yards and 39 touchdowns.
When applying objectivity, exclusively looking at Brady’s statistics in 2012 when compared to his other years, it seems a little pedestrian.
This is the curse of Brady’s sustained excellence. His greatness has us accepting it as standard rather than appreciating it for what it is. This is the exact same issue that undermines Aaron Rodgers’ candidacy.
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers): 293/438, 3,297 Yards, 29 touchdowns, 8 Ints
In a year that saw the position of quarterback played at a level never seen before, Aaron Rodgers’ 2011 season was the by considerable measure one of the best passing seasons ever seen.
When looking at advanced metrics the Packers 2011 season was astronomical. Football Outsiders determined that Rodgers had the fourth best season play by play ever seen.
In 2012 Rodgers has not been as impressive as he was 2011, posting less yards per attempt, reduced completion percentage, fewer touchdowns, lower passer rating, less touchdowns and fewer wins.
Underneath these statistics the Packers have been absolutely decimated by injuries, particularly at the receiver position. Rodgers has had to to rely on players deep on the depth chart such as Randall Cobb and Tom Crabtree to lead the Packers to victory.
Such roster weaknesses have naturally forced Rodgers to push the ball into dangerous positions for the sake of making plays.
The lack of talent Rodgers has had at skill positions combined with the Packers porous offensive line has pressured Rodgers and has reduced his margin for error to near zero.
If Rodgers plays poorly (see Giants game) the Packers have zero hope of winning. In 2012 Rodgers has exemplified the meaning of value to an extent only ever seen in the absence of a great player such as Peyton Manning in 2011.
Rodgers is the best quarterback in the NFL but with the Packers looking less dominant than last season there is no chance that Rodgers will win the award.
In my opinion the MVP must be awarded to Adrian Peterson.
Peterson’s importance to his team is second to none. Hopefully the debate over his candidacy does not devolve into the recent baseball MVP debate in which the only chance the eventual winner Miguel Cabrera was perceived to have was to win the triple crown (league leader in batting average, hits and home runs).
Peterson does not have to break Dickerson’s record to win the award and if he is unable, hopefully he isn’t left with the conciliatory Offensive Player of the Year as Chris Johnson was awarded after breaking 2000 yards in 2009.
With that all said, who is your MVP?
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